比特币的复苏：买还是卖？专家参与

比特币的价值一度暴跌，自 2022 年 11 月以来已上涨四倍。Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 预测，由于新 ETF 需求的增加和加密货币减半事件，比特币价格将飙升 5,600%。然而，众议员 Shri Thanedar 持有相反的观点，最近出售了他的比特币股份，并对加密货币和股票表示怀疑。

Bitcoin's Resurgence: Is It Time to Buy or Sell?

比特币的复苏：是时候买入还是卖出？

The cryptocurrency landscape has witnessed a remarkable resurgence of Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering digital asset that had faced a precipitous decline, losing over 70% of its value between November 2021 and November 2022. However, since then, Bitcoin has embarked on a remarkable recovery, nearly quadrupling in value, raising the question: Can Bitcoin sustain this momentum?

加密货币领域见证了比特币 (BTC) 的显着复苏，这种开创性的数字资产曾面临急剧下跌，在 2021 年 11 月至 2022 年 11 月期间损失了超过 70% 的价值。然而，从那时起，比特币开始了显着的复苏。复苏，价值几乎翻了两番，引发了一个问题：比特币能否维持这种势头？

Cathie Wood's Bitcoin Optimism

凯茜·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 对比特币的乐观态度

Cathie Wood, the visionary founder of Ark Invest, is among those who believe in Bitcoin's continued ascent. She boldly predicts that the cryptocurrency could soar by more than 5,600%, a staggering affirmation of her bullish outlook. This optimism stems from several factors.

Ark Invest 富有远见的创始人 Cathie Wood 是相信比特币持续上涨的人之一。她大胆预测加密货币可能会飙升 5,600% 以上，这令人震惊地证实了她的乐观前景。这种乐观情绪源于几个因素。

Firstly, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2024 has significantly boosted demand for Bitcoin. Ark Invest, one of the eleven investment firms granted approval, now offers several Bitcoin-focused ETFs, attracting substantial capital inflows. Wood believes that this institutional endorsement will pave the way for wider adoption, with institutional investors allocating a significant portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, potentially driving its price to a staggering $3.8 million, according to Ark Invest's analysis.

首先，2024年美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），显着提振了比特币的需求。 Ark Invest 是获得批准的 11 家投资公司之一，目前提供多种以比特币为重点的 ETF，吸引了大量资本流入。根据 Ark Invest 的分析，伍德认为，这种机构认可将为更广泛的采用铺平道路，机构投资者将其投资组合的很大一部分分配给比特币，有可能将其价格推至惊人的 380 万美元。

Additionally, Wood places great significance on Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years. During these events, the reward for mining Bitcoin is halved, reducing the supply of new coins entering circulation. Wood anticipates that the halving that occurred on April 19, 2024, will serve as a major catalyst for Bitcoin's price appreciation, similar to the rallies witnessed after previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

此外，伍德对大约每四年发生一次的比特币减半事件非常重视。在这些事件期间，开采比特币的奖励减半，从而减少了进入流通的新硬币的供应。伍德预计，2024 年 4 月 19 日发生的减半将成为比特币价格上涨的主要催化剂，类似于 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年减半后出现的反弹。

Countervailing Perspective: Congressman Shri Thanedar's Skepticism

反补贴观点：国会议员 Shri Thanedar 的怀疑论

Notwithstanding Wood's bullish outlook, Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) holds a contrasting view of Bitcoin. The congressman recently liquidated his Bitcoin holdings, expressing concerns about the cryptocurrency's viability. Thanedar's skepticism extends beyond Bitcoin; he has also significantly reduced his stakes in Ethereum and Litecoin, signaling a broader bearish sentiment toward cryptocurrencies in general.

尽管伍德对比特币前景持乐观态度，但众议员 Shri Thanedar（密歇根州民主党人）对比特币持有相反的看法。这位国会议员最近清算了他所持有的比特币，表达了对加密货币生存能力的担忧。塞尼达尔的怀疑不仅仅局限于比特币。他还大幅减少了以太坊和莱特币的持股，这表明人们普遍对加密货币持悲观情绪。

Thanedar's concerns are echoed by legendary investor Warren Buffett, who has famously derided Bitcoin as "rat poison squared," arguing that it lacks intrinsic value. However, this argument could equally apply to gold, which has been a popular investment for centuries despite its lack of intrinsic value.

传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特也表达了塞尼达尔的担忧，巴菲特曾嘲笑比特币是“老鼠药的平方”，认为比特币缺乏内在价值。然而，这一论点同样适用于黄金，尽管黄金缺乏内在价值，但几个世纪以来它一直是一种受欢迎的投资。

A Balanced Perspective: Between Optimism and Caution

平衡的观点：乐观与谨慎之间

While Wood's bullish predictions and Thanedar's skepticism present contrasting viewpoints, a balanced perspective is warranted. It is unlikely that institutional investors will allocate 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin in the near future, and the halving event has yet to spark a significant rally.

虽然伍德的乐观预测和塞尼达尔的怀疑态度呈现出截然不同的观点，但平衡的观点是有必要的。机构投资者不太可能在不久的将来将其投资组合的 5% 分配给比特币，而且减半事件尚未引发大幅反弹。

On the other hand, dismissing Bitcoin entirely may be shortsighted. Its value remains largely driven by market sentiment, offering the potential for significant appreciation or depreciation. Investors should approach Bitcoin with caution, recognizing both its potential and risks, and carefully consider their investment strategies.

另一方面，完全否定比特币可能是短视的。其价值仍然主要由市场情绪驱动，提供大幅升值或贬值的潜力。投资者应谨慎对待比特币，认识到其潜力和风险，并仔细考虑其投资策略。

Ultimately, the decision of whether to buy or sell Bitcoin is a personal one. Investors should conduct thorough research, understand the risks involved, and make informed decisions based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

最终，是否购买或出售比特币的决定是个人决定。投资者应充分研究，了解所涉及的风险，并根据个人情况和风险承受能力做出明智的决定。