比特币长期持有者供应可能已触底

在 X 上的一篇新帖子中，分析师 James Van Straten 谈到了 BTC 长期持有者供应的最新趋势。

Bitcoin price has shown some strength over the last few days, finally breaking above $99,000 after a period of consolidation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Finally Breaks Above $99,000 After A Period Of Stagnation Chain-wide metrics suggest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be preparing for another leg up in the coming weeks or months. One particular on-chain metric that has historically marked Bitcoin bull market tops is now showing signs of bottoming out.

比特币价格在过去几天表现出一定的强势，经过一段时间的盘整后最终突破 99,000 美元。相关阅读：比特币价格分析：经过一段时间的停滞，比特币最终突破 99,000 美元 全链指标表明，全球最大的加密货币可能正在为未来几周或几个月的另一次上涨做好准备。历史上标志着比特币牛市见顶的一项特定链上指标现在显示出触底迹象。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply May Have Reached A Floor On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has seen a turnaround recently. Here’s what history says this could mean.

比特币长期持有者供应可能已达到底部链上数据显示，比特币长期持有者供应最近出现了好转。这就是历史所说的这可能意味着什么。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply May Have Reached A Bottom In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has talked about the latest trend in the supply of the BTC long-term holders. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.

比特币长期持有者供应可能已触底 在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析师 James Van Straten 谈到了 BTC 长期持有者供应的最新趋势。 “长期持有者”（LTH）是指从超过 155 天前就一直持有其代币的投资者。

The LTHs make up for one of the two main divisions of the market done on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as the “short-term holders” (STHs). Historically, the STHs have proven to contain the fickle-minded hands of the market who tend to easily sell at the sight of any FUD or FOMO in the sector. The LTHs, on the other hand, contain the resolute entities who can hold through crashes and rallies alike.

LTH 构成了根据持有时间划分的市场两个主要部分之一，另一部分被称为“短期持有者”(STH)。从历史上看，STH 已被证明能够遏制市场上那些思想反复无常的人，他们往往会在看到该行业出现任何 FUD 或 FOMO 时轻易抛售。另一方面，LTH 包含能够挺过崩盘和反弹的坚定实体。

That said, even these HODLers don’t sit tight forever, as they are also in it to make some profits eventually. One such event of an LTH selloff occurred during the recent all-time high exploration of the cryptocurrency, implying the rally was too good for the diamond hands to pass on.

也就是说，即使是这些持有者也不会永远坐以待毙，因为他们最终也是为了赚取一些利润。 LTH 抛售事件之一发生在加密货币最近创下历史新高的过程中，这意味着反弹太好了，钻石手无法放弃。

There are many ways to track LTH behavior, with one method being by measuring the combined amount of supply that members of the cohort have in their wallets.

追踪 LTH 行为的方法有很多，其中一种方法是测量该群体成员钱包中的总供应量。

Below is the Glassnode chart for the metric shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value over the history of Bitcoin.

下面是分析师分享的 Glassnode 指标图表，显示了比特币历史上其价值的趋势。

From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin LTH supply was declining during the last couple of months of 2024 as these investors took their profits from the rally, but recently, the indicator has shown a small turnaround as the holdings of the group have increased by around 20,000 BTC.

从图中可以看出，比特币 LTH 的供应量在 2024 年的最后几个月里一直在下降，因为这些投资者从上涨中获利了结，但最近，该指标出​​现了小幅转变，因为该集团的持有量增加了约 20,000 比特币。

This could suggest that the cohort’s supply has now bottomed out and reversed its trajectory toward the upside. Historically, though, bottoms in the metric have tended to occur around tops in the cryptocurrency’s price, meaning that this may not exactly be bullish for BTC.

这可能表明该群体的供应现已触底并扭转其上行轨迹。不过，从历史上看，该指标的底部往往出现在加密货币价格的顶部附近，这意味着这对 BTC 来说可能并不完全利好。

Nonetheless, not all of the Bitcoin tops coinciding with lows in the LTH supply were cyclical tops. The peak in the first quarter of last year, for instance, also took place alongside a bottom in the indicator.

尽管如此，并非所有与 LTH 供应量低点同时出现的比特币顶部都是周期性顶部。例如，去年第一季度的峰值也是在该指标触底的同时出现的。

It only remains to be seen whether the latest pattern in the indicator implies that the most recent top was a cyclical one or if it was simply another local top on the way to the main peak.

指标中的最新模式是否意味着最近的顶部是周期性顶部，或者它只是通往主峰途中的另一个局部顶部，还有待观察。

BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recovery rally from yesterday as its price has now surged beyond the $99,000 level.

比特币价格 比特币自昨天以来继续反弹，目前其价格已飙升至 99,000 美元以上。