“2025 年將是加密貨幣的突破年”

2024 年是比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統的歷史性轉折點。今年，首批比特幣和以太坊 ETF 將推出，標誌著機構的真正採用。比特幣將首次突破 10 萬美元大關，而穩定幣則繼續鞏固美元在全球的主導地位。

2024 is a historic turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This year, the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will be launched, marking true institutional adoption. Bitcoin will break the $100,000 barrier for the first time, while stablecoins continue to solidify the dollar's dominance globally. To further drive this momentum, the winning U.S. presidential candidate will make support for Bitcoin a core pillar of their campaign.

2024 年是比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統的歷史性轉折點。今年，首批比特幣和以太坊 ETF 將推出，標誌著機構的真正採用。比特幣將首次突破 10 萬美元大關，而穩定幣則繼續鞏固美元在全球的主導地位。為了進一步推動這一勢頭，獲勝的美國總統候選人將對比特幣的支持作為其競選的核心支柱。

Overall, these milestones solidify 2024 as the year the crypto industry proves itself to be an unstoppable force on the global stage. As the industry shifts its focus to 2025, here are seven major predictions for significant events that may occur next year.

總體而言，這些里程碑鞏固了 2024 年加密貨幣產業在全球舞台上證明自己是一股不可阻擋的力量的一年。隨著產業焦點轉向2025年，以下是明年可能發生的重大事件的七大預測。

1) A major country in the G7 or BRICS will establish and announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve

1）G7或金磚國家中的一個主要國家將建立並宣布比特幣戰略儲備

The Trump administration proposed establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) for the U.S., sparking much debate and speculation. While adding Bitcoin to the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet would require significant political will and congressional approval, merely proposing this initiative has far-reaching implications.

川普政府提議為美國建立比特幣戰略儲備（SBR），引發了許多爭論和猜測。雖然將比特幣添加到美國財政部的資產負債表中需要巨大的政治意願和國會的批准，但僅僅提出這項措施就具有深遠的影響。

By signaling the possibility of an SBR, the U.S. is effectively inviting other major countries to consider similar measures. Game theory suggests that these countries may be incentivized to take preemptive action, potentially securing a strategic advantage in diversifying national reserves ahead of the U.S. The limited supply of Bitcoin and its emerging role as a digital store of value may heighten the urgency for countries to act swiftly.

透過暗示建立SBR的可能性，美國實際上是在邀請其他主要國家考慮類似的措施。博弈論表明，這些國家可能會被激勵採取先發製人的行動，從而有可能領先於美國，在實現國家儲備多元化方面獲得戰略優勢。加劇各國採取行動的迫切性很快。

Now, a "who will be first" race is underway to see which major country will be the first to incorporate Bitcoin into its national reserves, holding it alongside gold, foreign currencies, and government bonds for asset diversification. This move would not only solidify Bitcoin's status as a global reserve asset but could also reshape the landscape of international finance, having profound implications for economic and geopolitical power structures. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by any major economy could mark the beginning of a new era in sovereign wealth management.

現在，一場「誰先誰先」的競賽正在進行，看看哪個主要國家將第一個將比特幣納入國家儲備，與黃金、外幣和政府債券一起持有，以實現資產多元化。此舉不僅將鞏固比特幣作為全球儲備資產的地位，也可能重塑國際金融格局，對經濟和地緣政治權力結構產生深遠影響。任何主要經濟體建立比特幣戰略儲備都可能標誌著主權財富管理新時代的開始。

2) Stablecoins will continue to grow, doubling to over $400 billion

2）穩定幣將持續成長，翻倍至超過4000億美元

Stablecoins have become one of the most successful mainstream use cases for cryptocurrencies, bridging traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. Hundreds of millions of people globally use stablecoins for remittances, everyday transactions, and to hedge against local currency volatility by leveraging the relative stability of the dollar.

穩定幣已成為加密貨幣最成功的主流用例之一，連接傳統金融和加密生態系統。全球有數億人使用穩定幣進行匯款、日常交易，並利用美元的相對穩定性來對沖本幣波動。

In 2024, the circulation of stablecoins will reach an all-time high of $200 billion, with market leaders being Tether and Circle. These digital currencies rely on blockchain networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Tron to facilitate seamless, borderless transactions.

到 2024 年，穩定幣的流通量將達到 2,000 億美元的歷史新高，市場領導者是 Tether 和 Circle。這些數位貨幣依賴以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等區塊鏈網路來促進無縫、無邊界的交易。

Looking ahead, the growth of stablecoins is expected to accelerate in 2025, potentially doubling to over $400 billion. The passage of specialized legislation for stablecoins will drive this growth, likely providing much-needed regulatory clarity and fostering innovation in the industry. U.S. regulators are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of stablecoins in reinforcing the dollar's global dominance and solidifying its status as the world's reserve currency.

展望未來，穩定幣的成長預計將在 2025 年加速，可能翻一番，達到 4,000 億美元以上。針對穩定幣的專門立法的通過將推動這一增長，可能提供急需的監管清晰度並促進行業創新。美國監管機構越來越認識到穩定幣在加強美元的全球主導地位和鞏固其作為世界儲備貨幣的地位方面的戰略重要性。

3) Bitcoin DeFi supported by L2 will become a major growth trend

3）L2支援的比特幣DeFi將成為主要成長趨勢

Bitcoin is transcending its role as a store of value, with Layer 2 (L2) networks like Stacks, BOB, Babylon, and CoreDAO unlocking the potential of a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. These L2s enhance Bitcoin's scalability and programmability, enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to flourish on the most secure and decentralized blockchain.

比特幣正在超越其作為價值儲存手段的角色，Stacks、BOB、Babylon 和 CoreDAO 等第 2 層 (L2) 網路釋放了蓬勃發展的比特幣 DeFi 生態系統的潛力。這些 L2 增強了比特幣的可擴展性和可編程性，使去中心化金融 (DeFi) 應用程式能夠在最安全和去中心化的區塊鏈上蓬勃發展。

2024 will be a transformative year for Stacks, with the launch of the Nakamoto upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto upgrade allows Stacks to inherit 100% of Bitcoin's determinism and introduces faster block speeds, significantly improving user experience. Meanwhile, the trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset sBTC, launched in December, enables seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, swapping, and staking—all built on the security of Bitcoin.

隨著 Nakamoto 升級和 sBTC 的推出，2024 年對 Stacks 來說將是改變的一年。中本聰的升級讓Stacks繼承了比特幣100%的確定性，並引入了更快的出塊速度，顯著改善了用戶體驗。同時，與比特幣掛鉤的去信任資產 sBTC 於 12 月推出，可以無縫參與借貸、交換和質押等 DeFi 活動，所有這些都建立在比特幣的安全性之上。

Previously, Bitcoin holders seeking DeFi opportunities were forced to move their Bitcoin to other networks like Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians like WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2s mitigate these risks, providing a more decentralized alternative that allows Bitcoin to operate natively within its own ecosystem.

此前，尋求 DeFi 機會的比特幣持有者被迫將其比特幣轉移到以太坊等其他網路。這個過程依賴 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化託管機構，使用戶面臨中心化和審查風險。比特幣 L2 減輕了這些風險，提供了一種更去中心化的替代方案，允許比特幣在自己的生態系統中運行。

Looking to 2025, Bitcoin DeFi is poised for exponential growth. I predict that the total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin L2s will exceed the current $24 billion represented by wrapped Bitcoin derivatives, approximately 1.2% of Bitcoin's total supply. As Bitcoin's market cap reaches $2 trillion, L2 networks will enable users to unlock this immense potential value more securely and efficiently, solidifying Bitcoin's role as a cornerstone of decentralized finance.

展望 2025 年，比特幣 DeFi 可望呈指數級增長。我預測，比特幣 L2 的鎖定總價值 (TVL) 將超過目前以打包比特幣衍生品為代表的 240 億美元，約佔比特幣總供應量的 1.2%。隨著比特幣市值達到2兆美元，L2網路將使用戶能夠更安全、更有效率地釋放這一巨大的潛在價值，並鞏固比特幣作為去中心化金融基石的作用。

4) Bitcoin ETFs will continue to surge, with new crypto-focused ETFs emerging

4) 比特幣 ETF 將持續激增，新的加密貨幣 ETF 不斷湧現

The launch of spot

現貨推出