比特幣飆升：專家預測波動性將減少 50%，機構需求激增

隨著比特幣礦工適應減半事件後獎勵減少的情況，產業專家對未來做出了預測。 Bitwise 的資訊長 Matt Hougan 預測比特幣的發展軌跡將發生重大轉變，他概述了五個關鍵預測，這些預測揭示了該資產走向機構採用、增加投資組合配置和價格潛力飆升的預期路徑。

Bitcoin's Meteoric Ascent: Experts Foresee 50% Volatility Reduction and Institutional Dominance

比特幣的快速崛起：專家預計波動性將減少 50%，機構將佔據主導地位

As Bitcoin miners come to terms with the aftermath of the recent halving event, industry luminaries are offering valuable insights into the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. Foremost among them is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, who has outlined five key predictions that shed light on Bitcoin's path in the years leading up to the next halving in 2028.

隨著比特幣礦工接受最近減半事件的後果，行業名人正在為加密貨幣的未來軌跡提供寶貴的見解。其中最重要的是 Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan，他概述了五個關鍵預測，這些預測揭示了比特幣在 2028 年下一次減半之前幾年的發展道路。

Declining Volatility: A Sign of Maturation

波動性下降：成熟的標誌

Hougan anticipates a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, a phenomenon he attributes to the increasing presence of institutional investors via exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The CIO believes that this influx of institutional capital will bring greater stability to the market, as these investors tend to rebalance portfolios and make steady investments rather than engaging in speculative trading.

Hougan 預計比特幣的波動性將大幅下降，他將這一現象歸因於機構投資者透過交易所交易基金（ETF）的增加。 CIO認為，機構資本的湧入將為市場帶來更大的穩定性，因為這些投資者傾向於重新平衡投資組合併進行穩定投資，而不是從事投機交易。

"ETFs attract new types of investors to the Bitcoin market, including financial advisors, family offices, and institutions," Hougan explains. "These investors behave differently from the retail investors who have traditionally dominated Bitcoin, bringing a greater level of sophistication and risk management to the ecosystem."

「ETF 吸引了新型投資者進入比特幣市場，包括財務顧問、家族辦公室和機構，」Hougan 解釋道。 “這些投資者的行為與傳統上主導比特幣的散戶投資者不同，為生態系統帶來了更高水平的複雜性和風險管理。”

Growing Portfolio Allocations: A Vote of Confidence

增加投資組合配置：信心投票

Experts predict that Bitcoin allocations in target-date portfolios, a popular retirement savings vehicle, could reach 5% or more in the coming years. Hougan states, "I expect to see the average portfolio allocation to Bitcoin rise to the point where it becomes commonplace to hold 5% or more of one's portfolio in this asset." This growing acceptance indicates a shift in sentiment toward Bitcoin, solidifying its position as a legitimate investment option.

專家預測，未來幾年，目標日期投資組合（一種流行的退休儲蓄工具）中的比特幣配置可能會達到 5% 或更多。 Hougan 表示，“我預計比特幣的平均投資組合配置會上升到持有該資產 5% 或更多的投資組合變得司空見慣的程度。”這種日益增長的接受度表明人們對比特幣的態度發生了轉變，鞏固了其作為合法投資選擇的地位。

ETF Flows Surpass $200 Billion: A Tidal Wave of Capital

ETF流量突破2000億美元：資本浪潮

Hougan predicts a meteoric rise in Bitcoin ETF inflows, surpassing the $200 billion mark in the near future. "In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted approximately $12.5 billion in net flows since their launch just three months ago," Hougan notes. "This makes them the fastest-growing new ETF category in history." As more investors discover the benefits of ETFs and financial institutions join the trend, Hougan anticipates sustained long-term demand for Bitcoin.

Hougan 預測比特幣 ETF 流入量將迅速增加，在不久的將來將突破 2000 億美元大關。 「在美國，比特幣 ETF 自三個月前推出以來已經吸引了約 125 億美元的淨流量，」Hougan 指出。 “這使它們成為歷史上增長最快的新 ETF 類別。”隨著越來越多的投資者發現 ETF 的好處以及金融機構加入這一趨勢，Hougan 預計對比特幣的長期需求將持續存在。

Central Banks Embrace Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Finance

央行擁抱比特幣：金融典範轉移

Hougan speculates that central banks, intrigued by Bitcoin's unique properties as non-debt money and its utility in a geopolitically fraught world, may begin allocating reserves to the cryptocurrency. He suggests that central banks could view Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical risks, marking a significant shift in global finance.

霍根推測，各國央行對比特幣作為非債務貨幣的獨特屬性及其在地緣政治充滿爭議的世界中的效用感興趣，可能會開始向加密貨幣分配儲備。他建議央行可以將比特幣視為對沖地緣政治風險的工具，這標誌著全球金融的重大轉變。

"Central banks are recognizing the potential benefits of Bitcoin, including its non-inflationary nature, its ability to diversify reserves, and its role as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty," Hougan explains. "This could lead to substantial demand for Bitcoin from central banks around the world."

「各國央行正在認識到比特幣的潛在好處，包括其非通膨性、實現儲備多元化的能力，以及在不確定時期作為避險資產的作用，」Hougan 解釋道。 “這可能會導致世界各地央行對比特幣的大量需求。”

Bitcoin Price Surpasses $250,000: A New Era of Value

比特幣價格突破 25 萬美元：價值新時代

With Bitcoin's growing mainstream acceptance and institutional backing, Hougan predicts a surge in its price, potentially exceeding $250,000 per Bitcoin by 2028. He believes that the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream as more institutions and investors embrace it.

隨著比特幣越來越被主流接受和機構支持，Hougan 預測其價格將飆升，到2028 年每個比特幣可能會超過25 萬美元。資產將繼續進一步進入主流。

"With ETFs gaining traction and major Wall Street firms aligning themselves with Bitcoin, I expect the asset to continue to gain legitimacy and attract even more institutional participation," Hougan states. "This could lead to a significant increase in demand and drive the price of Bitcoin to new heights."

Hougan 表示：“隨著 ETF 越來越受歡迎，以及華爾街主要公司與比特幣結盟，我預計該資產將繼續獲得合法性並吸引更多機構參與。” “這可能會導致需求大幅增加，並將比特幣的價格推向新的高度。”

Industry Experts Echo Hougan's Optimism

業界專家贊同侯根的樂觀態度

Hougan's predictions are echoed by other industry experts, who also anticipate substantial price increases driven by institutional adoption and broader acceptance. Pav Hundal predicts a 100% price increase, while Henrik Andersson envisions prices reaching $200,000 before 2028. This bullish outlook is supported by the ongoing institutional interest and growing market presence of Bitcoin.

霍根的預測得到了其他行業專家的回應，他們也預計，由於機構採用和更廣泛的接受，價格將大幅上漲。 Pav Hundal 預測價格將上漲 100%，而 Henrik Andersson 則預計價格在 2028 年之前達到 20 萬美元。

As Bitcoin miners navigate the challenges of reduced rewards, predictions for the next halving offer valuable insights into the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. With institutional interest on the rise and Bitcoin's role evolving, the next halving could mark a significant milestone in Bitcoin's journey toward mainstream acceptance and adoption.

隨著比特幣礦工應對獎勵減少的挑戰，對下一次減半的預測為加密貨幣的未來軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。隨著機構興趣的增加和比特幣角色的演變，下一次減半可能標誌著比特幣走向主流接受和採用之旅的一個重要里程碑。