比特币在关税混乱，经济衰退警告上滑动 - 但这是购买机会吗？

比特币的价格在周一飙升至79000美元以下，自年初以来下降了15％以上，远远超过了一月份的历史最高点109114.88。

President Donald Trump's threat to hit 50% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. has rattled global markets, with Asian and European stock indices opening sharply lower on Monday.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统对进入美国的所有中国商品的关税威胁都震撼了全球市场，周一亚洲和欧洲股票指数大幅下降。

Meanwhile, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink told the Economic Club of New York that the U.S. is "probably in a recession" already, adding that markets could fall another 20% from here.

同时，贝莱德（NYSE：BLK）首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）告诉纽约经济俱乐部，美国已经“可能正在经济衰退”，并补充说，市场可能会从这里再下降20％。

However, Fink also viewed current levels as "more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity."

但是，芬克还认为当前水平是“更多的购买机会，而不是卖出机会”。

Bitcoin (BTC) price teetered under the $79,000 mark on Monday, down more than 15% since the start of the year and well off its January all-time high of $109,114.88.

比特币（BTC）的价格在周一的79,000美元下跌低于79,000美元，自今年年初以来下降了15％以上，其一月份的历史最高高点为109,114.88美元。

The downturn has been driven by Trump's sweeping tariff threats against China and a growing chorus of recession warnings from Wall Street's biggest voices.

经济低迷是由特朗普对中国的广泛关税威胁以及华尔街最大声音的衰退警告的越来越多的驱动的。

Yet amid the market turbulence, some investors see the correction as a long-term buying opportunity—and there's a case to be made that Bitcoin's current dip is less a cause for panic and more a test of conviction.

然而，在市场动荡中，一些投资者将纠正视为长期购买机会，而且可以说比特币目前的下降不是恐慌的原因，而是对信念的考验。

Trump's tariffs on China are set to increase to 50% on July 10, prompting China to retaliate with duties of its own on U.S. goods. The move threatens to derail trade talks and escalate the trade war to new heights.

特朗普对中国的关税将在7月10日上升到50％，促使中国对自己对美国商品的关税进行报复。此举有可能使贸易谈判脱轨，并将贸易战争升级到新的高度。

The tariffs will directly impact Bitcoin only if they are applied to Bitcoin mining equipment or other goods and services related to the industry. However, the broader economic slowdown and market sell-off could have significant implications for Bitcoin's price action in the short term.

关税只有将比特币应用于比特币采矿设备或与行业相关的其他商品和服务时会影响比特币。但是，在短期内，更广泛的经济放缓和市场抛售可能会对比特币的价格行动产生重大影响。

Bitcoin is often viewed as a non-correlated or safe-haven asset, and its price movements are not expected to be directly affected by tariffs on other goods. However, the indirect effects of tariffs, such as reduced trade, liquidity crunches, and broader market volatility, could continue to weigh heavily on Bitcoin in the coming months.

比特币经常被视为无关或避风港的资产，其价格变动预计不会直接受其他商品关税的影响。但是，在接下来的几个月中，关税的间接影响（例如贸易降低，流动性脆弱和更广泛的市场波动）的间接影响可能会继续对比特币产生重大影响。

Bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent weeks, and its price remains down substantially from its highs. However, some analysts believe that Bitcoin could fall further in the short term, especially if Trump follows through with his threats of tariffs.

比特币在最近几周急剧下降，其价格与其高点相比大大降低。但是，一些分析人士认为，比特币在短期内可能会进一步降临，尤其是如果特朗普遵循自己的关税威胁。

Despite the near-term pessimism, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several price predictions suggest that BTC could rise to six-figure levels by the end of 2024, presenting a significant opportunity for investors who buy during this downturn.

尽管有近期的悲观情绪，但比特币的长期前景仍然看涨。几个价格预测表明，到2024年底，BTC可能会提高到六位数的水平，这为投资者提供了巨大的机会，这些投资者在低迷期间购买。

According to Changelly's April 2025 Bitcoin prediction table, BTC is expected to trade between $84,333 and $126,089 this month, with an average of $105,211.

根据Changelly 2025年4月的比特币预测表，BTC预计本月的交易在84,333至126,089美元之间，平均为105,211美元。

That suggests a potential ROI of over 53% from today's levels.

这表明潜在的投资回报率超过了今天的水平超过53％。

Bitcoin Prediction Table for 2025:

2025年比特币预测表：

The forecasts reflect optimism about BTC's long-term performance, even if short-term volatility persists.

预测反映了对BTC长期绩效的乐观情绪，即使短期波动率仍然存在。

While some continue to view Bitcoin as "digital gold," its behavior during this downturn suggests it still trades more like a risk asset.

尽管有些人继续将比特币视为“数字黄金”，但在这种低迷期间的行为表明它仍然更像是风险资产。

When markets turn chaotic, investors often liquidate crypto holdings to cover margin calls, pay bills, or escape volatility—and that's exactly what's happening now.

当市场变得混乱时，投资者经常清算加密货币的持有量，以支付保证金电话，支付账单或逃脱波动，这正是现在正在发生的事情。

But the very forces causing panic today—inflation fears, political instability, and dollar devaluation—could be the same tailwinds that send Bitcoin soaring over the next cycle.

但是，如今引起恐慌的力量 - 通货膨胀的恐惧，政治不稳定和美元贬值 - 可能是在下一个周期中发出比特币飙升的相同尾雨。

As CoinTelegraph noted, some investors are already "buying the dip," while others remain on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation that the market has bottomed.

正如Cointelegraph所指出的那样，一些投资者已经在“购买蘸酱”，而另一些投资者仍处于场外，等待确认市场已经触底。

Is Now a Good Time To Buy Bitcoin?It depends on your time horizon. If you’re a short-term trader, the volatility could be punishing. But if you're a long-term investor, buying during periods of fear and uncertainty has historically delivered strong returns—especially in assets like Bitcoin.

现在是购买比特币的好时机吗？这取决于您的时间范围。如果您是短期交易者，那么波动性可能会受到惩罚。但是，如果您是长期投资者，那么在恐惧和不确定性期间购买就可以带来丰厚的回报，尤其是在比特币等资产中。

As Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (NYSE:SETY), reminded investors Monday, "1 BTC = 1 BTC." Saylor's firm holds nearly 500,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $66,357—still well below current levels.

正如战略首席执行官（NYSE：SETY）的首席执行官迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）周一提醒投资者：“ 1 BTC = 1 BTC”。 Saylor的公司持有近50万BTC，平均价格为66,357美元，远低于目前的水平。

So while no one can predict the bottom, the case for accumulating Bitcoin during macroeconomic turbulence continues to strengthen. Just be prepared for more volatility—and potentially more downside—before the next leg up begins.

因此，尽管没有人能预测底部，但在宏观经济湍流期间积累比特币的情况仍在继续增强。在下一阶段开始之前，只要准备更大的波动率，并且有可能更不利的一面。