Bitmex聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）認為，比特幣（BTC）可能會降至70,000美元

Bitmex的聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）認為，比特幣（BTC）可能會降至70,000美元，然後集結到新的高點。他認為這是標準的牛市校正。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin (BTC) could drop as low as $70,000 before rallying to new highs. The crypto trader sees this as a standard bull market correction.

BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes認為，比特幣（BTC）可能會下降到70,000美元，然後再升級到新的高點。加密交易員認為這是標準的牛市校正。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,105.76, showing a 0.3% gain in the past hour. Over the past 24 hours, it has dropped 2.7%, and over the last week, it has declined 4.0%. The leading cryptocurrency remains 26.37% below its all-time high of $109,786.

比特幣目前的交易價格為80,105.76美元，過去一小時的增長率為0.3％。在過去的24小時內，它下降了2.7％，在上週下降了4.0％。領先的加密貨幣仍低於其歷史最高高點109,786的26.37％。

On Monday, BTC fell briefly below the $77,000 level, signaling increasing bearish pressure.

週一，BTC短暫跌至77,000美元的水平，表明看跌壓力增加。

What Is Next For Bitcoin Price After $75K Hold Fails?

$ 75K持有後，比特幣價格下一步是多少？

According to a new blog post by Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, Bitcoin could still drop to $70,000.

根據加密衍生品交易所Bitmex的前首席執行官Arthur Hayes的新博客文章，比特幣仍然可以降至70,000美元。

This aligns with a 36% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,786, which is typical for a bull market.

這與比特幣的歷史最高額為109,786的36％更正相符，這對於牛市來說是典型的。

Historical Bitcoin cycles suggest that sharp pullbacks are followed by massive rallies.

歷史比特幣週期表明，急劇的回調之後是大規模的集會。

Also Read: Exclusive: 'It's Not a Matter Of If, But When!' — Ben Armstrong Of 'Crypto Family' Reacts To Sam Bankman-Fried's Jail Conditions In U.S.

另請閱讀：獨家：“這不是問題，而是什麼時候！” - “加密家族”的本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong

Plan is be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market. Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under. THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make...

計劃是他媽的耐心。 $ btc的價格可能是$ 70K左右。 36％的校正，從$ 110K ATH，牛市正常v n frorm。然後，我們需要stonks，$ spx和$ ndx才能進入免費秋季。然後，我們需要tradfi muppet才能下來。然後，我們得到了餵養，PBOC，ECB和BOJ，所有人都放鬆了...

Previously, Hayes warned of Bitcoin sliding to $75,000. The crypto trader noted that there was a large cluster of options contracts in the $70,000-$75,000 range. This could lead to increased volatility if BTC price enters this zone.

以前，海斯警告比特幣滑動至75,000美元。加密貨幣交易員指出，有一大批期權合約在$ 70,000- $ 75,000的範圍內。如果BTC價格進入該區域，這可能會導致波動性的增加。

If Bitcoin fails to hold $78,000, then $75,000 will become a critical support level. A further breakdown could trigger liquidations and send BTC toward $70,000.

如果比特幣無法持有78,000美元，那麼75,000美元將成為關鍵的支持水平。進一步的故障可能會觸發清算，並將BTC送到70,000美元。

Market data shows that traders are entering substantial short positions, and futures volume is increasing. This signals a cautious and selective sentiment among derivatives traders.

市場數據表明，交易者正在進入大量的短職位，而期貨量正在增加。這標誌著衍生品交易者中謹慎而有選擇性的情緒。

Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Bitcoin

宏觀經濟因素影響比特幣

Hayes is also keeping an eye on macroeconomic risks. He noted that while U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are nearing record highs, Bitcoin’s decline indicates underlying liquidity issues.

海耶斯還關注宏觀經濟風險。他指出，儘管美國股票指數（S＆P 500（SPX）和NASDAQ 100（NDX））接近創紀錄的高點，但比特幣的下降表明了潛在的流動性問題。

If a major financial institution collapses, central banks—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and Bank of Japan (BOJ)—may quickly intervene with liquidity injections.

如果主要金融機構崩潰了，中央銀行（包括美聯儲（美聯儲），歐洲中央銀行（ECB），中國人民銀行（PBOC）和日本銀行（BOJ）（BOJ）（BOJ）可能會迅速介入流動性注射。

Once these central banks pivot towards easing their policies, BTC will stage a strong comeback. However, traders trying to “buy the dip” too soon may face extended consolidation before the next uptrend.

一旦這些中央銀行轉向放大政策，BTC將進行強烈的捲土重來。但是，交易者試圖過早地“購買蘸醬”可能會在下一次上升趨勢之前面臨擴展的合併。

Trump’s Potential Impact on Bitcoin’s Future

特朗普對比特幣未來的潛在影響

In a recent blog post, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, discussed the potential impact of Donald Trump’s policies on Bitcoin (BTC).

Crypto Exchange Bitmex的前首席執行官Arthur Hayes在最近的博客文章中討論了唐納德·特朗普對比特幣（BTC）的潛在影響。

According to Hayes, the U.S. economy is currently being sustained by government spending. If Trump slashes expenditures and cuts federal jobs, it could precipitate a recession.

根據海斯的說法，美國經濟目前正在政府支出中維持。如果特朗普削減了支出並削減了聯邦工作，那可能會造成衰退。

In response, the Federal Reserve might be forced to lower interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing (QE), which would serve to weaken the U.S. dollar. This, in turn, could make Bitcoin a more appealing store of value.

作為回應，美聯儲可能被迫降低利率並重新引入定量寬鬆（QE），這將削弱美元。反過來，這可能使比特幣成為更具吸引力的價值存儲。

If economic instability accelerates, Hayes projects BTC reaching $250,000 by year-end. In a prolonged monetary expansion scenario, he envisions Bitcoin hitting $1 million before the end of Trump’s presidency.

如果經濟不穩定加速，海耶斯項目BTC逐年達到25萬美元。在延長的貨幣擴張情況下，他設想比特幣在特朗普總統任期結束之前達到100萬美元。