比特币在经济和技术不确定性的背景下开始一周。

尽管82,000美元的象征性门槛难以持有，但投资者仍在密切关注市场信号。

Bitcoin begins the week against a backdrop of economic and technical uncertainties. While the symbolic threshold of $82,000 struggles to hold, investors are closely watching market signals. Amid geopolitical tensions, worrying technical indicators, and hopes for a bullish reversal, here are 5 elements to closely monitor this week.

比特币在经济和技术不确定性的背景下开始一周。虽然符合82,000美元的象征性门槛持有持有的努力，但投资者仍在密切关注市场信号。在地缘政治紧张局势，令人担忧的技术指标以及对看涨逆转的希望中，这里有5个要素可以在本周密切监视。

Bitcoin: 5 things to know at the beginning of April

比特币：4月初要知道的5件事

In addition to Bitcoin’s dominance, which falls to 58.8%, the first cryptocurrency shows signs of technical fragility this week… Investors are holding their breath. In a context filled with uncertainties, several key signals could influence its trajectory. Here’s what to understand.

除了比特币的统治地位下降到58.8％外，第一个加密货币本周还显示出技术脆弱性的迹象……投资者正在屏住呼吸。在充满不确定性的情况下，几个关键信号可能会影响其轨迹。这是要理解的。

Bitcoin faces a bearish signal: the “bearish engulfing” is imposing

比特币面对看跌信号：“看跌式吞噬”正在强加

The weekly Bitcoin chart recently displayed a “bearish engulfing” candle, a feared technical signal indicating a potential downward reversal. This figure formed as BTC finished the week around $81,202, its lowest level in two weeks. Traders remain cautious, citing compression between the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages, which typically precede explosive movements.

每周的比特币图表最近显示了“看跌”蜡烛，这是一个令人担忧的技术信号，表明潜在的下降逆转。当BTC完成一周的81,202美元，这一数字在两周内完成了最低水平。贸易商保持谨慎，理由是在50天到50周的指数移动平均值之间进行压缩，这通常在爆炸性运动之前。

Some see this decline of Bitcoin as a mere breath in a larger bullish market, while others read it as a loss of momentum. The market is on edge, and the evolution of this technical figure could set the tone for April.

有些人将比特币的这种下降视为在更大的看涨市场中仅呼吸的，而另一些人则将其视为失去动力。市场处于边缘状态，这一技术数字的演变可能为四月定下基调。

April 2, a new turning point in the U.S. trade war?

4月2日，美国贸易战的新转折点？

On Tuesday, April 2, the United States could strike hard with a new wave of tariffs, dubbed by Donald Trump as “Liberation Day”. Up to 1.5 trillion dollars in imports could be affected, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This trade hardening could create a shockwave on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

4月2日，星期二，美国可能会以新的关税浪潮罢工，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）称为“解放日”。根据Kobeissi的信，可能会影响多达1.5万亿美元的进口。这种贸易硬化可能会对包括比特币在内的风险资产产生冲击波。

Additionally, a busy week on the macroeconomic front awaits: employment data, speeches from Jerome Powell, and key publications from the FED could significantly influence market perceptions. The index of economic uncertainty is reaching new heights, making reactions unpredictable. Traders remain on alert: this week could change everything.

此外，在宏观经济方面的繁忙一周正在等待：就业数据，杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的演讲以及美联储的主要出版物可能会极大地影响市场的看法。经济不确定性的指数正达到新的高度，使反应无法预测。交易者保持警惕：本周可以改变一切。

A disappointing first quarter for Bitcoin

比特币令人失望的第一季度

With a decline of 12.7% for the quarter, Bitcoin records its worst first quarter since 2018. The drop since the January peak exceeds 30%, while gold continues to set records. However, according to Glassnode data, this correction remains modest compared to previous cycles, some having experienced drawdowns over 60%.

该季度的下降12.7％，比特币记录了自2018年以来最糟糕的第一季度。一月份峰人以来的下降超过30％，而黄金则继续创造记录。但是，根据玻璃节数据，与以前的周期相比，这种校正仍然适度，有些校正经历了超过60％的缩水。

Despite this relative underperformance, some analysts, like Daan Crypto Trades, believe the quarter “has not been that terrible.” The lack of volatility could actually favor a gradual restart, as soon as the macro context improves. But for now, caution prevails.

尽管相对表现不佳，但一些分析师（例如Daan Crypto交易）认为该季度“并不那么可怕”。一旦宏观环境改善，缺乏波动率实际上可能有利于逐渐重新启动。但是就目前而言，谨慎胜任。

The MVRV ratio calls for caution

MVRV比率需要谨慎

The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, is currently trending towards its historical average. This decline reflects the exit from an overheating zone, which began after a “death cross” observed in early March. If this signal has often preceded price drops, it does not yet indicate a definitive bottom.

MVRV比（市场价值与已实现价值）用于评估比特币是否被高估或被低估，目前正朝着其历史平均水平趋势。这种下降反映了从3月初观察到的“死亡十字架”之后的过热区域的退出。如果此信号通常在价格下跌之前，则尚未表示确定的底部。

According to analyst Yonsei Dent, the market is mimicking past behaviors but remains exposed to a new correction. In the absence of a clear signal of recovery, Bitcoin investors must remain cautious. However, a sustainable recovery could begin if the ratio rebounds after hitting its historical support.

根据分析师Yonsei Dent的说法，市场正在模仿过去的行为，但仍会受到新的更正。在没有清晰的恢复信号的情况下，比特币投资者必须保持谨慎。但是，如果该比率得到历史支持后的比率反弹，则可以开始可持续的复苏。

American investors remain hopeful: the return of the Coinbase Premium

美国投资者仍然充满希望：Coinbase Premium的回报

The “Coinbase Premium,” an indicator of the confidence of American investors, is once again approaching neutral territory. After a period marked by panic selling, this stabilization indicates renewed interest in Bitcoin in the United States. CryptoQuant emphasizes that this resilience against downward pressure could signal a trend reversal.

“ Coinbase Premium”是美国投资者信心的指标，再次接近中立领土。经过恐慌销售标志的一段时间，这种稳定表明在美国对比特币的新兴趣。加密量强调，这种对向下压力的弹性可能表明趋势逆转。

A positive premium has historically accompanied sustainable bull market phases. If this dynamic is confirmed, it could mean that institutional buyers are back, ready to accumulate BTC at price levels they find attractive.

从历史上看，积极的溢价伴随着可持续的牛市阶段。如果确认了这种动态，则可能意味着机构买家又回来了，准备以他们觉得很有吸引力的价格水平积累BTC。

A pullback to $72,000? What direction for Bitcoin this week

回调至72,000美元？本周比特币的方向

This week, Bitcoin’s trajectory could oscillate between tension and opportunity. If the threshold of $80,000 were to give way sustainably, a pullback to supports at $76,000 or even $72,000 could not be ruled out, particularly due to macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility induced by the new U.S. tariff measures.

本周，比特币的轨迹可以在紧张和机会之间振荡。如果$ 80,000的门槛是可持续的，则不能排除支持76,000美元甚至72,000美元的支持，尤其是由于宏观经济的不确定性和新美国关税措施引起的宏观经济不确定性和波动性。

However, a stabilization of BTC above key moving averages could rekindle bullish momentum. Savvy investors should adopt a cautious approach these days: monitor volumes, avoid impulsive buying, and consider gradual entries into well-identified pullback zones. Patience will be key.

但是，在关键的移动平均值上方的BTC稳定可以重现看涨的动力。如今，精明的投资者应采取谨慎的方法：监视量，避免冲动购买，并考虑逐渐进入良好的回调区。耐心将是关键。

This week is therefore poised to be decisive for Bitcoin, and the $80,000 threshold remains the psychological level to watch. Amid trade tensions, ambiguous technical signals, and macroeconomic expectations, investors are navigating a fog of uncertainties. And to make matters worse in this already turbulent April, Bitcoin miners will face a major challenge, that could seriously affect their profitability.

因此，本周有望决定比特币，而80,000美元的门槛仍然是要注意的心理水平。在贸易紧张局势，模棱两可的技术信号和宏观经济的期望之中，投资者正在浏览不确定性的雾气。在这个已经动荡的四月中，比特币矿工将面临一个重大挑战，这可能会严重影响其盈利能力。

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