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随着现货比特币交易所交易基金的成功推出,美国加密货币监管形势现在看起来更加乐观
2024 was a big year for crypto, with the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), improving U.S. crypto regulatory outlook and bullish price action.
2024 年对于加密货币来说是重要的一年,随着现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出,美国加密货币监管前景的改善和看涨的价格走势。
But 2025 could be even bigger, according to Bitwise Asset Management.
但据 Bitwise Asset Management 称,2025 年规模可能更大。
The company, which specializes in developing crypto investment products, laid out 10 crypto predictions for the year to come in a report released Wednesday. The predictions were penned by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen.
该公司专门开发加密货币投资产品,在周三发布的一份报告中列出了未来一年的 10 个加密货币预测。这些预测由 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 和研究主管 Ryan Rasmussen 撰写。
The report's first prediction is that all major cryptocurrencies will set new record highs.
该报告的第一个预测是所有主要加密货币都将创下新的纪录高点。
Bitcoin will push to $200,000, Bitwise said, while ether will hit $7,000 and solana will more than triple to reach $750.
Bitwise 表示,比特币将升至 20 万美元,而以太币将达到 7,000 美元,solana 将增长两倍以上,达到 750 美元。
According to Bitwise, bitcoin's rise will be fueled by even bigger ETF inflows than in 2024.
据 Bitwise 称,比特币的上涨将受到比 2024 年更大规模的 ETF 流入的推动。
That's a bold statement considering the success of the ETFs already, but the team noted that it's not unusual for ETFs to take in larger flows in year two versus year one. They also pointed out that major wirehouses are only now finishing up their due diligence on the products and investors are feeling more comfortable increasing their exposure to bitcoin.
考虑到 ETF 已经取得的成功,这是一个大胆的声明,但该团队指出,ETF 在第二年吸收比第一年更大的资金流并不罕见。他们还指出,主要的电信公司现在才完成对产品的尽职调查,投资者对增加比特币投资感到更加放心。
There's also the possibility that the U.S. Department of Labor won't be so adversarial towards the sector anymore, which according to Bitwise could enable tens of billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets from 401(k) plans.
美国劳工部也有可能不再对该行业抱有如此敌对态度,据 Bitwise 称,这可能会让数百亿美元从 401(k) 计划流入加密资产。
And a potential bitcoin arms race — kicked off by U.S. politicians’ plans to constitute a strategic bitcoin reserve — would certainly help move the price upwards. Bitwise predicted that the number of countries holding bitcoin will double in 2025, going from nine to eighteen.
而一场潜在的比特币军备竞赛——由美国政客建立比特币战略储备的计划引发——肯定会有助于推高价格。 Bitwise 预测,到 2025 年,持有比特币的国家数量将增加一倍,从 9 个增加到 18 个。
Other possibilities for 2025, according to Bitwise:
据 Bitwise 称,2025 年的其他可能性:
Stablecoins will likely benefit from clear legislation in the U.S. and fintech integrations, as well as rising prices, and double their market capitalization to reach $400 billion.
稳定币可能会受益于美国明确的立法和金融科技整合以及价格上涨,使其市值翻一番,达到 4000 亿美元。
Meanwhile, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) could see their value shoot past $50 billion as Wall Street continues to integrate into the sector.
与此同时,随着华尔街继续融入该行业,代币化现实世界资产 (RWA) 的价值可能会突破 500 亿美元。
And the 2025 memecoin mania could even top this year's, as AI agents are making it easier than ever to launch tokens.
2025 年 memecoin 的狂热甚至可能会超过今年,因为人工智能代理正在使发行代币变得比以往任何时候都容易。
Crypto companies will also have a good year, Bitwise predicted.
Bitwise 预测,加密货币公司也将迎来美好的一年。
A host of crypto companies could launch initial public offerings (IPOs), Bitwise said, with stablecoin issuer Circle, crypto lending firm Figure, on-chain data company Chainalysis, crypto exchange Kraken and crypto custodian Anchorage Digital being the most likely to do so.
Bitwise 表示,许多加密货币公司可能会进行首次公开募股 (IPO),其中稳定币发行商 Circle、加密货币借贷公司 Figure、链上数据公司 Chainaanalysis、加密货币交易所 Kraken 和加密货币托管公司 Anchorage Digital 最有可能这样做。
Already public for several years, crypto exchange Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) CCOIN could see its stock top $700 per share, or more than double the current level, Bitwise said, which would mean it surpasses Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in the world.
Bitwise 表示,已经上市数年的加密货币交易所 Coinbase(纳斯达克股票代码:COIN)CCOIN 的股价可能会达到每股 700 美元,是目前水平的两倍多,这意味着它将超越嘉信理财 (Charles Schwab),成为全球最有价值的券商。
Furthermore, Bitwise said that could lead to Coinbase being included in the S&P 500. Together with MicroStrategy's (NASDAQ:MSTR) likely inclusion into the Nasdaq 100, that could mean that almost every U.S. investor will have exposure to crypto through these investment vehicles.
此外,Bitwise 表示,这可能导致 Coinbase 被纳入标准普尔 500 指数。再加上 MicroStrategy(纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)可能被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数,这可能意味着几乎每个美国投资者都将通过这些投资工具接触加密货币。
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