分析師預測比特幣即將上漲至 15 萬美元

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Bullish Surge?

比特幣是否已做好牛市飆升的準備？

Bitcoin has been making headlines recently, trading around a lofty $71,000. Market pundits are abuzz with speculation that the cryptocurrency could scale even higher, potentially reaching $85,000 or even $92,000 by month's end.

比特幣最近一直成為頭條新聞，交易價格高達 71,000 美元左右。市場專家紛紛猜測這種加密貨幣可能會進一步上漲，到月底可能達到 85,000 美元甚至 92,000 美元。

The S2F Model: A Guiding Light or a Mirage?

S2F模型：指路明燈還是海市蜃樓？

One prominent theory underpinning the bullish sentiment is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, championed by PlanB. This model suggests that Bitcoin's scarcity, relative to its flow of new supply, will drive exponential growth. However, it's important to note that these are merely projections, subject to the whims of market volatility.

支撐看漲情緒的一個重要理論是 PlanB 所倡導的存量與流量 (S2F) 模式。該模型表明，比特幣的稀缺性（相對於其新供應量而言）將推動指數級成長。然而，值得注意的是，這些只是預測，會受到市場波動的影響。

PlanB acknowledges that the realized price (cost basis) is rising, albeit at a modest pace of 5-10% monthly. He draws parallels between the current market climate and historical rallies witnessed in October 2022, early 2017, and mid-2012.

PlanB 承認，實際價格（成本基礎）正在上漲，儘管漲幅不大，每月 5-10%。他將當前的市場環境與 2022 年 10 月、2017 年初和 2012 年中期的歷史反彈進行了比較。

Deficiencies in the S2F Model

S2F模型的缺陷

Critics of the S2F model point out its limitations, arguing that it can only provide general directional guidance but not precise price targets. PlanB himself concedes that a wide margin of error may impact the actual price trajectory.

S2F模型的批評者指出了它的局限性，認為它只能提供一般的方向指導，而不能提供精確的價格目標。 PlanB 本人也承認，較大的誤差範圍可能會影響實際的價格軌跡。

Bullish Voices Echo Support

看漲聲音迴聲支持

Despite these caveats, other market observers are also bullish on Bitcoin. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, believes that the next peak could climb as high as $92,000, contingent on a period of price correction. He emphasizes that retail investors are just starting to dip their toes into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with a surge expected around the Bitcoin Halving event.

儘管有這些警告，其他市場觀察家也看好比特幣。 Ledn 首席投資長 John Glover 認為，下一個高峰可能會攀升至 92,000 美元，具體取決於一段時間的價格調整。他強調，散戶才剛開始透過交易所交易基金（ETF）涉足比特幣，預計比特幣減半事件期間散戶投資者的數量將激增。

Dissenting Opinions: The Fred Krueger Effect

不同意見：弗雷德·克魯格效應

Not everyone is convinced by the PlanB-inspired model. Fred Krueger, a prominent Bitcoin investor, has denounced it as flawed and called for its removal from the market. Notably, Krueger does not outright dismiss the possibility of Bitcoin eclipsing $85,000.

並非所有人都相信 PlanB 啟發的模型。著名比特幣投資者 Fred Krueger 譴責其存在缺陷，並呼籲將其從市場上移除。值得注意的是，克魯格並沒有完全否認比特幣突破 85,000 美元的可能性。

Analysts Raise the Bar: $150,000 on the Horizon

分析師提高門檻：15 萬美元即將到來

Bullish analysts have been revising their forecasts upwards, with some predicting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. They have subsequently raised that target to $120,000 and even $150,000. This suggests that the cryptocurrency has the potential to embark on a sustained upward trajectory. With $150,000 on the radar, the $100,000 milestone seems increasingly attainable.

看漲的分析師一直在上調他們的預測，有些人預測比特幣到 2024 年底可能會達到 10 萬美元。他們隨後將該目標提高到 12 萬美元，甚至 15 萬美元。這顯示加密貨幣有潛力走上持續上升的軌道。隨著 15 萬美元的關注，10 萬美元的里程碑似乎越來越容易實現。

A Path to $95,000 and Beyond

達到 95,000 美元及以上的途徑

Assuming Bitcoin inches closer to $95,000 around the Bitcoin Halving, it could set the stage for a strong finish to the year. However, it's crucial to approach any investment in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies with a clear understanding of the risks involved.

假設比特幣減半前後比特幣價格接近 95,000 美元，這可能為今年的強勁收官奠定基礎。然而，在對比特幣或其他加密貨幣進行任何投資時，清楚了解所涉及的風險至關重要。