比特幣的價格軌跡再次捕捉頭條新聞

比特幣的價格軌跡再次成為頭條新聞，這次催化劑似乎是重塑投資者情緒的全球流動性趨勢。

The last time we spoke, we were discussing how the S&P 500 can be used to predict Bitcoin price. In a recent analysis for Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Lead Analyst Matt Crosby continues his exploration of macro indicators impacting crypto. This time, he presents a compelling case for global liquidity trends as a key driver of Bitcoin price.

我們上次講話時，我們正在討論如何使用標準普爾500指數來預測比特幣價格。在最近對比特幣雜誌Pro的分析中，首席分析師馬特·克羅斯比（Matt Crosby）繼續探索影響加密的宏觀指標。這次，他為全球流動性趨勢提出了一個令人信服的案例，這是比特幣價格的關鍵驅動力。

Crosby’s analysis, which is available in full on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, showcases a remarkable and consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity levels.

克羅斯比（Crosby）的分析（Bitcoin Magazine Pro）已全面提供，它展示了一個顯著且一致的相關性 - 通常超過比特幣價格與全球M2流動性水平之間的84％。

As liquidity increases across the global economy, which is measured by the M2 money supply, Bitcoin price typically responds with upward movement, although there is a noticeable delay. Historical data from 2011 to 2024 supports the observation of a 56–60 day lag between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price increases.

隨著通過M2貨幣供應衡量的全球經濟的流動性增加，比特幣價格通常會隨著向上的發展做出響應，儘管有明顯的延遲。從2011年到2024年，歷史數據支持觀察到貨幣上漲與比特幣價格上漲之間的56-60天滯後。

This insight has recently proven accurate, as Bitcoin price has rebounded from lows of $75,000 to above $85,000. This trend aligns closely with the forecasted recovery that Crosby and his team at Bitcoin Magazine Pro had outlined based on macro indicators, validating the strength and reliability of the correlation driving Bitcoin price upward.

最近，這種見解已證明是準確的，因為比特幣價格從75,000美元的低點反彈到85,000美元以上。這一趨勢與Crosby和他的Bitcoin Magazine Pro的團隊根據宏指標概述的預測恢復緊密吻合，從而驗證了相關性的強度和可靠性，使比特幣價格上漲。

Why A 2-Month Delay Impacts Bitcoin Price

為什麼2個月的延遲會影響比特幣價格

The two-month delay is a critical observation for understanding Bitcoin price movements. Crosby explains that monetary policy and liquidity injections do not immediately affect speculative assets like BTC. Instead, there is an incubation period, typically around two months, during which liquidity filters through financial systems and begins to influence Bitcoin price.

兩個月的延遲是了解比特幣價格變動的關鍵觀察。克羅斯比解釋說，貨幣政策和流動性注射不會立即影響像BTC這樣的投機資產。取而代之的是，有一個孵化期，通常在兩個月左右，在此期間通過金融系統過濾，並開始影響比特幣價格。

Crosby has further optimized this correlation through various backtests, adjusting timeframes and offsets to identify the variant yielding the highest predictive accuracy. Their findings, which are accessible on Bitcoin Magazine Pro, indicate that a 60-day lag from the M2 liquidity time series to Bitcoin price time series yields the strongest correlation, both for short-term (1-year) and extended (4-year) historical periods.

Crosby通過各種反測試進一步優化了這種相關性，調整了時間表和偏移，以識別產生最高預測精度的變體。他們的發現可以在比特幣雜誌Pro上訪問，這表明從M2流動性時間序列到比特幣價格時間序列的60天滯後都會產生最強的相關性，包括短期（1年）和延長（4年）歷史時期。

This lag provides a strategic advantage to investors who are adept at monitoring macro trends to anticipate Bitcoin price surges.

這一滯後為善於監視宏觀趨勢以預測比特幣價格飆升的投資者提供了戰略優勢。

S&P 500 and Its Impact on Bitcoin Price Trends

標普500及其對比特幣價格趨勢的影響

Adding further credibility to the thesis, Crosby extends his analysis to traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 exhibits an even stronger all-time correlation of approximately 92% with global liquidity. This finding reinforces the broader narrative that monetary expansion is a significant factor driving not just Bitcoin price but also broader risk-on asset classes.

克羅斯比（Crosby）將其分析擴展到傳統股票市場。標準普爾500指數與全球流動性約為92％的歷史相關性。這一發現加強了更廣泛的敘述，即貨幣擴張是推動比特幣價格的重要因素，而且是更廣泛的風險資產類別。

By comparing liquidity trends with multiple indices, including the S&P 500 and Bitcoin price, Crosby demonstrates that the digital asset is not an anomaly but part of a broader systemic pattern. When liquidity rises, equities and digital assets alike tend to benefit, positioning M2 supply as an essential indicator for timing market movements.

通過將流動性趨勢與包括標準普爾500指數和比特幣價格在內的多個指數進行比較，Crosby表明，數字資產不是異常，而是更廣泛的系統性模式的一部分。當流動性上升時，股票和數字資產往往會受益，將M2供應定位為定時市場轉移的必要指標。

Predicting Bitcoin Price to $108,000 by June 2025

預計比特幣價格為2025年6月

To adopt a future-oriented perspective, Crosby employs historical fractals from previous bull markets to project future Bitcoin price movements. When these patterns are overlaid with current macro data, the model suggests a scenario where Bitcoin price could retest and potentially surpass its all-time highs, targeting $108,000 by June 2025.

為了採用以未來為導向的觀點，克羅斯比採用了以前的牛市的歷史分形來投射未來的比特幣價格變動。當這些模式被當前的宏觀數據覆蓋時，該模型表明比特幣價格可以重新測試並可能超過其歷史最高點，到2025年6月的目標是108,000美元。

This optimistic projection hinges on the assumption that global liquidity continues its upward trajectory. Recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest that further monetary stimulus could be deployed if market stability falters—another factor that bodes well for Bitcoin price growth in the broader context.

這種樂觀的投影取決於全球流動性繼續其向上軌蹟的假設。美聯儲的最新聲明表明，如果市場穩定性失敗，這是在更廣泛的背景下對比特幣價格增長良好的另一個因素，則可以部署進一步的貨幣刺激。

The Rate Of Expansion Matters For Bitcoin Price

擴張速度與比特幣價格有關

While increasing liquidity levels are significant, Crosby highlights the importance of monitoring the rate of liquidity expansion to predict Bitcoin price trends. The year-on-year M2 growth rate offers a more nuanced view of macroeconomic momentum.

雖然增加的流動性水平顯著，但克羅斯比強調了監測流動性擴大以預測比特幣價格趨勢的重要性。同比的M2增長率為宏觀經濟勢頭提供了更細微的看法。

Although liquidity has generally been expanding, the pace of expansion had slowed temporarily before resuming an upward trend in recent months. This observation is crucial.

儘管流動性通常一直在擴大，但在最近幾個月恢復上升趨勢之前，暫時的擴張速度暫時放緩。這種觀察至關重要。

This trend is strikingly similar to conditions observed in early 2017, just before Bitcoin price entered an exponential growth phase, which aligns with the observations made by Crosby and his team at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. The parallels only serve to reinforce their bullish outlook on Bitcoin price and emphasize the importance of dynamic, rather than static, macro analysis.

這種趨勢與2017年初觀察到的條件非常相似，就在比特幣價格進入指數增長階段之前，這與克羅斯比（Crosby）及其團隊在比特幣雜誌Pro的觀察結果相吻合。這些相似之處只是為了增強其對比特幣價格的看漲前景，並強調動態而不是靜態宏分析的重要性。

Final Thoughts: Preparing For The Next Bitcoin Price Phase

最終想法：準備下一個比特幣價格階段

Potential risks such as a global recession or a significant equity market correction could alter this outlook. However, considering the broader context and the strength of the correlations observed, current macro indicators appear to be presenting a favorable environment for Bitcoin price.

諸如全球衰退或重大股票市場校正之類的潛在風險可能會改變這種前景。但是，考慮到觀察到的相關性的更廣泛的背景和強度，當前的宏觀指標似乎在比特幣價格中提出了一個有利的環境。

Crosby’s data-driven approach offers investors a strategic lens to interpret and navigate the market. For those seeking to make informed decisions in a volatile environment, these insights provide actionable intelligence grounded in economic fundamentals to capitalize on cryptocurrency opportunities.

克羅斯比（Crosby）的數據驅動方法為投資者提供了一種戰略性鏡頭來解釋和瀏覽市場。對於那些尋求在動蕩的環境中做出明智決定的人來說，這些見解提供了以經濟基礎為基礎的可行的情報，以利用加密貨幣機會。

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

有關更深入的研究，技術指標，實時市場警報以及訪問不斷增長的分析師社區的訪問，請訪問Bitcoinmagazinepro.com。