范埃克表示，比特币储备可以显着减少美国国债

资产管理公司 VanEck 建议美国可以通过建立比特币储备来大幅减少其国债

Asset management firm VanEck has proposed that the United States could significantly reduce its national debt by establishing a Bitcoin reserve, in line with a bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis.

资产管理公司 VanEck 提议，根据参议员 Cynthia Lummis 提出的法案，美国可以通过建立比特币储备来大幅减少国家债务。

The firm’s analysis predicts that Bitcoin’s value could reach $42.3 million per coin by 2049, creating an opportunity for the U.S. to offset $42 trillion in liabilities.

该公司的分析预测，到 2049 年，比特币的价值可能达到每枚 4230 万美元，为美国创造抵消 42 万亿美元负债的机会。

Bitcoin’s Potential Economic Impact

比特币的潜在经济影响

VanEck’s estimate assumes Bitcoin’s price will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, starting from a hypothetical $200,000 valuation in 2025. With Bitcoin currently trading at around $95,360, this would require a more than twofold increase in the cryptocurrency’s value to align with the firm’s projections.

VanEck 的估计假设，从 2025 年假设的 20 万美元估值开始，比特币的价格将以 25% 的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 增长。鉴于比特币目前的交易价格约为 95,360 美元，这需要加密货币的价值增加两倍以上才能实现。与公司的预测一致。

By 2049, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could represent 18% of global financial assets, compared to its current 0.22% share of the $900 trillion market. If these projections hold true, a 1-million-bitcoin reserve could reduce the national debt by 35%, bringing down liabilities from a projected $119.3 trillion to $77.3 trillion.

到 2049 年，比特币的市值可能占全球金融资产的 18%，而目前其在 900 万亿美元市场中的份额仅为 0.22%。如果这些预测成立，100 万比特币储备可以将国家债务减少 35%，将负债从预计的 119.3 万亿美元减少到 77.3 万亿美元。

Under Senator Lummis’ proposed legislation, the U.S. government could allocate its existing 198,100 Bitcoin, acquired through asset seizures, towards the reserve. The remaining 801,900 Bitcoin needed could be financed through a combination of selling gold reserves, currently valued at $455 billion, or leveraging Emergency Support Functions. This strategy would avoid reliance on money printing or taxpayer funds, according to VanEck’s report.

根据 Lummis 参议员提议的立法，美国政府可以将通过资产扣押获得的现有 198,100 比特币分配给储备金。所需的剩余 801,900 比特币可以通过出售目前价值 4550 亿美元的黄金储备或利用紧急支持功能来筹集资金。范埃克的报告称，这一策略将避免对印钞或纳税人资金的依赖。

Global Implications and Market Trends

全球影响和市场趋势

VanEck highlighted potential influences on Bitcoin’s adoption at both domestic and international levels. Increased adoption by U.S. institutions and corporations could drive the value of cryptocurrency, as could actions by the BRICS nations. The alliance’s exploration of Bitcoin as a settlement currency for global trade could further impact its price trajectory.

VanEck 强调了比特币在国内和国际层面采用的潜在影响。美国机构和企业的更多采用可能会推动加密货币的价值，金砖国家的行动也可能如此。该联盟对比特币作为全球贸易结算货币的探索可能会进一步影响其价格轨迹。

At the same time, speculation about the new U.S. government administration’s policy on Bitcoin has also energized the market. Apparently, during Donald Trump’s presidency, Bitcoin was planned to be proclaimed a reserve currency right at the executive order level, which is in line with Lummis’s plans

与此同时，有关美国新政府对比特币政策的猜测也给市场注入了活力。显然，在唐纳德·特朗普担任总统期间，计划在行政命令层面宣布比特币为储备货币，这与 Lummis 的计划是一致的

VanEck’s outlook is based on an optimistic scenario where Bitcoin achieves sustained growth amid increasing adoption. While the targets set are reasonably aggressive, the company concedes that there are still great barriers to overcome, such as the rate of regulatory discretion available and market concentration.

VanEck 的前景基于乐观的情景，即比特币随着采用率的不断提高而实现持续增长。尽管设定的目标相当激进，但该公司承认仍有很大障碍需要克服，例如监管自由裁量权的比例和市场集中度。

Once these obstacles are more or less conquered, the use of Bitcoin as a reserve asset should be a crucial milestone for the United States national debt management, and, on the other hand, it should completely alter the economic order of the whole world.

一旦这些障碍或多或少被克服，使用比特币作为储备资产应该成为美国国债管理的一个重要里程碑，另一方面，它也应该彻底改变整个世界的经济秩序。