比特幣在經濟和技術不確定性的背景下開始一周。

儘管82,000美元的象徵性門檻難以持有，但投資者仍在密切關注市場信號。

Bitcoin begins the week against a backdrop of economic and technical uncertainties. While the symbolic threshold of $82,000 struggles to hold, investors are closely watching market signals. Amid geopolitical tensions, worrying technical indicators, and hopes for a bullish reversal, here are 5 elements to closely monitor this week.

比特幣在經濟和技術不確定性的背景下開始一周。雖然符合82,000美元的象徵性門檻持有持有的努力，但投資者仍在密切關注市場信號。在地緣政治緊張局勢，令人擔憂的技術指標以及對看漲逆轉的希望中，這裡有5個要素可以在本周密切監視。

Bitcoin: 5 things to know at the beginning of April

比特幣：4月初要知道的5件事

In addition to Bitcoin’s dominance, which falls to 58.8%, the first cryptocurrency shows signs of technical fragility this week… Investors are holding their breath. In a context filled with uncertainties, several key signals could influence its trajectory. Here’s what to understand.

除了比特幣的統治地位下降到58.8％外，第一個加密貨幣本週還顯示出技術脆弱性的跡象……投資者正在屏住呼吸。在充滿不確定性的情況下，幾個關鍵信號可能會影響其軌跡。這是要理解的。

Bitcoin faces a bearish signal: the “bearish engulfing” is imposing

比特幣面對看跌信號：“看跌式吞噬”正在強加

The weekly Bitcoin chart recently displayed a “bearish engulfing” candle, a feared technical signal indicating a potential downward reversal. This figure formed as BTC finished the week around $81,202, its lowest level in two weeks. Traders remain cautious, citing compression between the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages, which typically precede explosive movements.

每週的比特幣圖表最近顯示了“看跌”蠟燭，這是一個令人擔憂的技術信號，表明潛在的下降逆轉。當BTC完成一周的81,202美元，這一數字在兩週內完成了最低水平。貿易商保持謹慎，理由是在50天到50週的指數移動平均值之間進行壓縮，這通常在爆炸性運動之前。

Some see this decline of Bitcoin as a mere breath in a larger bullish market, while others read it as a loss of momentum. The market is on edge, and the evolution of this technical figure could set the tone for April.

有些人將比特幣的這種下降視為在更大的看漲市場中僅呼吸的，而另一些人則將其視為失去動力。市場處於邊緣狀態，這一技術數字的演變可能為四月定下基調。

April 2, a new turning point in the U.S. trade war?

4月2日，美國貿易戰的新轉折點？

On Tuesday, April 2, the United States could strike hard with a new wave of tariffs, dubbed by Donald Trump as “Liberation Day”. Up to 1.5 trillion dollars in imports could be affected, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This trade hardening could create a shockwave on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

4月2日，星期二，美國可能會以新的關稅浪潮罷工，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）稱為“解放日”。根據Kobeissi的信，可能會影響多達1.5萬億美元的進口。這種貿易硬化可能會對包括比特幣在內的風險資產產生衝擊波。

Additionally, a busy week on the macroeconomic front awaits: employment data, speeches from Jerome Powell, and key publications from the FED could significantly influence market perceptions. The index of economic uncertainty is reaching new heights, making reactions unpredictable. Traders remain on alert: this week could change everything.

此外，在宏觀經濟方面的繁忙一周正在等待：就業數據，杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的演講以及美聯儲的主要出版物可能會極大地影響市場的看法。經濟不確定性的指數正達到新的高度，使反應無法預測。交易者保持警惕：本周可以改變一切。

A disappointing first quarter for Bitcoin

比特幣令人失望的第一季度

With a decline of 12.7% for the quarter, Bitcoin records its worst first quarter since 2018. The drop since the January peak exceeds 30%, while gold continues to set records. However, according to Glassnode data, this correction remains modest compared to previous cycles, some having experienced drawdowns over 60%.

該季度的下降12.7％，比特幣記錄了自2018年以來最糟糕的第一季度。一月份峰人以來的下降超過30％，而黃金則繼續創造記錄。但是，根據玻璃節數據，與以前的周期相比，這種校正仍然適度，有些校正經歷了超過60％的縮水。

Despite this relative underperformance, some analysts, like Daan Crypto Trades, believe the quarter “has not been that terrible.” The lack of volatility could actually favor a gradual restart, as soon as the macro context improves. But for now, caution prevails.

儘管相對錶現不佳，但一些分析師（例如Daan Crypto交易）認為該季度“並不那麼可怕”。一旦宏觀環境改善，缺乏波動率實際上可能有利於逐漸重新啟動。但是就目前而言，謹慎勝任。

The MVRV ratio calls for caution

MVRV比率需要謹慎

The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, is currently trending towards its historical average. This decline reflects the exit from an overheating zone, which began after a “death cross” observed in early March. If this signal has often preceded price drops, it does not yet indicate a definitive bottom.

MVRV比（市場價值與已實現價值）用於評估比特幣是否被高估或被低估，目前正朝著其歷史平均水平趨勢。這種下降反映了從3月初觀察到的“死亡十字架”之後的過熱區域的退出。如果此信號通常在價格下跌之前，則尚未表示確定的底部。

According to analyst Yonsei Dent, the market is mimicking past behaviors but remains exposed to a new correction. In the absence of a clear signal of recovery, Bitcoin investors must remain cautious. However, a sustainable recovery could begin if the ratio rebounds after hitting its historical support.

根據分析師Yonsei Dent的說法，市場正在模仿過去的行為，但仍會受到新的更正。在沒有清晰的恢復信號的情況下，比特幣投資者必須保持謹慎。但是，如果該比率得到歷史支持後的比率反彈，則可以開始可持續的複蘇。

American investors remain hopeful: the return of the Coinbase Premium

美國投資者仍然充滿希望：Coinbase Premium的回報

The “Coinbase Premium,” an indicator of the confidence of American investors, is once again approaching neutral territory. After a period marked by panic selling, this stabilization indicates renewed interest in Bitcoin in the United States. CryptoQuant emphasizes that this resilience against downward pressure could signal a trend reversal.

“ Coinbase Premium”是美國投資者信心的指標，再次接近中立領土。經過恐慌銷售標誌的一段時間，這種穩定表明在美國對比特幣的新興趣。加密量強調，這種對向下壓力的彈性可能表明趨勢逆轉。

A positive premium has historically accompanied sustainable bull market phases. If this dynamic is confirmed, it could mean that institutional buyers are back, ready to accumulate BTC at price levels they find attractive.

從歷史上看，積極的溢價伴隨著可持續的牛市階段。如果確認了這種動態，則可能意味著機構買家又回來了，準備以他們覺得很有吸引力的價格水平積累BTC。

A pullback to $72,000? What direction for Bitcoin this week

回調至72,000美元？本週比特幣的方向

This week, Bitcoin’s trajectory could oscillate between tension and opportunity. If the threshold of $80,000 were to give way sustainably, a pullback to supports at $76,000 or even $72,000 could not be ruled out, particularly due to macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility induced by the new U.S. tariff measures.

本週，比特幣的軌跡可以在緊張和機會之間振盪。如果$ 80,000的門檻是可持續的，則不能排除支持76,000美元甚至72,000美元的支持，尤其是由於宏觀經濟的不確定性和新美國關稅措施引起的宏觀經濟不確定性和波動性。

However, a stabilization of BTC above key moving averages could rekindle bullish momentum. Savvy investors should adopt a cautious approach these days: monitor volumes, avoid impulsive buying, and consider gradual entries into well-identified pullback zones. Patience will be key.

但是，在關鍵的移動平均值上方的BTC穩定可以重現看漲的動力。如今，精明的投資者應採取謹慎的方法：監視量，避免衝動購買，並考慮逐漸進入良好的回調區。耐心將是關鍵。

This week is therefore poised to be decisive for Bitcoin, and the $80,000 threshold remains the psychological level to watch. Amid trade tensions, ambiguous technical signals, and macroeconomic expectations, investors are navigating a fog of uncertainties. And to make matters worse in this already turbulent April, Bitcoin miners will face a major challenge, that could seriously affect their profitability.

因此，本周有望決定比特幣，而80,000美元的門檻仍然是要注意的心理水平。在貿易緊張局勢，模棱兩可的技術信號和宏觀經濟的期望之中，投資者正在瀏覽不確定性的霧氣。在這個已經動蕩的四月中，比特幣礦工將面臨一個重大挑戰，這可能會嚴重影響其盈利能力。

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