BTC公牛今年不会因震撼的波动而动摇

加密公牛今年不会因震撼的波动而动摇

Crypto bulls aren't shaken by the jarring volatility this year, but betting markets think there are strong odds the token has just about peaked in 2025.

加密公牛今年的动荡并没有动摇，但博彩市场认为，代币在2025年达到顶峰。

While betting markets predict that bitcoin will likely edge above its record high of around $109,000 reached in January, bettors don't see much upside from there — and even if the token is to breach new highs, speculators are also gearing up for a deeper decline.

尽管投注市场预测，比特币可能会超过其1月达到109,000美元左右的创纪录高度的优势，但赌注从那里看不到太多的上升空间 - 即使代币要违反新的高高，投机者也在为更深的下降而努力。

A Polymarket bet with trading volume of over $5 million indicates 61% odds that the apex token will hit $110,000 in 2025, barely above its all-time high.

交易量超过500万美元的Polymarket赌注表明，最高令牌将在2025年达到110,000美元，几乎高于其历史最高水平。

Beyond that, confidence tapers off. The chances that bitcoin will reach $150,000 or $200,000 this year are 29% and 14% on the platform, respectively.

除此之外，信心会消失。今年比特币将达到150,000美元或200,000美元的机会分别为29％和14％。

The majority of Polymarket speculators see bitcoin dipping to around $70,000. Those betting on the Kalshi exchange are even gloomier, predicting the token could bottom around $64,000, the lowest level since last October.

大多数聚合物投机者认为比特币降至$ 70,000。那些在卡尔西交易所进行的投注甚至更令人沮丧，预测令牌可能会降低约64,000美元，这是自去年10月以来的最低水平。

The pessimism isn't limited to bitcoin, either. Polymarket bettors see ethereum, the second-largest crypto, hitting $1,500 this year, about 24% lower than its price on Friday.

悲观主义也不仅限于比特币。 Polymarket Bettors看到以太坊（以太坊）是第二大加密货币，今年达到1,500美元，比周五的价格低24％。

Since bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $109,026 in January, enthusiasm has fallen off dramatically amid a whirlwind of economic concerns that have hurt risk assets.

自从一月份比特币飙升至历史最高点109,026美元以来，由于经济问题造成了损害风险资产的旋风，热情急剧下降。

Recession talk and stubborn inflation have helped trigger a correction in digital assets. Bitcoin plunged below $80,000 last week, while the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped into "extreme fear" territory.

经济衰退和顽固的通货膨胀有助于引发数字资产的更正。上周，比特币下跌低于80,000美元，而CoinMarketCap加密货币的恐惧和贪婪指数下降到了“极端恐惧”领域。

Other factors, such as a major crypto hack and chaos in memecoins, have helped dampen sentiment.

其他因素，例如Memecoins中的主要加密货币和混乱，也有助于抑制情绪。

The bulls don't budge

公牛不跳动

The bulls are undaunted.

公牛并不畏惧。

"Crypto skeptics can cringe all along, but it remains hard to ignore the timeline. We are in a new era. It still screams bullish to us," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note published March 3. "We still think Bitcoin is headed to $200K."

伯恩斯坦分析师在3月3日发布的一份票据中写道：“加密怀疑论者一直很难忽略时间表。我们处于新时代。它仍然对我们尖叫看涨。”

This type of thinking isn't unique to the investment firm, which cited that industry sentiment — unlike the market's — has never been better.

这种类型的想法不是投资公司所独有的，这引用了这种行业情绪（与市场不同）从来没有更好。

Under President Donald Trump, stringent regulation of crypto is easing, while friendly policies are beginning to emerge — even if they're taking more time than originally expected.

在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的领导下，对加密货币的严格监管正在放松，而友好的政策开始出现 - 即使他们花费的时间超过了最初的预期。

It's for similar reasons that others have reiterated their high-end forecasts in recent weeks. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick is even more convinced that bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the year's end as macro issues prompt rate cuts, which would be bullish for bitcoin.

出于类似的原因，其他人最近几周重申了他们的高端预测。标准特许分析师杰夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）更加坚信，随着宏观发行迅速降低速度降低，比特币将在年底达到200,000美元，这对比特币来说是看好的。

21Shares strategists see a similar outcome and expect lower interest rates to increase crypto liquidity and boost bitcoin to $150,000.

21Shares战略家看到了类似的结果，并期望降低的利率将加密流动性提高，并将比特币提高到150,000美元。

Given the importance of Fed policy, concerned crypto investors should watch upcoming inflation data to determine when momentum will return, Amberdata's head of research Mike Marshall told Business Insider.

鉴于美联储政策的重要性，有关加密货币投资者应关注即将到来的通货膨胀数据，以确定何时会恢复势头。

Still others expect much higher figures, with Strategy founder and bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor calling a $444,000 year-end price for bitcoin.

还有一些人期望更高的数字，战略创始人和比特币传教士迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的比特币价格为444,000美元。

"To shake long-term conviction, you'd need more than short-term price action; you'd need real structural setbacks, like stalled ETF flows, regulatory whiplash, or a breakdown in on-chain fundamentals. So far, none of that has happened," Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told BI.

“要动摇长期的信念，您还需要短期的价格行动；您需要真正的结构性挫折，例如停滞的ETF流量，监管鞭打或链链基本原理的故障。到目前为止，这都没有发生。”