比特幣在關稅混亂，經濟衰退警告上滑動 - 但這是購買機會嗎？

比特幣的價格在周一飆升至79000美元以下，自年初以來下降了15％以上，遠遠超過了一月份的歷史最高點109114.88。

President Donald Trump's threat to hit 50% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. has rattled global markets, with Asian and European stock indices opening sharply lower on Monday.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統對進入美國的所有中國商品的關稅威脅都震撼了全球市場，週一亞洲和歐洲股票指數大幅下降。

Meanwhile, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink told the Economic Club of New York that the U.S. is "probably in a recession" already, adding that markets could fall another 20% from here.

同時，貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）告訴紐約經濟俱樂部，美國已經“可能正在經濟衰退”，並補充說，市場可能會從這裡再下降20％。

However, Fink also viewed current levels as "more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity."

但是，芬克還認為當前水平是“更多的購買機會，而不是賣出機會”。

Bitcoin (BTC) price teetered under the $79,000 mark on Monday, down more than 15% since the start of the year and well off its January all-time high of $109,114.88.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在周一的79,000美元下跌低於79,000美元，自今年年初以來下降了15％以上，其一月份的歷史最高高點為109,114.88美元。

The downturn has been driven by Trump's sweeping tariff threats against China and a growing chorus of recession warnings from Wall Street's biggest voices.

經濟低迷是由特朗普對中國的廣泛關稅威脅以及華爾街最大聲音的衰退警告的越來越多的驅動的。

Yet amid the market turbulence, some investors see the correction as a long-term buying opportunity—and there's a case to be made that Bitcoin's current dip is less a cause for panic and more a test of conviction.

然而，在市場動盪中，一些投資者將糾正視為長期購買機會，而且可以說比特幣目前的下降不是恐慌的原因，而是對信念的考驗。

Trump's tariffs on China are set to increase to 50% on July 10, prompting China to retaliate with duties of its own on U.S. goods. The move threatens to derail trade talks and escalate the trade war to new heights.

特朗普對中國的關稅將在7月10日上升到50％，促使中國對自己對美國商品的關稅進行報復。此舉有可能使貿易談判脫軌，並將貿易戰爭升級到新的高度。

The tariffs will directly impact Bitcoin only if they are applied to Bitcoin mining equipment or other goods and services related to the industry. However, the broader economic slowdown and market sell-off could have significant implications for Bitcoin's price action in the short term.

關稅只有將比特幣應用於比特幣採礦設備或與行業相關的其他商品和服務時會影響比特幣。但是，在短期內，更廣泛的經濟放緩和市場拋售可能會對比特幣的價格行動產生重大影響。

Bitcoin is often viewed as a non-correlated or safe-haven asset, and its price movements are not expected to be directly affected by tariffs on other goods. However, the indirect effects of tariffs, such as reduced trade, liquidity crunches, and broader market volatility, could continue to weigh heavily on Bitcoin in the coming months.

比特幣經常被視為無關或避風港的資產，其價格變動預計不會直接受其他商品關稅的影響。但是，在接下來的幾個月中，關稅的間接影響（例如貿易降低，流動性脆弱和更廣泛的市場波動）的間接影響可能會繼續對比特幣產生重大影響。

Bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent weeks, and its price remains down substantially from its highs. However, some analysts believe that Bitcoin could fall further in the short term, especially if Trump follows through with his threats of tariffs.

比特幣在最近幾週急劇下降，其價格與其高點相比大大降低。但是，一些分析人士認為，比特幣在短期內可能會進一步降臨，尤其是如果特朗普遵循自己的關稅威脅。

Despite the near-term pessimism, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several price predictions suggest that BTC could rise to six-figure levels by the end of 2024, presenting a significant opportunity for investors who buy during this downturn.

儘管有近期的悲觀情緒，但比特幣的長期前景仍然看漲。幾個價格預測表明，到2024年底，BTC可能會提高到六位數的水平，這為投資者提供了巨大的機會，這些投資者在低迷期間購買。

According to Changelly's April 2025 Bitcoin prediction table, BTC is expected to trade between $84,333 and $126,089 this month, with an average of $105,211.

根據Changelly 2025年4月的比特幣預測表，BTC預計本月的交易在84,333至126,089美元之間，平均為105,211美元。

That suggests a potential ROI of over 53% from today's levels.

這表明潛在的投資回報率超過了今天的水平超過53％。

Bitcoin Prediction Table for 2025:

2025年比特幣預測表：

The forecasts reflect optimism about BTC's long-term performance, even if short-term volatility persists.

預測反映了對BTC長期績效的樂觀情緒，即使短期波動率仍然存在。

While some continue to view Bitcoin as "digital gold," its behavior during this downturn suggests it still trades more like a risk asset.

儘管有些人繼續將比特幣視為“數字黃金”，但在這種低迷期間的行為表明它仍然更像是風險資產。

When markets turn chaotic, investors often liquidate crypto holdings to cover margin calls, pay bills, or escape volatility—and that's exactly what's happening now.

當市場變得混亂時，投資者經常清算加密貨幣的持有量，以支付保證金電話，支付賬單或逃脫波動，這正是現在正在發生的事情。

But the very forces causing panic today—inflation fears, political instability, and dollar devaluation—could be the same tailwinds that send Bitcoin soaring over the next cycle.

但是，如今引起恐慌的力量 - 通貨膨脹的恐懼，政治不穩定和美元貶值 - 可能是在下一個週期中發出比特幣飆升的相同尾雨。

As CoinTelegraph noted, some investors are already "buying the dip," while others remain on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation that the market has bottomed.

正如Cointelegraph所指出的那樣，一些投資者已經在“購買蘸醬”，而另一些投資者仍處於場外，等待確認市場已經觸底。

Is Now a Good Time To Buy Bitcoin?It depends on your time horizon. If you’re a short-term trader, the volatility could be punishing. But if you're a long-term investor, buying during periods of fear and uncertainty has historically delivered strong returns—especially in assets like Bitcoin.

現在是購買比特幣的好時機嗎？這取決於您的時間範圍。如果您是短期交易者，那麼波動性可能會受到懲罰。但是，如果您是長期投資者，那麼在恐懼和不確定性期間購買就可以帶來豐厚的回報，尤其是在比特幣等資產中。

As Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy (NYSE:SETY), reminded investors Monday, "1 BTC = 1 BTC." Saylor's firm holds nearly 500,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $66,357—still well below current levels.

正如戰略首席執行官（NYSE：SETY）的首席執行官邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）週一提醒投資者：“ 1 BTC = 1 BTC”。 Saylor的公司持有近50萬BTC，平均價格為66,357美元，遠低於目前的水平。

So while no one can predict the bottom, the case for accumulating Bitcoin during macroeconomic turbulence continues to strengthen. Just be prepared for more volatility—and potentially more downside—before the next leg up begins.

因此，儘管沒有人能預測底部，但在宏觀經濟湍流期間積累比特幣的情況仍在繼續增強。在下一階段開始之前，只要準備更大的波動率，並且有可能更不利的一面。