随着加密货币接近 10 万美元大关，比特币鲸鱼开始吸筹

比特币的持续价格飙升，已接近 10 万美元大关，与 2020 年的牛市有着惊人的相似之处

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) ongoing price surge, which has seen the cryptocurrency approach the $100,000 price point, is showing striking similarities to the bull market of 2020, according to Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）的持续价格飙升已接近 10 万美元的价格点，与 2020 年的牛市表现出惊人的相似之处。

In a recent Twitter thread, Ju explained that Bitcoin’s current rally appears to be driven by a pattern of long-term accumulation by large investors, or “whales,” similar to the behavior observed during the last major market surge.

Ju 在最近的 Twitter 帖子中解释说，比特币当前的上涨似乎是由大型投资者或“鲸鱼”的长期积累模式推动的，类似于上次主要市场飙升期间观察到的行为。

Whale Accumulation and Market Surge

鲸鱼积累和市场激增

Ju pointed to the growing evidence of Bitcoin accumulation by whales over the past several months. He noted that while there were doubts surrounding on-chain data indicating this accumulation, those concerns have now been largely addressed. According to Ju, the long-term buildup of Bitcoin by major holders is now clearer, suggesting that these whales are positioning themselves for a significant price move.

Ju指出，越来越多的证据表明鲸鱼在过去几个月里积累了比特币。他指出，虽然对表明这种积累的链上数据存在疑问，但这些担忧现在已基本得到解决。 Ju表示，主要持有者对比特币的长期积累现在更加清晰，这表明这些鲸鱼正在为价格的大幅波动做好准备。

“The accumulation data seemed exaggerated at first,” Ju admitted. “But now, it’s clear that the reasons behind it are becoming apparent.”

“起初，积累数据似乎有些夸大，”鞠承认。 “但现在，很明显，其背后的原因正在变得明显。”

This accumulation phase by whales has coincided with Bitcoin’s price climbing steadily toward the $100,000 mark, a milestone that many market observers are watching closely. Bitcoin has gained over 160% in value since the start of the year, and it is on track to reach new all-time highs, mirroring the rapid price increase seen in 2020.

鲸鱼的积累阶段恰逢比特币价格稳步攀升至 10 万美元大关，这是许多市场观察人士密切关注的里程碑。自今年年初以来，比特币的价值已上涨超过 160%，并且有望创下历史新高，这与 2020 年价格的快速上涨相呼应。

A Historical Pattern: Bitcoin’s 2020 Surge

历史规律：比特币 2020 年的飙升

Ju made the connection between Bitcoin’s current rally and the 2020 bull market, where the cryptocurrency’s value surged from around $10,000 to $67,000. He believes the patterns in whale activity and price movement are remarkably similar, suggesting that Bitcoin could be on a similar trajectory this time around.

Ju 将比特币当前的上涨与 2020 年牛市联系起来，当时加密货币的价值从 10,000 美元左右飙升至 67,000 美元。他认为鲸鱼活动和价格变动的模式非常相似，这表明比特币这次可能会走类似的轨迹。

The 2020 bull run was driven by several factors, including increased institutional interest and macroeconomic conditions like low-interest rates. However, the role of large Bitcoin holders (whales) quietly accumulating the asset for months before the price exploded cannot be overlooked. According to Ju, the same whale behavior is repeating today, setting the stage for another major rally.

2020 年的牛市是由多种因素推动的，包括机构兴趣增加和低利率等宏观经济状况。然而，大型比特币持有者（鲸鱼）在价格爆炸之前几个月悄悄积累资产的作用不容忽视。 Ju表示，同样的鲸鱼行为今天正在重复，为另一次重大反弹奠定了基础。

Bitcoin Halving and Mining Profitability

比特币减半和挖矿盈利能力

One of the key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price surge, as highlighted by Ju, is the recent Bitcoin halving event that occurred in April 2024. This halving cut Bitcoin mining rewards in half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, significantly increasing the costs of mining.

Ju强调，导致比特币价格飙升的关键因素之一是最近发生在2024年4月的比特币减半事件。这次减半使比特币挖矿奖励减少了一半，从6.25 BTC到3.125 BTC，显着增加了挖矿成本。

Ju noted that to maintain mining profitability, Bitcoin’s price must rise. As miners are forced to sell fewer coins due to reduced rewards, this tightening of supply could further contribute to the price surge. Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics play a crucial role in determining its price, and with fewer coins entering circulation, the price could continue to rise in the coming months.

Ju指出，为了维持挖矿盈利，比特币的价格必须上涨。由于奖励减少，矿工被迫出售更少的代币，供应紧缩可能会进一步导致价格飙升。比特币的供需动态在决定其价格方面发挥着至关重要的作用，随着进入流通的比特币数量减少，价格可能在未来几个月继续上涨。

Short Squeeze Fuels the Bull Market

逼空助推牛市

Ju also pointed out another important aspect of the current market conditions: the increasing number of traders betting against Bitcoin’s price. Many are shorting the cryptocurrency, hoping for a price drop, but this could be fueling the rally instead.

Ju还指出了当前市场状况的另一个重要方面：做空比特币价格的交易者数量不断增加。许多人做空加密货币，希望价格下跌，但这可能反而会推动涨势。

According to Ju, this short interest could create a “short squeeze,” where traders who have bet against the price are forced to buy back their positions, further driving the price upwards. This dynamic has the potential to accelerate the rally, leading to significant price movements, though Ju cautioned that the timing of such an explosion remains uncertain.

Ju表示，这种空头兴趣可能会造成“空头挤压”，即做空价格的交易者被迫回购头寸，进一步推动价格上涨。这种动态有可能加速涨势，导致价格大幅波动，但朱警告称，这种爆发的时机仍不确定。

Looking Ahead: Bitcoin’s Future

展望未来：比特币的未来

While Ju has offered bullish predictions for Bitcoin’s price, he acknowledged that his past forecasts haven’t always been accurate. He had previously suggested a short-term correction in the middle of the ongoing bull market, a prediction that didn’t come to fruition. Nonetheless, Ju emphasized that he remains committed to speaking out if the market shows signs of a shift, whether toward a bear market or otherwise.

尽管朱对比特币的价格做出了乐观的预测，但他承认他过去的预测并不总是准确的。他此前曾建议在当前牛市中进行短期调整，但这一预测并未实现。尽管如此，鞠强调，如果市场出现转变迹象，无论是走向熊市还是其他方向，他仍然致力于发声。

As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark, many investors and market watchers are eager to see whether this rally will continue. The accumulation phase by whales, the halving’s impact on mining costs, and the possibility of a short squeeze are all factors that could propel Bitcoin’s price even higher.

随着比特币逼近10万美元大关，许多投资者和市场观察人士都急切地想知道这种涨势是否会持续。鲸鱼的积累阶段、减半对挖矿成本的影响以及轧空的可能性都是可能推动比特币价格进一步上涨的因素。