Bitmex联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）认为，比特币（BTC）可能会降至70,000美元

Bitmex的联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）认为，比特币（BTC）可能会降至70,000美元，然后集结到新的高点。他认为这是标准的牛市校正。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin (BTC) could drop as low as $70,000 before rallying to new highs. The crypto trader sees this as a standard bull market correction.

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为，比特币（BTC）可能会下降到70,000美元，然后再升级到新的高点。加密交易员认为这是标准的牛市校正。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,105.76, showing a 0.3% gain in the past hour. Over the past 24 hours, it has dropped 2.7%, and over the last week, it has declined 4.0%. The leading cryptocurrency remains 26.37% below its all-time high of $109,786.

比特币目前的交易价格为80,105.76美元，过去一小时的增长率为0.3％。在过去的24小时内，它下降了2.7％，在上周下降了4.0％。领先的加密货币仍低于其历史最高高点109,786的26.37％。

On Monday, BTC fell briefly below the $77,000 level, signaling increasing bearish pressure.

周一，BTC短暂跌至77,000美元的水平，表明看跌压力增加。

What Is Next For Bitcoin Price After $75K Hold Fails?

$ 75K持有后，比特币价格下一步是多少？

According to a new blog post by Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, Bitcoin could still drop to $70,000.

根据加密衍生品交易所Bitmex的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes的新博客文章，比特币仍然可以降至70,000美元。

This aligns with a 36% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,786, which is typical for a bull market.

这与比特币的历史最高额为109,786的36％更正相符，这对于牛市来说是典型的。

Historical Bitcoin cycles suggest that sharp pullbacks are followed by massive rallies.

历史比特币周期表明，急剧的回调之后是大规模的集会。

Also Read: Exclusive: 'It's Not a Matter Of If, But When!' — Ben Armstrong Of 'Crypto Family' Reacts To Sam Bankman-Fried's Jail Conditions In U.S.

另请阅读：独家：“这不是问题，而是什么时候！” - “加密家族”的本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong

Plan is be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market. Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under. THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make...

计划是他妈的耐心。 $ btc的价格可能是$ 70K左右。 36％的校正，从$ 110K ATH，牛市正常v n frorm。然后，我们需要stonks，$ spx和$ ndx才能进入免费秋季。然后，我们需要tradfi muppet才能下来。然后，我们得到了喂养，PBOC，ECB和BOJ，所有人都放松了...

Previously, Hayes warned of Bitcoin sliding to $75,000. The crypto trader noted that there was a large cluster of options contracts in the $70,000-$75,000 range. This could lead to increased volatility if BTC price enters this zone.

以前，海斯警告比特币滑动至75,000美元。加密货币交易员指出，有一大批期权合约在$ 70,000- $ 75,000的范围内。如果BTC价格进入该区域，这可能会导致波动性的增加。

If Bitcoin fails to hold $78,000, then $75,000 will become a critical support level. A further breakdown could trigger liquidations and send BTC toward $70,000.

如果比特币无法持有78,000美元，那么75,000美元将成为关键的支持水平。进一步的故障可能会触发清算，并将BTC送到70,000美元。

Market data shows that traders are entering substantial short positions, and futures volume is increasing. This signals a cautious and selective sentiment among derivatives traders.

市场数据表明，交易者正在进入大量的短职位，而期货量正在增加。这标志着衍生品交易者中谨慎而有选择性的情绪。

Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Bitcoin

宏观经济因素影响比特币

Hayes is also keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks. He noted that while U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are nearing record highs, Bitcoin’s decline indicates underlying liquidity issues.

海耶斯还关注宏观经济风险。他指出，尽管美国股票指数（S＆P 500（SPX）和NASDAQ 100（NDX））接近创纪录的高点，但比特币的下降表明了潜在的流动性问题。

If a major financial institution collapses, central banks—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and Bank of Japan (BOJ)—may quickly intervene with liquidity injections.

如果主要金融机构崩溃了，中央银行（包括美联储（美联储），欧洲中央银行（ECB），中国人民银行（PBOC）和日本银行（BOJ）（BOJ）（BOJ）可能会迅速介入流动性注射。

Once these central banks pivot towards easing their policies, BTC will stage a strong comeback. However, traders trying to “buy the dip” too soon may face extended consolidation before the next uptrend.

一旦这些中央银行转向放大政策，BTC将进行强烈的卷土重来。但是，交易者试图过早地“购买蘸酱”可能会在下一次上升趋势之前面临扩展的合并。

Trump’s Potential Impact on Bitcoin’s Future

特朗普对比特币未来的潜在影响

In a recent blog post, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, discussed the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies on Bitcoin (BTC).

Crypto Exchange Bitmex的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes在最近的博客文章中讨论了唐纳德·特朗普对比特币（BTC）的潜在影响。

According to Hayes, the U.S. economy is currently being sustained by government spending. If Trump slashes expenditures and cuts federal jobs, it could precipitate a recession.

根据海斯的说法，美国经济目前正在政府支出中维持。如果特朗普削减了支出并削减了联邦工作，那可能会造成衰退。

In response, the Federal Reserve might be forced to lower interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing (QE), which would serve to weaken the U.S. dollar. This, in turn, could make Bitcoin a more appealing store of value.

作为回应，美联储可能被迫降低利率并重新引入定量宽松（QE），这将削弱美元。反过来，这可能使比特币成为更具吸引力的价值存储。

If economic instability accelerates, Hayes projects BTC reaching $250,000 by year-end. In a prolonged monetary expansion scenario, he envisions Bitcoin hitting $1 million before the end of Trump’s presidency.

如果经济不稳定加速，海耶斯项目BTC逐年达到25万美元。在延长的货币扩张情况下，他设想比特币在特朗普总统任期结束之前达到100万美元。