“2025 年将是加密货币的突破年”

2024 年是比特币和更广泛的加密货币生态系统的历史性转折点。今年，首批比特币和以太坊 ETF 将推出，标志着机构的真正采用。比特币将首次突破 10 万美元大关，而稳定币则继续巩固美元在全球的主导地位。

2024 is a historic turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This year, the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will be launched, marking true institutional adoption. Bitcoin will break the $100,000 barrier for the first time, while stablecoins continue to solidify the dollar's dominance globally. To further drive this momentum, the winning U.S. presidential candidate will make support for Bitcoin a core pillar of their campaign.

2024 年是比特币和更广泛的加密货币生态系统的历史性转折点。今年，首批比特币和以太坊 ETF 将推出，标志着机构的真正采用。比特币将首次突破 10 万美元大关，而稳定币则继续巩固美元在全球的主导地位。为了进一步推动这一势头，获胜的美国总统候选人将对比特币的支持作为其竞选的核心支柱。

Overall, these milestones solidify 2024 as the year the crypto industry proves itself to be an unstoppable force on the global stage. As the industry shifts its focus to 2025, here are seven major predictions for significant events that may occur next year.

总体而言，这些里程碑巩固了 2024 年加密货币行业在全球舞台上证明自己是一股不可阻挡的力量的一年。随着行业焦点转向2025年，以下是对明年可能发生的重大事件的七大预测。

1) A major country in the G7 or BRICS will establish and announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve

1）G7或金砖国家中的一个主要国家将建立并宣布比特币战略储备

The Trump administration proposed establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) for the U.S., sparking much debate and speculation. While adding Bitcoin to the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet would require significant political will and congressional approval, merely proposing this initiative has far-reaching implications.

特朗普政府提议为美国建立比特币战略储备（SBR），引发了诸多争论和猜测。虽然将比特币添加到美国财政部的资产负债表中需要巨大的政治意愿和国会的批准，但仅仅提出这一举措就具有深远的影响。

By signaling the possibility of an SBR, the U.S. is effectively inviting other major countries to consider similar measures. Game theory suggests that these countries may be incentivized to take preemptive action, potentially securing a strategic advantage in diversifying national reserves ahead of the U.S. The limited supply of Bitcoin and its emerging role as a digital store of value may heighten the urgency for countries to act swiftly.

通过暗示建立SBR的可能性，美国实际上是在邀请其他主要国家考虑类似的措施。博弈论表明，这些国家可能会被激励采取先发制人的行动，从而有可能领先于美国，在实现国家储备多元化方面获得战略优势。比特币的供应有限及其作为数字价值储存手段的新兴作用可能会加剧各国采取行动的紧迫性很快。

Now, a "who will be first" race is underway to see which major country will be the first to incorporate Bitcoin into its national reserves, holding it alongside gold, foreign currencies, and government bonds for asset diversification. This move would not only solidify Bitcoin's status as a global reserve asset but could also reshape the landscape of international finance, having profound implications for economic and geopolitical power structures. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by any major economy could mark the beginning of a new era in sovereign wealth management.

现在，一场“谁先谁先”的竞赛正在进行，看看哪个主要国家将第一个将比特币纳入国家储备，与黄金、外币和政府债券一起持有，以实现资产多元化。此举不仅将巩固比特币作为全球储备资产的地位，还可能重塑国际金融格局，对经济和地缘政治权力结构产生深远影响。任何主要经济体建立比特币战略储备都可能标志着主权财富管理新时代的开始。

2) Stablecoins will continue to grow, doubling to over $400 billion

2）稳定币将继续增长，翻倍至超过4000亿美元

Stablecoins have become one of the most successful mainstream use cases for cryptocurrencies, bridging traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. Hundreds of millions of people globally use stablecoins for remittances, everyday transactions, and to hedge against local currency volatility by leveraging the relative stability of the dollar.

稳定币已成为加密货币最成功的主流用例之一，连接着传统金融和加密生态系统。全球有数亿人使用稳定币进行汇款、日常交易，并利用美元的相对稳定性来对冲本币波动。

In 2024, the circulation of stablecoins will reach an all-time high of $200 billion, with market leaders being Tether and Circle. These digital currencies rely on blockchain networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron to facilitate seamless, borderless transactions.

到 2024 年，稳定币的流通量将达到 2000 亿美元的历史新高，市场领导者是 Tether 和 Circle。这些数字货币依赖于以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等区块链网络来促进无缝、无边界的交易。

Looking ahead, the growth of stablecoins is expected to accelerate in 2025, potentially doubling to over $400 billion. The passage of specialized legislation for stablecoins will drive this growth, likely providing much-needed regulatory clarity and fostering innovation in the industry. U.S. regulators are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of stablecoins in reinforcing the dollar's global dominance and solidifying its status as the world's reserve currency.

展望未来，稳定币的增长预计将在 2025 年加速，可能翻一番，达到 4000 亿美元以上。针对稳定币的专门立法的通过将推动这一增长，可能提供急需的监管清晰度并促进行业创新。美国监管机构越来越认识到稳定币在加强美元全球主导地位和巩固其世界储备货币地位方面的战略重要性。

3) Bitcoin DeFi supported by L2 will become a major growth trend

3）L2支持的比特币DeFi将成为主要增长趋势

Bitcoin is transcending its role as a store of value, with Layer 2 (L2) networks like Stacks, BOB, Babylon, and CoreDAO unlocking the potential of a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. These L2s enhance Bitcoin's scalability and programmability, enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to flourish on the most secure and decentralized blockchain.

比特币正在超越其作为价值储存手段的角色，Stacks、BOB、Babylon 和 CoreDAO 等第 2 层 (L2) 网络释放了蓬勃发展的比特币 DeFi 生态系统的潜力。这些 L2 增强了比特币的可扩展性和可编程性，使去中心化金融 (DeFi) 应用程序能够在最安全和去中心化的区块链上蓬勃发展。

2024 will be a transformative year for Stacks, with the launch of the Nakamoto upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto upgrade allows Stacks to inherit 100% of Bitcoin's determinism and introduces faster block speeds, significantly improving user experience. Meanwhile, the trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset sBTC, launched in December, enables seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, swapping, and staking—all built on the security of Bitcoin.

随着 Nakamoto 升级和 sBTC 的推出，2024 年对于 Stacks 来说将是变革的一年。中本聪的升级让Stacks继承了比特币100%​​的确定性，并引入了更快的出块速度，显着改善了用户体验。与此同时，与比特币挂钩的去信任资产 sBTC 于 12 月推出，可以无缝参与借贷、交换和质押等 DeFi 活动，所有这些都建立在比特币的安全性之上。

Previously, Bitcoin holders seeking DeFi opportunities were forced to move their Bitcoin to other networks like Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians like WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2s mitigate these risks, providing a more decentralized alternative that allows Bitcoin to operate natively within its own ecosystem.

此前，寻求 DeFi 机会的比特币持有者被迫将其比特币转移到以太坊等其他网络。这一过程依赖于 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化托管机构，使用户面临中心化和审查风险。比特币 L2 减轻了这些风险，提供了一种更加去中心化的替代方案，允许比特币在自己的生态系统中本地运行。

Looking to 2025, Bitcoin DeFi is poised for exponential growth. I predict that the total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin L2s will exceed the current $24 billion represented by wrapped Bitcoin derivatives, approximately 1.2% of Bitcoin's total supply. As Bitcoin's market cap reaches $2 trillion, L2 networks will enable users to unlock this immense potential value more securely and efficiently, solidifying Bitcoin's role as a cornerstone of decentralized finance.

展望 2025 年，比特币 DeFi 有望呈指数级增长。我预测，比特币 L2 的锁定总价值 (TVL) 将超过目前以打包比特币衍生品为代表的 240 亿美元，约占比特币总供应量的 1.2%。随着比特币市值达到2万亿美元，L2网络将使用户能够更安全、更高效地释放这一巨大的潜在价值，巩固比特币作为去中心化金融基石的作用。

4) Bitcoin ETFs will continue to surge, with new crypto-focused ETFs emerging

4) 比特币 ETF 将继续激增，新的以加密货币为重点的 ETF 不断涌现

The launch of spot

现货推出