BTC公牛今年不會因震撼的波動而動搖

加密公牛今年不會因震撼的波動而動搖

Crypto bulls aren't shaken by the jarring volatility this year, but betting markets think there are strong odds the token has just about peaked in 2025.

加密公牛今年的動盪並沒有動搖，但博彩市場認為，代幣在2025年達到頂峰。

While betting markets predict that bitcoin will likely edge above its record high of around $109,000 reached in January, bettors don't see much upside from there — and even if the token is to breach new highs, speculators are also gearing up for a deeper decline.

儘管投注市場預測，比特幣可能會超過其1月達到109,000美元左右的創紀錄高度的優勢，但賭注從那裡看不到太多的上升空間 - 即使代幣要違反新的高高，投機者也在為更深的下降而努力。

A Polymarket bet with trading volume of over $5 million indicates 61% odds that the apex token will hit $110,000 in 2025, barely above its all-time high.

交易量超過500萬美元的Polymarket賭注表明，最高令牌將在2025年達到110,000美元，幾乎高於其歷史最高水平。

Beyond that, confidence tapers off. The chances that bitcoin will reach $150,000 or $200,000 this year are 29% and 14% on the platform, respectively.

除此之外，信心會消失。今年比特幣將達到150,000美元或200,000美元的機會分別為29％和14％。

The majority of Polymarket speculators see bitcoin dipping to around $70,000. Those betting on the Kalshi exchange are even gloomier, predicting the token could bottom around $64,000, the lowest level since last October.

大多數聚合物投機者認為比特幣降至$ 70,000。那些在卡爾西交易所進行的投注甚至更令人沮喪，預測令牌可能會降低約64,000美元，這是自去年10月以來的最低水平。

The pessimism isn't limited to bitcoin, either. Polymarket bettors see ethereum, the second-largest crypto, hitting $1,500 this year, about 24% lower than its price on Friday.

悲觀主義也不僅限於比特幣。 Polymarket Bettors看到以太坊（以太坊）是第二大加密貨幣，今年達到1,500美元，比周五的價格低24％。

Since bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $109,026 in January, enthusiasm has fallen off dramatically amid a whirlwind of economic concerns that have hurt risk assets.

自從一月份比特幣飆升至歷史最高點109,026美元以來，由於經濟問題造成了損害風險資產的旋風，熱情急劇下降。

Recession talk and stubborn inflation have helped trigger a correction in digital assets. Bitcoin plunged below $80,000 last week, while the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped into "extreme fear" territory.

經濟衰退和頑固的通貨膨脹有助於引發數字資產的更正。上週，比特幣下跌低於80,000美元，而CoinMarketCap加密貨幣的恐懼和貪婪指數下降到了“極端恐懼”領域。

Other factors, such as a major crypto hack and chaos in memecoins, have helped dampen sentiment.

其他因素，例如Memecoins中的主要加密貨幣和混亂，也有助於抑制情緒。

The bulls don't budge

公牛不跳動

The bulls are undaunted.

公牛並不畏懼。

"Crypto skeptics can cringe all along, but it remains hard to ignore the timeline. We are in a new era. It still screams bullish to us," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note published March 3. "We still think Bitcoin is headed to $200K."

伯恩斯坦分析師在3月3日發布的一份票據中寫道：“加密懷疑論者一直很難忽略時間表。我們處於新時代。它仍然對我們尖叫看漲。”

This type of thinking isn't unique to the investment firm, which cited that industry sentiment — unlike the market's — has never been better.

這種類型的想法不是投資公司所獨有的，這引用了這種行業情緒（與市場不同）從來沒有更好。

Under President Donald Trump, stringent regulation of crypto is easing, while friendly policies are beginning to emerge — even if they're taking more time than originally expected.

在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統的領導下，對加密貨幣的嚴格監管正在放鬆，而友好的政策開始出現 - 即使他們花費的時間超過了最初的預期。

It's for similar reasons that others have reiterated their high-end forecasts in recent weeks. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick is even more convinced that bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the year's end as macro issues prompt rate cuts, which would be bullish for bitcoin.

出於類似的原因，其他人最近幾週重申了他們的高端預測。標準特許分析師傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）更加堅信，隨著宏觀發行迅速降低速度降低，比特幣將在年底達到200,000美元，這對比特幣來說是看好的。

21Shares strategists see a similar outcome and expect lower interest rates to increase crypto liquidity and boost bitcoin to $150,000.

21Shares戰略家看到了類似的結果，並期望降低的利率將加密流動性提高，並將比特幣提高到150,000美元。

Given the importance of Fed policy, concerned crypto investors should watch upcoming inflation data to determine when momentum will return, Amberdata's head of research Mike Marshall told Business Insider.

鑑於美聯儲政策的重要性，有關加密貨幣投資者應關注即將到來的通貨膨脹數據，以確定何時會恢復勢頭。

Still others expect much higher figures, with Strategy founder and bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor calling a $444,000 year-end price for bitcoin.

還有一些人期望更高的數字，戰略創始人和比特幣傳教士邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的比特幣價格為444,000美元。

"To shake long-term conviction, you'd need more than short-term price action; you'd need real structural setbacks, like stalled ETF flows, regulatory whiplash, or a breakdown in on-chain fundamentals. So far, none of that has happened," Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told BI.

“要動搖長期的信念，您還需要短期的價格行動；您需要真正的結構性挫折，例如停滯的ETF流量，監管鞭打或鍊鍊基本原理的故障。到目前為止，這都沒有發生。”