比特币短期期货合约已滑入折扣领土

比特币在Deribit上的短期期货合约已滑入折扣领域，表明需求的潜在疲软。这标志着一年多以来的第一次，即近期期货，特别是在七天内到期的期货，其交易低于比特币的现货市场价格。

Bitcoin's short-term futures contracts on Deribit have slipped into discount territory, suggesting a potential weakness in demand for the cryptocurrency.

比特币在Deribit上的短期期货合约已滑入折扣领域，这表明对加密货币的需求潜在弱点。

This marks the first time in over a year that near-term futures, specifically those expiring within seven days, are trading below Bitcoin's spot market price on major exchanges.

这是一年多以来的第一次，即近期期货，特别是那些在7天内到期的期货，其交易价格低于比特币在主要交易所的现货市场价格。

Typically, futures contracts trade at a premium as investors are willing to pay more to gain immediate exposure to an asset, especially when they anticipate price increases.

通常，由于投资者愿意支付更多的费用以立即获得资产，尤其是当他们预计价格上涨时，期货合约交易。

However, the fact that short-term futures are now trading below spot suggests a shift in market sentiment and a potential cooling of speculative enthusiasm.

但是，现在短期未来正在交易以下的事实表明，市场情绪发生了变化和投机热情的潜在冷却。

"The new D7 futures went into contango on Monday for the first time since March 2022, signaling a strong bearish indicator," said Andrew Melville, a research analyst at Block Scholes, in an interview on Tuesday.

Block Scholes的研究分析师安德鲁·梅尔维尔（Andrew Melville）在周二的一次采访中说：“自2022年3月以来，新的D7期货于周一首次进入Contango，这表明了有力的看跌指标。”

"It indicates a decreased demand for leveraged long positions, as traders are unwilling to pay a premium for near-term Bitcoin exposure."

“这表明对杠杆率长的头寸的需求减少，因为交易者不愿支付近期比特币敞口的溢价。”

Short-term futures slipping into discount territory is a significant development, especially after a recent rally that took Bitcoin to new 2024 highs.

短期未来进入折扣领域是一个重大发展，尤其是在最近的一次集会使比特币达到2024年新高点之后。

This suggests a change in market dynamics, with traders becoming more cautious about immediate price movements.

这表明市场动态发生了变化，交易者对即时价格变动变得越来越谨慎。

"It's still too early to say whether this signals an impending crash," Melville added.

梅尔维尔补充说：“现在还为时过早说这表明即将发生撞车事故。”

"But it may reflect profit-taking activity as traders who entered long positions at lower price levels, during the March and April lows, are now securing their gains, which exerts short-term price pressure."

“但是，随着在3月和四月的低点进入较低价格的交易者现在正在确保其收益，这施加短期价格压力，这可能反映出利润活动。”

Another factor that could be influencing futures prices is the shifting liquidity conditions.

可能影响期货价格的另一个因素是流动性变化。

Funding rates, which measure the premium or discount paid to traders who hold leveraged positions, have been fluctuating, and traders are adjusting their positions accordingly.

资金利率衡量了持有杠杆头寸的交易者支付的保费或折扣，并且正在相应地调整其头寸。

"When futures premiums decline or flip into a discount, it typically signals reduced speculative interest, which can impact broader market sentiment," a digital asset market analyst explained.

一位数字资产市场分析师解释说：“当期货溢价下降或折价时，它通常信号会减少投机兴趣，这可能会影响更广泛的市场情绪。”

"This liquidity factor is crucial in cryptocurrencies, where a large portion of trading volume comes from speculators who are highly sensitive to funding costs and futures premiums."

“这种流动性因素在加密货币中至关重要，在加密货币中，大部分交易量来自对资金成本和期货保费高度敏感的投机者。”

Beyond the technical analysis of futures prices, the discount may also be a broader liquidity trend.

除了对期货价格的技术分析外，折扣还可能是更广泛的流动性趋势。

Institutional investors often use derivatives markets to hedge their cryptocurrency exposure, and a decline in short-term futures demand could indicate a temporary pullback in institutional participation as they adjust their hedging strategies.

机构投资者经常使用衍生品市场来对冲他们的加密货币风险，而短期期货需求的下降可能表明，随着他们调整对冲策略，机构参与的暂时回调。

Moreover, macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory factors are also impacting future market sentiment.

此外，宏观经济的不确定性和监管因素也会影响未来的市场情绪。

The U.S. crypto policy landscape is still evolving, with institutions awaiting clearer guidelines for broader institutional participation.

美国加密政策格局仍在不断发展，机构正在等待更清晰的准则，以进行更广泛的机构参与。

"There are still many unanswered questions regarding the future of crypto regulation, especially in the U.S.,” said Ben Rockwell, a crypto derivatives trader at TrueChain.

Truechain的加密衍生品交易员本·罗克韦尔（Ben Rockwell）说：“关于加密法规的未来，尤其是在美国，仍然存在许多未解决的问题。”

"This institutional caution is also evident in other asset classes, as investors are becoming more risk-averse due to persistent inflation, the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, and the anticipation of key economic data."

“在其他资产类别中，由于持续的通货膨胀，即将到来的美联储利率决策以及对关键经济数据的预期，这种机构的谨慎也很明显。”