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資產管理公司 Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 週五在社群媒體平台 X 上分享了比特幣的最新展望。
Asset management firm Bitwise has updated its analysis on bitcoin, predicting that the crypto could reach six figures sooner than expected, driven by several converging factors.
資產管理公司 Bitwise 更新了對比特幣的分析,預測在多種因素的推動下,比特幣價格可能會比預期更快達到六位數。
According to the firm’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, the rapid rise in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows is a key factor propelling bitcoin’s trajectory. With billions flowing into spot bitcoin ETFs, Hougan believes the increasing institutional interest is a substantial driver of BTC’s rise.
該公司首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示,交易所交易基金(ETF)流量的快速成長是推動比特幣發展軌跡的關鍵因素。隨著數十億美元流入現貨比特幣 ETF,Hougan 認為機構興趣的增加是比特幣上漲的重要動力。
The Bitwise executive also cites the U.S. presidential election as a major influence, with different outcomes likely to affect bitcoin’s future. A potential GOP victory by former U.S. President Donald Trump is seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies, while a Democratic win might pose more regulatory challenges. However, Hougan recently noted that even within the Democratic Party, figures like Representative Maxine Waters have softened their stance, suggesting a potential shift in crypto regulation.
Bitwise 高層也指出,美國總統大選是重大影響因素,不同的結果可能會影響比特幣的未來。美國前總統川普的共和黨潛在勝利被認為對加密貨幣有利,而民主黨的勝利可能會帶來更多監管挑戰。然而,Hougan 最近指出,即使在民主黨內部,像眾議員 Maxine Waters 這樣的人物也軟化了立場,這表明加密貨幣監管可能會轉變。
Economic factors such as the “infinite” U.S. deficits are another driver. With bipartisan acknowledgment of the country’s worsening fiscal imbalance, many investors are turning to bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Additionally, Hougan points out that China’s economic stimulus efforts and global interest rate cuts, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), are contributing to bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
美國「無限」赤字等經濟因素是另一個驅動因素。隨著兩黨承認該國財政失衡不斷惡化,許多投資者開始轉向比特幣作為對沖通貨膨脹的工具。此外,Hougan 指出,中國的經濟刺激措施和全球降息,特別是聯準會和歐洲央行(ECB)的降息,正在推動比特幣的看漲勢頭。
Recently, Hougan revised his outlook on how fast bitcoin could rise. Following a 5% surge in BTC’s price, driven by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ proposed regulatory framework for crypto, Hougan noted that even small pieces of favorable news could trigger substantial market movements. He observed that this rally, which funneled $555 million into bitcoin ETFs, illustrates how much “dry powder” is waiting on the sidelines for clearer regulatory conditions. Hougan believes that if regulatory clarity comes sooner, bitcoin could break past $80,000 much faster than anticipated.
最近,Hougan 修改了他對比特幣上漲速度的預期。在民主黨候選人卡瑪拉哈里斯提出的加密貨幣監管框架的推動下,比特幣價格飆升了 5%,Hougan 指出,即使是很小的利多消息也可能引發大幅市場波動。他觀察到,這次反彈向比特幣 ETF 注入了 5.55 億美元,這表明有多少「乾粉」正在觀望更明確的監管條件。 Hougan 認為,如果監管更加明確,比特幣突破 8 萬美元的速度可能比預期快得多。
Moreover, the Bitwise CIO continues to highlight that bitcoin halving creates a supply constraint, which has historically driven prices higher. Lastly, he noted the accumulation of BTC by large holders, or “whales,” signals strong confidence in its long-term potential.
此外,Bitwise 資訊長繼續強調,比特幣減半會造成供應限制,這在歷史上一直推動價格走高。最後,他指出大持有者或「鯨魚」對比特幣的累積表明對其長期潛力充滿信心。
In summary, Hougan’s analysis reflects a combination of institutional inflows, political factors, economic policies, and onchain activity driving bitcoin toward a possible six-figure price, with a rapid surge possible as soon as the regulatory environment becomes more favorable.
總而言之,Hougan 的分析反映了機構資金流入、政治因素、經濟政策和鏈上活動的綜合作用,推動比特幣價格可能達到六位數,一旦監管環境變得更加有利,比特幣價格可能會迅速飆升。
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