Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes做出了大胆的预测：到2025年底，比特币的价格可能超过250,000美元

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）揭示了对比特币未来的令人震惊的分析。该分析基于对货币政策的最新调整，该政策可能刺激对领先的加密货币的强烈需求。

Co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, predicts that the price of Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of 2025, if the FED decides to pivot towards a quantitative easing (QE) policy in his latest analysis.

Bitmex的联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，如果美联储决定在他的最新分析中旋转量化宽松（QE）政策，那么到2025年底，比特币的价格可能会达到25万美元。

This prediction is based on the idea that the value of Bitcoin is heavily influenced by market expectations regarding the future supply of fiat currency. If the FED increases the supply of dollars by adopting QE, demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin could rise due to the perceived devaluation of traditional currency.

该预测是基于这样的想法，即比特币的价值受到对菲亚特货币未来供应的市场期望的严重影响。如果美联储通过采用量化宽松来增加美元的供应，那么由于传统货币的贬值，对比特币等替代资产的需求可能会上升。

The latest actions by the FED are already showing signs of such a pivot. On April 1, it reduced the capacity for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to only $5 billion per month. According to Hayes, this decision marks the beginning of a bullish cycle for crypto assets.

美联储的最新动作已经显示出这种枢轴的迹象。 4月1日，它的债券减少能力从250亿美元减少到每月仅50亿美元。根据海耶斯的说法，这一决定标志着对加密资产的看涨周期的开始。

Having reached a local low of $76,500 last month, Bitcoin could indeed start its surge towards $250,000.

上个月，比特币达到了76,500美元的当地低点，确实可以开始涨幅至25万美元。

BTC Price: Forecasts Are Contradictory

BTC价格：预测是矛盾的

Not all expert crypto analysts share Arthur Hayes’ optimistic vision. Jamie Coutts from Real Vision estimates, for example, that Bitcoin would hit a peak of $132,000 by the end of 2025. These projections are more conservative. They take into account current market trends, suggesting a less drastic impact of monetary policy on BTC’s price.

并非所有专家加密分析师都分享亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的乐观愿景。例如，来自真实视觉估计的杰米·库特（Jamie Coutts），例如，到2025年底，比特币将达到132,000美元的高峰。这些预测更加保守。他们考虑了当前市场趋势，这表明货币政策对BTC价格的影响较小。

But that’s not all! According to data from Polymarket, only 9% of traders are betting on a Bitcoin at $250,000. The majority (at 60%) believe that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will stabilize around $110,000 in 2025. This sentiment reflects hesitation about the extent of the expected rally for BTC.

但这不是全部！根据Polymarket的数据，只有9％的交易员以25万美元的价格押注比特币。大多数人（60％）认为，旗舰加密货币的价格将在2025年稳定在110,000美元左右。这种情绪反映出对BTC预期集会的程度的犹豫。

While Hayes’ prediction is ambitious, it highlights the importance of monetary policy in determining the price of Bitcoin. Investors will need to closely monitor the FED’s decisions as well as the evolution of the global economy. These could redefine the trajectories of cryptocurrencies in the long term.

尽管海斯的预测是雄心勃勃的，但它突出了货币政策在确定比特币价格方面的重要性。投资者将需要密切监视美联储的决定以及全球经济的发展。从长远来看，这些可以重新定义加密货币的轨迹。

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