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BNB Chain的原生代币BNB(BNB)在9月27日飙升至614美元,三周内上涨了25.7%。这是自 2024 年 6 月以来 BNB 首次收于该水平之上。
BNB's recent price surge is likely not due to CZ's release
BNB 最近的价格飙升很可能不是由于 CZ 的释放
BNB's recent price surge to above $600 has sparked speculation, especially considering that Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao was released from US custody on Sept. 26 after pleading guilty to a felony charge in April. However, there is little evidence to suggest that CZ's legal troubles are directly impacting BNB's market performance.
BNB 最近的价格飙升至 600 美元以上引发了猜测,特别是考虑到币安创始人赵长鹏 (CZ) 赵在 4 月份认罪后于 9 月 26 日从美国拘留中获释。然而,几乎没有证据表明 CZ 的法律问题直接影响了 BNB 的市场表现。
BNB's value is primarily driven by its utility within the Binance ecosystem, including launchpads incentives, trading fee discounts, and within the BNB Chain's decentralized applications (DApps). Hence, to determine whether BNB can continue to rally and potentially reclaim its all-time high, one must assess the demand for BNB across its ecosystem.
BNB 的价值主要由其在币安生态系统中的效用驱动,包括启动板激励、交易费用折扣以及 BNB 链的去中心化应用程序 (DApp)。因此,要确定 BNB 能否继续上涨并有可能重回历史高点,必须评估整个生态系统对 BNB 的需求。
More importantly, to gauge the sustainability of BNB's price rally, one must compare BNB Chain's performance to rival blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. The total value locked (TVL) is a key metric that tracks the deposits locked in a network's smart contracts, making it a crucial indicator of blockchain activity.
更重要的是,为了衡量 BNB 价格上涨的可持续性,必须将 BNB Chain 的表现与以太坊和 Solana 等竞争对手的区块链进行比较。锁定总价值(TVL)是跟踪网络智能合约中锁定存款的关键指标,使其成为区块链活动的关键指标。
For the BNB Chain, the TVL has stagnated around 8.2 million BNB over the past two months, according to DefiLlama data. In comparison, deposits on the Ethereum network increased by 8% to 19.2 million ETH, while Solana's TVL surged by 20% to 35.7 million SOL during the same period.
根据 DefiLlama 的数据,对于 BNB 链来说,过去两个月的 TVL 停滞在 820 万个 BNB 左右。相比之下,以太坊网络上的存款增长了 8%,达到 1,920 万 ETH,而 Solana 的 TVL 同期飙升 20%,达到 3,570 万 SOL。
In terms of DApp volumes, BNB Chain saw a 35% decline, with $26.7 billion in total activity over the past 30 days, according to DappRadar. This trend closely mirrors Ethereum, which experienced a 36% drop to $129.1 billion in the same timeframe. Similarly, Avalanche's DApp volume dropped by 24%, totaling $1 billion in the 30 days leading up to Sept. 27.
根据 DappRadar 的数据,就 DApp 交易量而言,BNB Chain 下降了 35%,过去 30 天的总活动额为 267 亿美元。这一趋势与以太坊非常相似,以太坊在同一时间段内下跌了 36%,至 1,291 亿美元。同样,截至 9 月 27 日的 30 天内,Avalanche 的 DApp 交易量下降了 24%,总计 10 亿美元。
BNB Chain activity does not stand out from competing blockchains
BNB 链的活动在竞争区块链中并不突出
Despite BNB Chain's declining volumes, this pattern appears consistent with the broader cryptocurrency market. However, not all DApps require large transaction volumes or deposits to be successful.
尽管 BNB Chain 的交易量不断下降,但这种模式似乎与更广泛的加密货币市场一致。然而,并非所有 DApp 都需要大量交易或存款才能成功。
Sectors like non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces, collectibles, mini-games, social networks, prediction platforms, and other Web3 services often prioritize user engagement over transaction volume. Thus, the number of active users is another important measure of a network's health.
不可替代代币 (NFT) 市场、收藏品、迷你游戏、社交网络、预测平台和其他 Web3 服务等行业通常将用户参与度置于交易量之上。因此,活跃用户数量是衡量网络健康状况的另一个重要指标。
For BNB Chain, the number of active addresses interacting with DApps increased by 4% over the past 30 days, reaching 2.47 million, according to DappRadar. In contrast, the Ethereum network saw a 23% decline in active addresses, falling to 1.51 million over the same period.
根据 DappRadar 的数据,BNB Chain 与 DApp 交互的活跃地址数量在过去 30 天内增加了 4%,达到 247 万个。相比之下,以太坊网络的活跃地址下降了 23%,同期降至 151 万个。
Meanwhile, Avalanche's active addresses increased by 1% to 57,870, while Polygon experienced a 17% decrease in users during this period.
与此同时,Avalanche 的活跃地址增加了 1%,达到 57,870 个,而 Polygon 在此期间的用户数量减少了 17%。
Hence, there has been no major development in the BNB Chain ecosystem that would justify BNB outperforming the broader altcoin market. Additionally, there is no evidence to suggest that the release of CZ from U.S. custody is fueling a price surge. As a result, there is little basis to expect BNB to reclaim its all-time high in the near term.
因此,BNB 链生态系统尚未取得重大发展,无法证明 BNB 的表现优于更广泛的山寨币市场。此外,没有证据表明 CZ 从美国监管中释放正在推动价格飙升。因此,预计 BNB 在短期内重回历史高点的依据不大。
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