比特币的价格轨迹再次捕捉头条新闻

比特币的价格轨迹再次成为头条新闻，这次催化剂似乎是重塑投资者情绪的全球流动性趋势。

The last time we spoke, we were discussing how the S&P 500 can be used to predict Bitcoin price. In a recent analysis for Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Lead Analyst Matt Crosby continues his exploration of macro indicators impacting crypto. This time, he presents a compelling case for global liquidity trends as a key driver of Bitcoin price.

我们上次讲话时，我们正在讨论如何使用标准普尔500指数来预测比特币价格。在最近对比特币杂志Pro的分析中，首席分析师马特·克罗斯比（Matt Crosby）继续探索影响加密的宏观指标。这次，他为全球流动性趋势提出了一个令人信服的案例，这是比特币价格的关键驱动力。

Crosby’s analysis, which is available in full on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, showcases a remarkable and consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity levels.

克罗斯比（Crosby）的分析（Bitcoin Magazine Pro）已全面提供，它展示了一个显着且一致的相关性 - 通常超过比特币价格与全球M2流动性水平之间的84％。

As liquidity increases across the global economy, which is measured by the M2 money supply, Bitcoin price typically responds with upward movement, although there is a noticeable delay. Historical data from 2011 to 2024 supports the observation of a 56–60 day lag between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price increases.

随着通过M2货币供应衡量的全球经济的流动性增加，比特币价格通常会随着向上的发展做出响应，尽管有明显的延迟。从2011年到2024年，历史数据支持观察到货币上涨与比特币价格上涨之间的56-60天滞后。

This insight has recently proven accurate, as Bitcoin price has rebounded from lows of $75,000 to above $85,000. This trend aligns closely with the forecasted recovery that Crosby and his team at Bitcoin Magazine Pro had outlined based on macro indicators, validating the strength and reliability of the correlation driving Bitcoin price upward.

最近，这种见解已证明是准确的，因为比特币价格从75,000美元的低点反弹到85,000美元以上。这一趋势与Crosby和他的Bitcoin Magazine Pro的团队根据宏指标概述的预测恢复紧密吻合，从而验证了相关性的强度和可靠性，使比特币价格上涨。

Why A 2-Month Delay Impacts Bitcoin Price

为什么2个月的延迟会影响比特币价格

The two-month delay is a critical observation for understanding Bitcoin price movements. Crosby explains that monetary policy and liquidity injections do not immediately affect speculative assets like BTC. Instead, there is an incubation period, typically around two months, during which liquidity filters through financial systems and begins to influence Bitcoin price.

两个月的延迟是了解比特币价格变动的关键观察。克罗斯比解释说，货币政策和流动性注射不会立即影响像BTC这样的投机资产。取而代之的是，有一个孵化期，通常在两个月左右，在此期间通过金融系统过滤，并开始影响比特币价格。

Crosby has further optimized this correlation through various backtests, adjusting timeframes and offsets to identify the variant yielding the highest predictive accuracy. Their findings, which are accessible on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, indicate that a 60-day lag from the M2 liquidity time series to Bitcoin price time series yields the strongest correlation, both for short-term (1-year) and extended (4-year) historical periods.

Crosby通过各种反测试进一步优化了这种相关性，调整了时间表和偏移，以识别产生最高预测精度的变体。他们的发现可以在比特币杂志Pro上访问，这表明从M2流动性时间序列到比特币价格时间序列的60天滞后都会产生最强的相关性，包括短期（1年）和延长（4年）历史时期。

This lag provides a strategic advantage to investors who are adept at monitoring macro trends to anticipate Bitcoin price surges.

这一滞后为善于监视宏观趋势以预测比特币价格飙升的投资者提供了战略优势。

S&P 500 and Its Impact on Bitcoin Price Trends

标普500及其对比特币价格趋势的影响

Adding further credibility to the thesis, Crosby extends his analysis to traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 exhibits an even stronger all-time correlation of approximately 92% with global liquidity. This finding reinforces the broader narrative that monetary expansion is a significant factor driving not just Bitcoin price but also broader risk-on asset classes.

克罗斯比（Crosby）将其分析扩展到传统股票市场。标准普尔500指数与全球流动性约为92％的历史相关性。这一发现加强了更广泛的叙述，即货币扩张是推动比特币价格的重要因素，而且是更广泛的风险资产类别。

By comparing liquidity trends with multiple indices, including the S&P 500 and Bitcoin price, Crosby demonstrates that the digital asset is not an anomaly but part of a broader systemic pattern. When liquidity rises, equities and digital assets alike tend to benefit, positioning M2 supply as an essential indicator for timing market movements.

通过将流动性趋势与包括标准普尔500指数和比特币价格在内的多个指数进行比较，Crosby表明，数字资产不是异常，而是更广泛的系统性模式的一部分。当流动性上升时，股票和数字资产往往会受益，将M2供应定位为定时市场转移的必要指标。

Predicting Bitcoin Price to $108,000 by June 2025

预计比特币价格为2025年6月

To adopt a future-oriented perspective, Crosby employs historical fractals from previous bull markets to project future Bitcoin price movements. When these patterns are overlaid with current macro data, the model suggests a scenario where Bitcoin price could retest and potentially surpass its all-time highs, targeting $108,000 by June 2025.

为了采用以未来为导向的观点，克罗斯比采用了以前的牛市的历史分形来投射未来的比特币价格变动。当这些模式被当前的宏观数据覆盖时，该模型表明比特币价格可以重新测试并可能超过其历史最高点，到2025年6月的目标是108,000美元。

This optimistic projection hinges on the assumption that global liquidity continues its upward trajectory. Recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest that further monetary stimulus could be deployed if market stability falters—another factor that bodes well for Bitcoin price growth in the broader context.

这种乐观的投影取决于全球流动性继续其向上轨迹的假设。美联储的最新声明表明，如果市场稳定性失败，这是在更广泛的背景下对比特币价格增长良好的另一个因素，则可以部署进一步的货币刺激。

The Rate Of Expansion Matters For Bitcoin Price

扩张速度与比特币价格有关

While increasing liquidity levels are significant, Crosby highlights the importance of monitoring the rate of liquidity expansion to predict Bitcoin price trends. The year-on-year M2 growth rate offers a more nuanced view of macroeconomic momentum.

虽然增加的流动性水平显着，但克罗斯比强调了监测流动性扩大以预测比特币价格趋势的重要性。同比的M2增长率为宏观经济势头提供了更细微的看法。

Although liquidity has generally been expanding, the pace of expansion had slowed temporarily before resuming an upward trend in recent months. This observation is crucial.

尽管流动性通常一直在扩大，但在最近几个月恢复上升趋势之前，暂时的扩张速度暂时放缓。这种观察至关重要。

This trend is strikingly similar to conditions observed in early 2017, just before Bitcoin price entered an exponential growth phase, which aligns with the observations made by Crosby and his team at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. The parallels only serve to reinforce their bullish outlook on Bitcoin price and emphasize the importance of dynamic, rather than static, macro analysis.

这种趋势与2017年初观察到的条件非常相似，就在比特币价格进入指数增长阶段之前，这与克罗斯比（Crosby）及其团队在比特币杂志Pro的观察结果相吻合。这些相似之处只是为了增强其对比特币价格的看涨前景，并强调动态而不是静态宏分析的重要性。

Final Thoughts: Preparing For The Next Bitcoin Price Phase

最终想法：准备下一个比特币价格阶段

Potential risks such as a global recession or a significant equity market correction could alter this outlook. However, considering the broader context and the strength of the correlations observed, current macro indicators appear to be presenting a favorable environment for Bitcoin price.

诸如全球衰退或重大股票市场校正之类的潜在风险可能会改变这种前景。但是，考虑到观察到的相关性的更广泛的背景和强度，当前的宏观指标似乎在比特币价格中提出了一个有利的环境。

Crosby’s data-driven approach offers investors a strategic lens to interpret and navigate the market. For those seeking to make informed decisions in a volatile environment, these insights provide actionable intelligence grounded in economic fundamentals to capitalize on cryptocurrency opportunities.

克罗斯比（Crosby）的数据驱动方法为投资者提供了一种战略性镜头来解释和浏览市场。对于那些寻求在动荡的环境中做出明智决定的人来说，这些见解提供了以经济基础为基础的可行的情报，以利用加密货币机会。

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

有关更深入的研究，技术指标，实时市场警报以及访问不断增长的分析师社区的访问，请访问Bitcoinmagazinepro.com。