川普上任後比特幣、柴犬和佩佩幣面臨兩大風險

加密貨幣本週開局良好，比特幣價格兩週多以來首次飆升至 102,000 美元，恐懼和貪婪指數

Cryptocurrency prices soared on Monday, continuing a rally that saw Bitcoin briefly cross $102,000 for the first time in over two weeks. The fear and greed index also moved into the greed zone.

週一，加密貨幣價格飆升，比特幣兩週多來首次短暫突破 102,000 美元。恐懼和貪婪指數也進入了貪婪區域。

However, these gains were wiped out on Tuesday as Bitcoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe and other coins crashed. Here are two potential risks that could further crash these coins.

然而，隨著比特幣、柴犬、佩佩和其他代幣的崩盤，這些漲幅在周二被抹去。以下是兩個可能導致這些代幣進一步崩潰的潛在風險。

Soaring US Bond Yields

美國債券殖利率飆升

The first major reason that could lead to more crypto downturn is the performance of the bond market. The chart below shows that the US 30-year, 10-year and 5-year Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels since October 2023.

可能導致加密貨幣進一步下滑的第一個主要原因是債券市場的表現。下圖顯示，美國30年期、10年期和5年期公債殖利率已飆升至2023年10月以來的最高水準。

Data showed that the 30-year yield moved to 4.91% and could hit 5% this week. Meanwhile, the 10-year and 5-year yields soared to 4.68% and 4.46%. These increases are noteworthy because they come at a time when the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle.

數據顯示，30年期公債殖利率升至4.91%，本周可能觸及5%。同時，10年期和5年期公債殖利率飆升至4.68%和4.46%。這些成長值得注意，因為它們發生在聯準會正處於降息週期之際。

The bank slashed rates by 1% last year and guided towards two more cuts this year. In theory, yields should fall when the Fed is cutting rates. Hence, their continued increase is a sign that the market believes the Fed may not cut rates as guided since inflation is no longer falling. Donald Trump's policies of tax cuts, mass deportations and tariffs will worsen the situation.

該銀行去年降息 1%，並指導今年再降息兩次。理論上，當聯準會降息時，收益率應該會下降。因此，它們的持續成長表明市場認為，由於通膨不再下降，聯準會可能不會按照指導降息。唐納德·川普的減稅、大規模驅逐出境和關稅政策將使局勢進一步惡化。

I have argued that most asset markets appear overvalued, bordering on frothy. Stocks, corporate bonds, single family housing, crypto and gold quickly come to mind. But what could be the catalyst for them to selloff? How about a meaningful correction in the Treasury bond market.

我認為大多數資產市場似乎都被高估，接近泡沫。人們很快就會想到股票、公司債券、單戶住宅、加密貨幣和黃金。但什麼可能是他們拋售的催化劑呢？國債市場是否會出現有意義的調整？

Risky assets rarely do well when bond yields rise as capital tends to flow into money market funds, which have now clocked up over $6.8 trillion in assets.

當債券殖利率上升時，風險資產很少表現良好，因為資本往往流入貨幣市場基金，目前貨幣市場基金的資產已超過 6.8 兆美元。

Hence, the next few days will be crucial, as the Fed will also release minutes of its last meeting, and the US will also report December inflation and jobs data. Strong numbers will bolster the Fed's hawkish tone, putting more pressure on coins like Bitcoin, Shiba Inu and Pepe Coin.

因此，未來幾天至關重要，聯準會將公佈上次會議紀要，美國也將公佈12月通膨和就業數據。強勁的數據將強化聯準會的鷹派基調，對比特幣、柴犬和佩佩幣等加密貨幣造成更大壓力。

Bitcoin, Shiba Inu and Pepe Coin SEC Risk

比特幣、柴犬和佩佩幣 SEC 風險

The other major risk these coins face is from the Securities and Exchange Commission. On paper, the incoming Trump administration is expected to be highly positive for the cryptocurrency industry.

這些代幣面臨的另一個主要風險來自證券交易委員會。從表面上看，即將上任的川普政府預計將對加密貨幣產業產生非常積極的影響。

Trump has already nominated Paul Atkins to be the next SEC Chair, David Sachs to lead a crypto and AI council and Howard Lutnick to head commerce. He is also close to Elon Musk, a key crypto supporter whose companies like Tesla and SpaceX own Bitcoin.

川普已提名保羅·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins) 擔任下一任SEC 主席，提名大衛·薩克斯(David Sachs) 領導加密貨幣和人工智慧委員會，提名霍華德·盧特尼克(Howard Lutnick) 領導商務。他也與伊隆馬斯克關係密切，馬斯克是加密貨幣的主要支持者，特斯拉和 SpaceX 等公司都擁有比特幣。

The SEC is expected to maintain a light-touch approach to crypto regulation, which could spur animal spirits among investors in the industry.

預計美國證券交易委員會將維持對加密貨幣監管的寬鬆態度，這可能會激發該行業投資者的動物精神。

However, as The Atlantic put it, deregulating the crypto industry may create a bubble that will ultimately bust, hurting many investors.

然而，正如《大西洋月刊》所言，放鬆對加密貨幣產業的管制可能會產生泡沫，最終會破滅，從而傷害許多投資者。

The other risk is that Atkins' policies may hurt the industry if they fall short of expectations. For example, many cryptocurrency investors are expecting him to drop the Ripple appeal and approve several crypto ETFs. If he fails or delays, there is a chance that most coins will decline.

另一個風險是，阿特金斯的政策如果達不到預期，可能會損害這個產業。例如，許多加密貨幣投資者預計他會放棄 Ripple 的吸引力並批准幾個加密貨幣 ETF。如果他失敗或拖延，大多數代幣都有可能下跌。

On the bright side, history shows that cryptocurrencies tend to perform well irrespective of who is president. For example, Bitcoin just hit a record high despite anti-crypto Gary Gensler being the head of the SEC.

從好的一面來看，歷史表明，無論誰當總統，加密貨幣往往都會表現良好。例如，儘管反加密貨幣的加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 擔任 SEC 主席，但比特幣還是創下了歷史新高。