隨著加密貨幣接近 10 萬美元大關，比特幣鯨魚開始吸籌

比特幣的持續價格飆升，已接近 10 萬美元大關，與 2020 年的牛市有著驚人的相似之處

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) ongoing price surge, which has seen the cryptocurrency approach the $100,000 price point, is showing striking similarities to the bull market of 2020, according to Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 表示，比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）的持續價格飆升已接近 10 萬美元的價格點，與 2020 年的多頭市場表現出驚人的相似之處。

In a recent Twitter thread, Ju explained that Bitcoin’s current rally appears to be driven by a pattern of long-term accumulation by large investors, or “whales,” similar to the behavior observed during the last major market surge.

Ju 在最近的 Twitter 貼文中解釋說，比特幣當前的上漲似乎是由大型投資者或「鯨魚」的長期累積模式推動的，類似於上次主要市場飆升期間觀察到的行為。

Whale Accumulation and Market Surge

鯨魚積累和市場激增

Ju pointed to the growing evidence of Bitcoin accumulation by whales over the past several months. He noted that while there were doubts surrounding on-chain data indicating this accumulation, those concerns have now been largely addressed. According to Ju, the long-term buildup of Bitcoin by major holders is now clearer, suggesting that these whales are positioning themselves for a significant price move.

Ju指出，越來越多的證據顯示鯨魚在過去幾個月累積了比特幣。他指出，雖然對顯示這種累積的鏈上數據存在疑問，但這些擔憂現在已基本解決。 Ju表示，主要持有者對比特幣的長期累積現在更加清晰，這表明這些鯨魚正在為價格的大幅波動做好準備。

“The accumulation data seemed exaggerated at first,” Ju admitted. “But now, it’s clear that the reasons behind it are becoming apparent.”

「起初，累積數據似乎有些誇大，」鞠承認。 “但現在，很明顯，背後的原因正在變得明顯。”

This accumulation phase by whales has coincided with Bitcoin’s price climbing steadily toward the $100,000 mark, a milestone that many market observers are watching closely. Bitcoin has gained over 160% in value since the start of the year, and it is on track to reach new all-time highs, mirroring the rapid price increase seen in 2020.

鯨魚的累積階段恰逢比特幣價格穩步攀升至 10 萬美元大關，這是許多市場觀察家密切關注的里程碑。自今年年初以來，比特幣的價值已上漲超過 160%，並且有望創下歷史新高，這與 2020 年價格的快速上漲相呼應。

A Historical Pattern: Bitcoin’s 2020 Surge

歷史法則：比特幣 2020 年的飆升

Ju made the connection between Bitcoin’s current rally and the 2020 bull market, where the cryptocurrency’s value surged from around $10,000 to $67,000. He believes the patterns in whale activity and price movement are remarkably similar, suggesting that Bitcoin could be on a similar trajectory this time around.

Ju 將比特幣當前的上漲與 2020 年牛市聯繫起來，當時加密貨幣的價值從 10,000 美元左右飆升至 67,000 美元。他認為鯨魚活動和價格變動的模式非常相似，這顯示比特幣這次可能會走類似的軌跡。

The 2020 bull run was driven by several factors, including increased institutional interest and macroeconomic conditions like low-interest rates. However, the role of large Bitcoin holders (whales) quietly accumulating the asset for months before the price exploded cannot be overlooked. According to Ju, the same whale behavior is repeating today, setting the stage for another major rally.

2020 年的多頭市場是由多種因素推動的，包括機構興趣增加和低利率等宏觀經濟狀況。然而，大型比特幣持有者（鯨魚）在價格爆炸前幾個月悄悄累積資產的作用不容忽視。 Ju表示，同樣的鯨魚行為今天正在重複，為另一次重大反彈奠定了基礎。

Bitcoin Halving and Mining Profitability

比特幣減半及挖礦獲利能力

One of the key factors contributing to Bitcoin’s price surge, as highlighted by Ju, is the recent Bitcoin halving event that occurred in April 2024. This halving cut Bitcoin mining rewards in half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, significantly increasing the costs of mining.

Ju強調，導致比特幣價格飆升的關鍵因素之一是最近發生在2024年4月的比特幣減半事件。著增加了挖礦成本。

Ju noted that to maintain mining profitability, Bitcoin’s price must rise. As miners are forced to sell fewer coins due to reduced rewards, this tightening of supply could further contribute to the price surge. Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics play a crucial role in determining its price, and with fewer coins entering circulation, the price could continue to rise in the coming months.

Ju指出，為了維持挖礦獲利，比特幣的價格必須上漲。由於獎勵減少，礦工被迫出售較少的代幣，供應緊縮可能會進一步導致價格飆升。比特幣的供需動態在決定其價格方面發揮著至關重要的作用，隨著進入流通的比特幣數量減少，價格可能在未來幾個月繼續上漲。

Short Squeeze Fuels the Bull Market

逼空助推牛市

Ju also pointed out another important aspect of the current market conditions: the increasing number of traders betting against Bitcoin’s price. Many are shorting the cryptocurrency, hoping for a price drop, but this could be fueling the rally instead.

Ju也指出了當前市場狀況的另一個重要面向：做空比特幣價格的交易者數量不斷增加。許多人做空加密貨幣，希望價格下跌，但這可能反而會推動漲勢。

According to Ju, this short interest could create a “short squeeze,” where traders who have bet against the price are forced to buy back their positions, further driving the price upwards. This dynamic has the potential to accelerate the rally, leading to significant price movements, though Ju cautioned that the timing of such an explosion remains uncertain.

Ju表示，這種空頭興趣可能會造成“空頭擠壓”，即做空價格的交易者被迫回購頭寸，進一步推動價格上漲。這種動態有可能加速漲勢，導致價格大幅波動，但朱警告稱，這種爆發的時機仍不確定。

Looking Ahead: Bitcoin’s Future

展望未來：比特幣的未來

While Ju has offered bullish predictions for Bitcoin’s price, he acknowledged that his past forecasts haven’t always been accurate. He had previously suggested a short-term correction in the middle of the ongoing bull market, a prediction that didn’t come to fruition. Nonetheless, Ju emphasized that he remains committed to speaking out if the market shows signs of a shift, whether toward a bear market or otherwise.

儘管朱對比特幣的價格做出了樂觀的預測，但他承認他過去的預測並不總是準確的。他此前曾建議在當前牛市中進行短期調整，但這項預測並未實現。儘管如此，鞠強調，如果市場出現轉變跡象，無論是走向熊市還是其他方向，他仍然致力於發聲。

As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark, many investors and market watchers are eager to see whether this rally will continue. The accumulation phase by whales, the halving’s impact on mining costs, and the possibility of a short squeeze are all factors that could propel Bitcoin’s price even higher.

隨著比特幣逼近10萬美元大關，許多投資人和市場觀察家都急切地想知道這種漲勢是否會持續。鯨魚的累積階段、減半對挖礦成本的影響、以及軋空的可能性都是可能推動比特幣價格進一步上漲的因素。