特朗普上任后比特币、柴犬和佩佩币面临两大风险

加密货币本周开局良好，比特币价格两周多来首次飙升至 102,000 美元，恐惧和贪婪指数

Cryptocurrency prices soared on Monday, continuing a rally that saw Bitcoin briefly cross $102,000 for the first time in over two weeks. The fear and greed index also moved into the greed zone.

周一，加密货币价格飙升，比特币两周多以来首次短暂突破 102,000 美元。恐惧和贪婪指数也进入了贪婪区域。

However, these gains were wiped out on Tuesday as Bitcoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe and other coins crashed. Here are two potential risks that could further crash these coins.

然而，随着比特币、柴犬、佩佩和其他代币的崩盘，这些涨幅在周二被抹去。以下是两个可能导致这些代币进一步崩溃的潜在风险。

Soaring US Bond Yields

美国债券收益率飙升

The first major reason that could lead to more crypto downturn is the performance of the bond market. The chart below shows that the US 30-year, 10-year and 5-year Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels since October 2023.

可能导致加密货币进一步下滑的第一个主要原因是债券市场的表现。下图显示，美国30年期、10年期和5年期国债收益率已飙升至2023年10月以来的最高水平。

Data showed that the 30-year yield moved to 4.91% and could hit 5% this week. Meanwhile, the 10-year and 5-year yields soared to 4.68% and 4.46%. These increases are noteworthy because they come at a time when the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle.

数据显示，30年期国债收益率升至4.91%，本周可能触及5%。与此同时，10年期和5年期国债收益率飙升至4.68%和4.46%。这些增长值得注意，因为它们发生在美联储正处于降息周期之际。

The bank slashed rates by 1% last year and guided towards two more cuts this year. In theory, yields should fall when the Fed is cutting rates. Hence, their continued increase is a sign that the market believes the Fed may not cut rates as guided since inflation is no longer falling. Donald Trump's policies of tax cuts, mass deportations and tariffs will worsen the situation.

该银行去年降息 1%，并指导今年再降息两次。理论上，当美联储降息时，收益率应该下降。因此，它们的持续增长表明市场认为，由于通胀不再下降，美联储可能不会按照指导降息。唐纳德·特朗普的减税、大规模驱逐出境和关税政策将使局势进一步恶化。

I have argued that most asset markets appear overvalued, bordering on frothy. Stocks, corporate bonds, single family housing, crypto and gold quickly come to mind. But what could be the catalyst for them to selloff? How about a meaningful correction in the Treasury bond market.

我认为大多数资产市场似乎都被高估，接近泡沫。人们很快就会想到股票、公司债券、单户住宅、加密货币和黄金。但什么可能是他们抛售的催化剂呢？国债市场是否会出现有意义的调整？

Risky assets rarely do well when bond yields rise as capital tends to flow into money market funds, which have now clocked up over $6.8 trillion in assets.

当债券收益率上升时，风险资产很少表现良好，因为资本往往流入货币市场基金，目前货币市场基金的资产已超过 6.8 万亿美元。

Hence, the next few days will be crucial, as the Fed will also release minutes of its last meeting, and the US will also report December inflation and jobs data. Strong numbers will bolster the Fed's hawkish tone, putting more pressure on coins like Bitcoin, Shiba Inu and Pepe Coin.

因此，未来几天至关重要，美联储还将公布上次会议纪要，美国也将公布12月通胀和就业数据。强劲的数据将强化美联储的鹰派基调，给比特币、柴犬和佩佩币等加密货币带来更大压力。

Bitcoin, Shiba Inu and Pepe Coin SEC Risk

比特币、柴犬和佩佩币 SEC 风险

The other major risk these coins face is from the Securities and Exchange Commission. On paper, the incoming Trump administration is expected to be highly positive for the cryptocurrency industry.

这些代币面临的另一个主要风险来自证券交易委员会。从表面上看，即将上任的特朗普政府预计将对加密货币行业产生非常积极的影响。

Trump has already nominated Paul Atkins to be the next SEC Chair, David Sachs to lead a crypto and AI council and Howard Lutnick to head commerce. He is also close to Elon Musk, a key crypto supporter whose companies like Tesla and SpaceX own Bitcoin.

特朗普已提名保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 担任下一任 SEC 主席，提名大卫·萨克斯 (David Sachs) 领导加密货币和人工智能委员会，提名霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick) 领导商务。他还与埃隆·马斯克关系密切，埃隆·马斯克是加密货币的主要支持者，特斯拉和 SpaceX 等公司都拥有比特币。

The SEC is expected to maintain a light-touch approach to crypto regulation, which could spur animal spirits among investors in the industry.

预计美国证券交易委员会将维持对加密货币监管的宽松态度，这可能会激发该行业投资者的动物精神。

However, as The Atlantic put it, deregulating the crypto industry may create a bubble that will ultimately bust, hurting many investors.

然而，正如《大西洋月刊》所言，放松对加密货币行业的管制可能会产生泡沫，最终会破灭，从而伤害许多投资者。

The other risk is that Atkins' policies may hurt the industry if they fall short of expectations. For example, many cryptocurrency investors are expecting him to drop the Ripple appeal and approve several crypto ETFs. If he fails or delays, there is a chance that most coins will decline.

另一个风险是，阿特金斯的政策如果达不到预期，可能会损害该行业。例如，许多加密货币投资者预计他会放弃 Ripple 的吸引力并批准几只加密货币 ETF。如果他失败或拖延，大多数代币都有可能下跌。

On the bright side, history shows that cryptocurrencies tend to perform well irrespective of who is president. For example, Bitcoin just hit a record high despite anti-crypto Gary Gensler being the head of the SEC.

从好的一面来看，历史表明，无论谁当总统，加密货币往往都会表现良好。例如，尽管反加密货币的加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 担任 SEC 主席，但比特币还是创下了历史新高。