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资产管理公司 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 周五在社交媒体平台 X 上分享了比特币的最新展望。
Asset management firm Bitwise has updated its analysis on bitcoin, predicting that the crypto could reach six figures sooner than expected, driven by several converging factors.
资产管理公司 Bitwise 更新了对比特币的分析,预测在多种因素的推动下,比特币价格可能会比预期更快达到六位数。
According to the firm’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, the rapid rise in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows is a key factor propelling bitcoin’s trajectory. With billions flowing into spot bitcoin ETFs, Hougan believes the increasing institutional interest is a substantial driver of BTC’s rise.
该公司首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示,交易所交易基金(ETF)流量的快速增长是推动比特币发展轨迹的关键因素。随着数十亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF,Hougan 认为机构兴趣的增加是比特币上涨的重要推动力。
The Bitwise executive also cites the U.S. presidential election as a major influence, with different outcomes likely to affect bitcoin’s future. A potential GOP victory by former U.S. President Donald Trump is seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies, while a Democratic win might pose more regulatory challenges. However, Hougan recently noted that even within the Democratic Party, figures like Representative Maxine Waters have softened their stance, suggesting a potential shift in crypto regulation.
Bitwise 高管还指出,美国总统大选是一个重大影响因素,不同的结果可能会影响比特币的未来。美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的共和党潜在胜利被认为对加密货币有利,而民主党的胜利可能会带来更多监管挑战。然而,Hougan 最近指出,即使在民主党内部,像众议员 Maxine Waters 这样的人物也软化了立场,这表明加密货币监管可能会发生转变。
Economic factors such as the “infinite” U.S. deficits are another driver. With bipartisan acknowledgment of the country’s worsening fiscal imbalance, many investors are turning to bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Additionally, Hougan points out that China’s economic stimulus efforts and global interest rate cuts, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), are contributing to bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
美国“无限”赤字等经济因素是另一个驱动因素。随着两党承认该国财政失衡不断恶化,许多投资者开始转向比特币作为对冲通胀的工具。此外,Hougan 指出,中国的经济刺激措施和全球降息,特别是美联储和欧洲央行(ECB)的降息,正在推动比特币的看涨势头。
Recently, Hougan revised his outlook on how fast bitcoin could rise. Following a 5% surge in BTC’s price, driven by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ proposed regulatory framework for crypto, Hougan noted that even small pieces of favorable news could trigger substantial market movements. He observed that this rally, which funneled $555 million into bitcoin ETFs, illustrates how much “dry powder” is waiting on the sidelines for clearer regulatory conditions. Hougan believes that if regulatory clarity comes sooner, bitcoin could break past $80,000 much faster than anticipated.
最近,Hougan 修改了他对比特币上涨速度的预期。在民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯提出的加密货币监管框架的推动下,比特币价格飙升了 5%,Hougan 指出,即使是很小的利好消息也可能引发大幅市场波动。他观察到,这次反弹向比特币 ETF 注入了 5.55 亿美元,这表明有多少“干粉”正在观望更明确的监管条件。 Hougan 认为,如果监管更加明确,比特币突破 80,000 美元的速度可能比预期快得多。
Moreover, the Bitwise CIO continues to highlight that bitcoin halving creates a supply constraint, which has historically driven prices higher. Lastly, he noted the accumulation of BTC by large holders, or “whales,” signals strong confidence in its long-term potential.
此外,Bitwise 首席信息官继续强调,比特币减半会造成供应限制,这在历史上一直推动价格走高。最后,他指出大持有者(即“鲸鱼”)对比特币的积累表明对其长期潜力充满信心。
In summary, Hougan’s analysis reflects a combination of institutional inflows, political factors, economic policies, and onchain activity driving bitcoin toward a possible six-figure price, with a rapid surge possible as soon as the regulatory environment becomes more favorable.
总之,Hougan 的分析反映了机构资金流入、政治因素、经济政策和链上活动的综合作用,推动比特币价格可能达到六位数,一旦监管环境变得更加有利,比特币价格可能会迅速飙升。
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