如果纳斯达克倒退加深，比特币将面临急剧下降

彼得·席夫（Peter Schiff）警告说，如果纳斯达克倒退加深，比特币将面临急剧下降的幅度，预测一波恐慌销售可能会动摇投资者的信心并破坏市场的稳定。

The rout in the Nasdaq could spell a steep decline for bitcoin, warns economist Peter Schiff, as he predicts a wave of panic selling that could shake investor confidence and destabilize markets.

经济学家彼得·席夫（Peter Schiff）警告说，纳斯达克的溃败可能会使比特币急剧下降，因为他预测一波恐慌销售浪潮，可能会动摇投资者的信心并破坏市场的稳定。

Unwinding the Correlation: A 12% Setback in the Tech Index

放松相关性：技术指数中的12％挫折

suggesting that a prolonged downturn in the Nasdaq could severely impact the cryptocurrency’s price. Schiff highlighted current market conditions in a post on social media platform X on Friday.

暗示纳斯达克延长的低迷可能会严重影响加密货币的价格。 Schiff在周五的社交媒体平台X上的帖子中强调了当前的市场状况。

The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, bitcoin will be about $65K.

纳斯达克下跌12％。如果这种更正是一个熊市，而纳斯达克股票下降12％的相关性等同于比特币持有的24％，那么纳斯达克股票下跌20％时，比特币将达到65,000美元。

However, he cautioned that bear markets typically bring much larger declines.

但是，他警告说，熊市通常会带来更大的下降。

If the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger.

如果纳斯达克进入熊市，历史表明，下降将大得多。

The economist projected that if the Nasdaq experiences a substantial decline, bitcoin could face an even steeper collapse.

这位经济学家预测，如果纳斯达克经历大幅下降，比特币将面临更陡峭的崩溃。

If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate bitcoin’s collapse to much lower levels.

如果这个熊市的市场仅下降了40％，那将使比特币达到约20K美元。但是，我的赌注是，一滴量会加速比特币的崩溃到更低的水平。

Schiff also noted that gold has been moving inversely to the Nasdaq, gaining 13% since the stock index's peak in December 2023. He suggested that if this trend continues and the U.S. stock market plunges, gold could rise above $3,800, especially if the greenback weakens.

席夫还指出，黄金已经跃向纳斯达克，自2023年12月股票指数的峰值以来，纳斯达克股票增长了13％。他建议，如果这种趋势持续并且美国股市暴跌，黄金可能会上升3,800美元以上，尤其是绿色背部疲软。

Schiff has long argued that gold is a better hedge against economic uncertainty than bitcoin, which he predicts will lose more of its credibility if it continues to decline while gold rises. He added that such a divergence between gold and bitcoin would further damage bitcoin’s credibility.

长期以来，席夫一直认为，黄金比比特币更好地抵抗经济不确定性的对冲，他预计，如果黄金升起时，黄金将失去更多的信誉。他补充说，黄金和比特币之间的这种分歧将进一步损害比特币的信誉。

Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any bitcoin in a strategic reserve.

鉴于这种差异可能会结束比特币是一种类似于黄金的价值存储的假装，因此，美国政府或任何州政府将任何比特币都保留在战略储备中显然没有理由。

Schiff further predicted that investors would likely sell their bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, triggering widespread selling.

Schiff进一步预测，投资者可能会出售其比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）持股，从而引发广泛的销售。

There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for MSTR [Microstrategy] to sell enough bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.

ETF投资者也没有理由继续保持自己的职位。随着所有这些销售，MSTR [MicroStrategy]不可能出售足够的比特币来避免破产。

However, Schiff admitted that his explanation was not a “serious analysis.” He clarified:

但是，席夫承认他的解释不是“认真的分析”。他澄清了：

It’s not meant to be. Just pointing something out. If the NASDAQ drops 20%, I expect bitcoin to be lower than $65K.

这并不意味着。只是指出一些东西。如果纳斯达克股票下跌20％，我预计比特币将低于$ 65K。

Despite the downturn, many bitcoin price predictions remain optimistic, driven by industry leaders and regulatory developments. Tim Draper maintains his $250,000 forecast for 2025, while Tom Lee expects bitcoin to be the year’s top-performing asset. Standard Chartered projects a $500,000 valuation, and Michael Saylor envisions $13 million by 2045. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and Abra CEO Bill Barhydt recently highlighted bitcoin’s adoption and resilience. The White House Crypto Summit reinforced market confidence, with President Trump pledging support and proposing a strategic bitcoin reserve, signaling a shift toward favorable regulation.

尽管下滑，但许多比特币的价格预测仍然是乐观的，这是由行业领导者和监管发展驱动的。蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）保持了他2025年的25万美元预测，而汤姆·李（Tom Lee）预计比特币将成为当年表现最好的资产。标准特许计划的估值为500,000美元，迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）设想到2045年。特朗普总统承诺支持并提出战略性比特币储备，这表明朝着有利的监管转变，因此白宫加密峰会增强了市场信心。