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Bitwise首席投资官马特·霍根(Matt Hougan)表示,比特币被证明比以往任何时候都更具弹性。
In a note to clients on Tuesday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted how Bitcoin (BTC) has remained nearly flat over the past 30 days despite an intense wave of macroeconomic pressure.
在周二给客户的一份情况下,Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan强调了比特币(BTC)在过去30天中如何保持平坦,尽管宏观经济压力很大。
“We’ve had absolutely massive forces buffeting the crypto market on all sides — from the U.S. establishing a strategic reserve to President Trump enacting tariffs on the entire world — and we’ve gone precisely sideways,” Hougan said. He argues that this behavior shows Bitcoin is itching to move higher if macro obstacles would just get out of the way.
霍根说:“从美国建立战略储备到特朗普总统在全世界征收关税,我们已经完全倾斜了。”他认为,这种行为表明,如果宏观障碍只会摆脱困境,比特币正在瘙痒。
What stands out to Hougan is how BTC is behaving very differently from previous market corrections. Traditionally seen as a highly volatile risk asset, Bitcoin has historically dropped more sharply than stocks when markets turned sour.
霍根(Hougan)脱颖而出的是,BTC的行为与以前的市场更正截然不同。传统上,比特币历史上比市场变酸时的股票更急剧下降。
In 2022, the S&P 500 dropped 24.5%, while Bitcoin plunged 58.3%. During the COVID crash of 2020, the S&P lost 33.8% and BTC followed with a 38.1% drop. Even in the late 2018 U.S.–China trade war downturn, the S&P slid 19.4% while Bitcoin crashed 37.2%.
在2022年,标准普尔500指数下降了24.5%,而比特币跌落58.3%。在2020年的Covid崩溃期间,标准普尔损失了33.8%,BTC下降了38.1%。即使在2018年后期的美国 - 中国贸易战争下滑,标准普尔人也下跌了19.4%,而比特币坠毁了37.2%。
By contrast, in the current correction, both the S&P and Bitcoin are down roughly 12%. That parity is unprecedented, Hougan says — and may mark the beginning of a fundamental shift.
相比之下,在当前校正中,S&P和比特币都下降了约12%。霍根说,这种平价是前所未有的,并且可能标志着基本转变的开始。
As corporations and governments began accumulating Bitcoin in a big way, and some are now mulling BTC for strategic reserves, the asset is beginning to look more like a macro hedge than a speculative tool.
随着公司和政府开始大量积累比特币,现在有些人正在考虑BTC的战略储备,因此资产看起来更像是宏观树篱,而不是投机工具。
“There’s no guarantee this relationship will hold, or that the remarkable strength we’ve seen out of Bitcoin lasts forever,” Hougan noted. “But the hedge-asset narrative is gaining traction — and that’s a big deal.”
Hougan指出:“无法保证这种关系将会存在,或者我们从比特币中看到的显着力量永远持续下去。” “但是树篱资产的叙述正在引起人们的关注 - 这很重要。”
Of course, gold is still outperforming Bitcoin during this pullback, and the crypto market is still quite volatile. But the fact that BTC is staying above $80,000 and largely holding its own while global markets are in a state of upheaval is, to Hougan, a powerful signal.
当然,在此回调期间,黄金仍然优于比特币,加密市场仍然非常波动。但是,在全球市场处于动荡状态的同时,BTC的居住在80,000美元以上,并且在很大程度上拥有自己的事实,这是对霍根的强大信号。
“The world is unraveling, and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000,” Hougan wrote. “If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will.”
霍根写道:“世界正在瓦解,比特币的交易超过80,000美元。” “如果那不让您对持久力的信心,我不知道会怎样。”
As the broader market seeks stability amid a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop, and the crypto space continues to mature, BTC may be carving out a more stable and central role in the global financial ecosystem — one correction at a time.
随着更广阔的市场在动荡的宏观经济背景中寻求稳定,加密货币空间继续成熟,BTC可能在全球金融生态系统中占据更加稳定,更中心的作用 - 一次纠正。
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