分析师预测比特币即将上涨至 15 万美元

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Bullish Surge?

比特币是否已做好牛市飙升的准备？

Bitcoin has been making headlines recently, trading around a lofty $71,000. Market pundits are abuzz with speculation that the cryptocurrency could scale even higher, potentially reaching $85,000 or even $92,000 by month's end.

比特币最近一直成为头条新闻，交易价格高达 71,000 美元左右。市场专家纷纷猜测这种加密货币可能会进一步上涨，到月底可能达到 85,000 美元甚至 92,000 美元。

The S2F Model: A Guiding Light or a Mirage?

S2F模型：指路明灯还是海市蜃楼？

One prominent theory underpinning the bullish sentiment is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, championed by PlanB. This model suggests that Bitcoin's scarcity, relative to its flow of new supply, will drive exponential growth. However, it's important to note that these are merely projections, subject to the whims of market volatility.

支撑看涨情绪的一个重要理论是 PlanB 倡导的存量与流量 (S2F) 模型。该模型表明，比特币的稀缺性（相对于其新供应量而言）将推动指数级增长。然而，值得注意的是，这些仅仅是预测，会受到市场波动的影响。

PlanB acknowledges that the realized price (cost basis) is rising, albeit at a modest pace of 5-10% monthly. He draws parallels between the current market climate and historical rallies witnessed in October 2022, early 2017, and mid-2012.

PlanB 承认，实际价格（成本基础）正在上涨，尽管涨幅不大，每月 5-10%。他将当前的市场环境与 2022 年 10 月、2017 年初和 2012 年中期的历史反弹进行了比较。

Deficiencies in the S2F Model

S2F模型的缺陷

Critics of the S2F model point out its limitations, arguing that it can only provide general directional guidance but not precise price targets. PlanB himself concedes that a wide margin of error may impact the actual price trajectory.

S2F模型的批评者指出了它的局限性，认为它只能提供一般的方向指导，而不能提供精确的价格目标。 PlanB 本人也承认，较大的误差范围可能会影响实际的价格轨迹。

Bullish Voices Echo Support

看涨声音回声支持

Despite these caveats, other market observers are also bullish on Bitcoin. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, believes that the next peak could climb as high as $92,000, contingent on a period of price correction. He emphasizes that retail investors are just starting to dip their toes into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with a surge expected around the Bitcoin Halving event.

尽管有这些警告，其他市场观察人士也看好比特币。 Ledn 首席投资官约翰·格洛弗 (John Glover) 认为，下一个峰值可能会攀升至 92,000 美元，具体取决于一段时间的价格调整。他强调，散户投资者刚刚开始通过交易所交易基金（ETF）涉足比特币，预计比特币减半事件期间散户投资者的数量将激增。

Dissenting Opinions: The Fred Krueger Effect

不同意见：弗雷德·克鲁格效应

Not everyone is convinced by the PlanB-inspired model. Fred Krueger, a prominent Bitcoin investor, has denounced it as flawed and called for its removal from the market. Notably, Krueger does not outright dismiss the possibility of Bitcoin eclipsing $85,000.

并非所有人都相信 PlanB 启发的模型。著名比特币投资者 Fred Krueger 谴责其存在缺陷，并呼吁将其从市场上移除。值得注意的是，克鲁格并没有完全否认比特币突破 85,000 美元的可能性。

Analysts Raise the Bar: $150,000 on the Horizon

分析师提高门槛：150,000 美元即将到来

Bullish analysts have been revising their forecasts upwards, with some predicting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. They have subsequently raised that target to $120,000 and even $150,000. This suggests that the cryptocurrency has the potential to embark on a sustained upward trajectory. With $150,000 on the radar, the $100,000 milestone seems increasingly attainable.

看涨的分析师一直在上调他们的预测，一些人预测比特币到 2024 年底可能会达到 10 万美元。他们随后将该目标提高到 12 万美元，甚至 15 万美元。这表明加密货币有潜力走上持续上升的轨道。随着 150,000 美元的关注，100,000 美元的里程碑似乎越来越容易实现。

A Path to $95,000 and Beyond

达到 95,000 美元及以上的途径

Assuming Bitcoin inches closer to $95,000 around the Bitcoin Halving, it could set the stage for a strong finish to the year. However, it's crucial to approach any investment in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies with a clear understanding of the risks involved.

假设比特币减半前后比特币价格接近 95,000 美元，这可能为今年的强劲收官奠定基础。然而，在对比特币或其他加密货币进行任何投资时，清楚地了解所涉及的风险至关重要。