比特币飙升：专家预测波动性将减少 50%，机构需求激增

随着比特币矿工适应减半事件后奖励减少的情况，行业专家对未来做出了预测。 Bitwise 的首席信息官 Matt Hougan 预测比特币的发展轨迹将发生重大转变，他概述了五个关键预测，这些预测揭示了该资产走向机构采用、增加投资组合配置和价格潜力飙升的预计路径。

Bitcoin's Meteoric Ascent: Experts Foresee 50% Volatility Reduction and Institutional Dominance

比特币的迅速崛起：专家预计波动性将减少 50%，机构将占据主导地位

As Bitcoin miners come to terms with the aftermath of the recent halving event, industry luminaries are offering valuable insights into the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. Foremost among them is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, who has outlined five key predictions that shed light on Bitcoin's path in the years leading up to the next halving in 2028.

随着比特币矿工接受最近减半事件的后果，行业名人正在为加密货币的未来轨迹提供宝贵的见解。其中最重要的是 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan，他概述了五个关键预测，这些预测揭示了比特币在 2028 年下一次减半之前几年的发展道路。

Declining Volatility: A Sign of Maturation

波动性下降：成熟的标志

Hougan anticipates a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, a phenomenon he attributes to the increasing presence of institutional investors via exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The CIO believes that this influx of institutional capital will bring greater stability to the market, as these investors tend to rebalance portfolios and make steady investments rather than engaging in speculative trading.

Hougan 预计比特币的波动性将大幅下降，他将这一现象归因于机构投资者通过交易所交易基金（ETF）的增加。 CIO认为，机构资本的涌入将为市场带来更大的稳定性，因为这些投资者倾向于重新平衡投资组合并进行稳定投资，而不是从事投机交易。

"ETFs attract new types of investors to the Bitcoin market, including financial advisors, family offices, and institutions," Hougan explains. "These investors behave differently from the retail investors who have traditionally dominated Bitcoin, bringing a greater level of sophistication and risk management to the ecosystem."

“ETF 吸引了新型投资者进入比特币市场，包括财务顾问、家族办公室和机构，”Hougan 解释道。 “这些投资者的行为与传统上主导比特币的散户投资者不同，为生态系统带来了更高水平的复杂性和风险管理。”

Growing Portfolio Allocations: A Vote of Confidence

增加投资组合配置：信心投票

Experts predict that Bitcoin allocations in target-date portfolios, a popular retirement savings vehicle, could reach 5% or more in the coming years. Hougan states, "I expect to see the average portfolio allocation to Bitcoin rise to the point where it becomes commonplace to hold 5% or more of one's portfolio in this asset." This growing acceptance indicates a shift in sentiment toward Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a legitimate investment option.

专家预测，未来几年，目标日期投资组合（一种流行的退休储蓄工具）中的比特币配置可能会达到 5% 或更多。 Hougan 表示，“我预计比特币的平均投资组合配置会上升到持有该资产 5% 或更多的投资组合变得司空见惯的程度。”这种日益增长的接受度表明人们对比特币的态度发生了转变，巩固了其作为合法投资选择的地位。

ETF Flows Surpass $200 Billion: A Tidal Wave of Capital

ETF流量突破2000亿美元：资本浪潮

Hougan predicts a meteoric rise in Bitcoin ETF inflows, surpassing the $200 billion mark in the near future. "In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted approximately $12.5 billion in net flows since their launch just three months ago," Hougan notes. "This makes them the fastest-growing new ETF category in history." As more investors discover the benefits of ETFs and financial institutions join the trend, Hougan anticipates sustained long-term demand for Bitcoin.

Hougan 预测比特币 ETF 流入量将迅速增加，在不久的将来将突破 2000 亿美元大关。 “在美国，比特币 ETF 自三个月前推出以来已经吸引了约 125 亿美元的净流量，”Hougan 指出。 “这使它们成为历史上增长最快的新 ETF 类别。”随着越来越多的投资者发现 ETF 的好处以及金融机构加入这一趋势，Hougan 预计对比特币的长期需求将持续存在。

Central Banks Embrace Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Finance

央行拥抱比特币：金融范式转变

Hougan speculates that central banks, intrigued by Bitcoin's unique properties as non-debt money and its utility in a geopolitically fraught world, may begin allocating reserves to the cryptocurrency. He suggests that central banks could view Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical risks, marking a significant shift in global finance.

霍根推测，各国央行对比特币作为非债务货币的独特属性及其在地缘政治充满争议的世界中的效用感兴趣，可能会开始向加密货币分配储备。他建议央行可以将比特币视为对冲地缘政治风险的工具，这标志着全球金融的重大转变。

"Central banks are recognizing the potential benefits of Bitcoin, including its non-inflationary nature, its ability to diversify reserves, and its role as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty," Hougan explains. "This could lead to substantial demand for Bitcoin from central banks around the world."

“各国央行正在认识到比特币的潜在好处，包括其非通胀性、实现储备多元化的能力，以及在不确定时期作为避险资产的作用，”Hougan 解释道。 “这可能会导致世界各地央行对比特币的大量需求。”

Bitcoin Price Surpasses $250,000: A New Era of Value

比特币价格突破 25 万美元：价值新时代

With Bitcoin's growing mainstream acceptance and institutional backing, Hougan predicts a surge in its price, potentially exceeding $250,000 per Bitcoin by 2028. He believes that the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream as more institutions and investors embrace it.

随着比特币越来越被主流接受和机构支持，Hougan 预测其价格将飙升，到 2028 年每个比特币可能会超过 25 万美元。他相信，随着更多机构和投资者的接受，该资产将继续进一步进入主流。

"With ETFs gaining traction and major Wall Street firms aligning themselves with Bitcoin, I expect the asset to continue to gain legitimacy and attract even more institutional participation," Hougan states. "This could lead to a significant increase in demand and drive the price of Bitcoin to new heights."

Hougan 表示：“随着 ETF 越来越受欢迎，以及华尔街主要公司与比特币结盟，我预计该资产将继续获得合法性并吸引更多机构参与。” “这可能会导致需求大幅增加，并将比特币的价格推向新的高度。”

Industry Experts Echo Hougan's Optimism

行业专家赞同侯根的乐观态度

Hougan's predictions are echoed by other industry experts, who also anticipate substantial price increases driven by institutional adoption and broader acceptance. Pav Hundal predicts a 100% price increase, while Henrik Andersson envisions prices reaching $200,000 before 2028. This bullish outlook is supported by the ongoing institutional interest and growing market presence of Bitcoin.

霍根的预测得到了其他行业专家的响应，他们也预计，由于机构采用和更广泛的接受，价格将大幅上涨。 Pav Hundal 预测价格将上涨 100%，而 Henrik Andersson 则预计价格在 2028 年之前达到 200,000 美元。这种看涨前景得到了持续的机构兴趣和比特币不断增长的市场影响力的支持。

As Bitcoin miners navigate the challenges of reduced rewards, predictions for the next halving offer valuable insights into the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. With institutional interest on the rise and Bitcoin's role evolving, the next halving could mark a significant milestone in Bitcoin's journey toward mainstream acceptance and adoption.

随着比特币矿工应对奖励减少的挑战，对下一次减半的预测为加密货币的未来轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。随着机构兴趣的增加和比特币角色的演变，下一次减半可能标志着比特币走向主流接受和采用之旅的一个重要里程碑。