如果納斯達克倒退加深，比特幣將面臨急劇下降

彼得·席夫（Peter Schiff）警告說，如果納斯達克倒退加深，比特幣將面臨急劇下降的幅度，預測一波恐慌銷售可能會動搖投資者的信心並破壞市場的穩定。

The rout in the Nasdaq could spell a steep decline for bitcoin, warns economist Peter Schiff, as he predicts a wave of panic selling that could shake investor confidence and destabilize markets.

經濟學家彼得·席夫（Peter Schiff）警告說，納斯達克的潰敗可能會使比特幣急劇下降，因為他預測一波恐慌銷售浪潮，可能會動搖投資者的信心並破壞市場的穩定。

Unwinding the Correlation: A 12% Setback in the Tech Index

放鬆相關性：技術指數中的12％挫折

suggesting that a prolonged downturn in the Nasdaq could severely impact the cryptocurrency’s price. Schiff highlighted current market conditions in a post on social media platform X on Friday.

暗示納斯達克延長的低迷可能會嚴重影響加密貨幣的價格。 Schiff在周五的社交媒體平台X上的帖子中強調了當前的市場狀況。

The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, bitcoin will be about $65K.

納斯達克下跌12％。如果這種更正是一個熊市，而納斯達克股票下降12％的相關性等同於比特幣持有的24％，那麼納斯達克股票下跌20％時，比特幣將達到65,000美元。

However, he cautioned that bear markets typically bring much larger declines.

但是，他警告說，熊市通常會帶來更大的下降。

If the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history shows that the decline will be much larger.

如果納斯達克進入熊市，歷史表明，下降將大得多。

The economist projected that if the Nasdaq experiences a substantial decline, bitcoin could face an even steeper collapse.

這位經濟學家預測，如果納斯達克經歷大幅下降，比特幣將面臨更陡峭的崩潰。

If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate bitcoin’s collapse to much lower levels.

如果這個熊市的市場僅下降了40％，那將使比特幣達到約20K美元。但是，我的賭注是，一滴量會加速比特幣的崩潰到更低的水平。

Schiff also noted that gold has been moving inversely to the Nasdaq, gaining 13% since the stock index's peak in December 2023. He suggested that if this trend continues and the U.S. stock market plunges, gold could rise above $3,800, especially if the greenback weakens.

席夫還指出，黃金已經躍向納斯達克，自2023年12月股票指數的峰值以來，納斯達克股票增長了13％。他建議，如果這種趨勢持續並且美國股市暴跌，黃金可能會上升3,800美元以上，尤其是綠色背部疲軟。

Schiff has long argued that gold is a better hedge against economic uncertainty than bitcoin, which he predicts will lose more of its credibility if it continues to decline while gold rises. He added that such a divergence between gold and bitcoin would further damage bitcoin’s credibility.

長期以來，席夫一直認為，黃金比比特幣更好地抵抗經濟不確定性的對沖，他預計，如果黃金升起時，黃金將失去更多的信譽。他補充說，黃金和比特幣之間的這種分歧將進一步損害比特幣的信譽。

Given that such a divergence will likely end the pretense that bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold, there will clearly be no justification for the U.S. government or any state government to keep any bitcoin in a strategic reserve.

鑑於這種差異可能會結束比特幣是一種類似於黃金的價值存儲的假裝，因此，美國政府或任何州政府將任何比特幣都保留在戰略儲備中顯然沒有理由。

Schiff further predicted that investors would likely sell their bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, triggering widespread selling.

Schiff進一步預測，投資者可能會出售其比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）持股，從而引發廣泛的銷售。

There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for MSTR [Microstrategy] to sell enough bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy.

ETF投資者也沒有理由繼續保持自己的職位。隨著所有這些銷售，MSTR [MicroStrategy]不可能出售足夠的比特幣來避免破產。

However, Schiff admitted that his explanation was not a “serious analysis.” He clarified:

但是，席夫承認他的解釋不是“認真的分析”。他澄清了：

It’s not meant to be. Just pointing something out. If the NASDAQ drops 20%, I expect bitcoin to be lower than $65K.

這並不意味著。只是指出一些東西。如果納斯達克股票下跌20％，我預計比特幣將低於$ 65K。

Despite the downturn, many bitcoin price predictions remain optimistic, driven by industry leaders and regulatory developments. Tim Draper maintains his $250,000 forecast for 2025, while Tom Lee expects bitcoin to be the year’s top-performing asset. Standard Chartered projects a $500,000 valuation, and Michael Saylor envisions $13 million by 2045. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and Abra CEO Bill Barhydt recently highlighted bitcoin’s adoption and resilience. The White House Crypto Summit reinforced market confidence, with President Trump pledging support and proposing a strategic bitcoin reserve, signaling a shift toward favorable regulation.

儘管下滑，但許多比特幣的價格預測仍然是樂觀的，這是由行業領導者和監管發展驅動的。蒂姆·德雷珀（Tim Draper）保持了他2025年的25萬美元預測，而湯姆·李（Tom Lee）預計比特幣將成為當年表現最好的資產。標準特許計劃的估值為500,000美元，邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）設想到2045年。特朗普總統承諾支持並提出戰略性比特幣儲備，這表明朝著有利的監管轉變，因此白宮加密峰會增強了市場信心。