比特幣長期持有者供應可能已觸底

在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析師 James Van Straten 談到了 BTC 長期持有者供應的最新趨勢。

Bitcoin price has shown some strength over the last few days, finally breaking above $99,000 after a period of consolidation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Finally Breaks Above $99,000 After A Period Of Stagnation Chain-wide metrics suggest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be preparing for another leg up in the coming weeks or months. One particular on-chain metric that has historically marked Bitcoin bull market tops is now showing signs of bottoming out.

比特幣價格在過去幾天表現出一定的強勢，經過一段時間的盤整後最終突破 99,000 美元。相關閱讀：比特幣價格分析：經過一段時間的停滯，比特幣最終突破 99,000 美元 全鏈指標表明，全球最大的加密貨幣可能正在為未來幾週或幾個月的另一次上漲做好準備。歷史上標誌著比特幣牛市見頂的一項特殊鏈上指標現在顯示出觸底跡象。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply May Have Reached A Floor On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has seen a turnaround recently. Here’s what history says this could mean.

比特幣長期持有者供應可能已達到底部鏈上數據顯示，比特幣長期持有者供應最近出現了改善。這就是歷史所說的這可能意味著什麼。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply May Have Reached A Bottom In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has talked about the latest trend in the supply of the BTC long-term holders. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.

比特幣長期持有者供應可能已觸底 在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析師 James Van Straten 談到了 BTC 長期持有者供應的最新趨勢。 「長期持有者」（LTH）是指自 155 天前以來一直持有其代幣的投資者。

The LTHs make up for one of the two main divisions of the market done on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as the “short-term holders” (STHs). Historically, the STHs have proven to contain the fickle-minded hands of the market who tend to easily sell at the sight of any FUD or FOMO in the sector. The LTHs, on the other hand, contain the resolute entities who can hold through crashes and rallies alike.

LTH 構成了根據持有時間劃分的市場兩個主要部分之一，另一部分被稱為「短期持有者」(STH)。從歷史上看，STH 已被證明能夠遏制市場上那些思想反复無常的人，他們往往會在看到該行業出現任何 FUD 或 FOMO 時輕易拋售。另一方面，LTH 包含能夠挺過崩盤和反彈的堅定實體。

That said, even these HODLers don’t sit tight forever, as they are also in it to make some profits eventually. One such event of an LTH selloff occurred during the recent all-time high exploration of the cryptocurrency, implying the rally was too good for the diamond hands to pass on.

也就是說，即使是這些持有者也不會永遠坐以待斃，因為他們最終也是為了賺取一些利潤。 LTH 拋售事件之一發生在加密貨幣最近創下歷史新高的過程中，這意味著反彈太好了，鑽石手無法放棄。

There are many ways to track LTH behavior, with one method being by measuring the combined amount of supply that members of the cohort have in their wallets.

追蹤 LTH 行為的方法有很多，其中一種方法是測量該群體成員錢包中的總供應量。

Below is the Glassnode chart for the metric shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value over the history of Bitcoin.

以下是分析師分享的 Glassnode 指標圖表，顯示了比特幣歷史上其價值的趨勢。

From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin LTH supply was declining during the last couple of months of 2024 as these investors took their profits from the rally, but recently, the indicator has shown a small turnaround as the holdings of the group have increased by around 20,000 BTC.

從圖中可以看出，比特幣LTH 的供應量在2024 年的最後幾個月一直在下降，因為這些投資者從上漲中獲利了結，但最近，該指標出現了小幅轉變，因為該集團的持有量增加了約 20,000 比特幣。

This could suggest that the cohort’s supply has now bottomed out and reversed its trajectory toward the upside. Historically, though, bottoms in the metric have tended to occur around tops in the cryptocurrency’s price, meaning that this may not exactly be bullish for BTC.

這可能表明該群體的供應現已觸底並扭轉其上行軌跡。不過，從歷史上看，該指標的底部往往出現在加密貨幣價格的頂部附近，這意味著這對 BTC 來說可能並不完全利好。

Nonetheless, not all of the Bitcoin tops coinciding with lows in the LTH supply were cyclical tops. The peak in the first quarter of last year, for instance, also took place alongside a bottom in the indicator.

儘管如此，並非所有與 LTH 供應量低點同時出現的比特幣頂部都是週期性頂部。例如，去年第一季的高峰也是在該指標觸底的同時出現的。

It only remains to be seen whether the latest pattern in the indicator implies that the most recent top was a cyclical one or if it was simply another local top on the way to the main peak.

指標中的最新模式是否意味著最近的頂部是週期性頂部，或者它只是通往主峰途中的另一個局部頂部，還有待觀察。

BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recovery rally from yesterday as its price has now surged beyond the $99,000 level.

比特幣價格 比特幣自昨天以來繼續反彈，目前其價格已飆升至 99,000 美元以上。