比特币价格稳定，减半后山寨币可能被挤空

减半事件发生后，比特币价格在触及 64,926.64 美元高点后稳定在 66,500 美元左右。 QCP Capital 的减半后分析显示，融资利率有所下降，表明有可能出现轧空，尤其是山寨币和 meme 币，这表明如果风险偏好回归，价格将会上涨。

Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Stabilizes, Short Squeeze Potential Emerges

减半后比特币价格企稳，挤空潜力显现

Following the recent halving event, Bitcoin's price has been attempting to stabilize after reaching a high of $64,926.64 over the weekend. As of today, it has slightly increased to approximately $66,500. A recent market update from crypto hedge fund QCP Capital offers valuable insights into the post-halving scenario and the broader cryptocurrency market.

在最近的减半事件之后，比特币的价格在周末达到 64,926.64 美元的高点后一直试图稳定下来。截至今天，它已略有增加至约 66,500 美元。加密货币对冲基金 QCP Capital 最近的市场更新为减半后的情况和更广泛的加密货币市场提供了宝贵的见解。

Observations Post-Halving

减半后的观察

QCP Capital notes that while funding rates have moderated from their previous highs, some smaller cryptocurrencies are experiencing deeply negative rates. This negative trend indicates the potential for a short squeeze, particularly in altcoins and meme coins. Should risk appetite return, negative funding rates could lead to upward price movements.

QCP Capital 指出，虽然融资利率已从之前的高位回落，但一些较小的加密货币正在经历严重的负利率。这种负面趋势表明有可能出现轧空，尤其是山寨币和模因币。如果风险偏好回归，负融资利率可能导致价格上涨。

Potential Short Squeeze

潜在的轧空

Historical data suggests that Bitcoin tends to experience a surge in price 50-100 days post-halving. This trend presents an opportunity for bullish investors to build long positions in anticipation of a potential rally. Additionally, QCP Capital anticipates a short squeeze in the near term, driven by altcoins and meme coins with negative funding rates.

历史数据表明，比特币往往会在减半后 50-100 天出现价格飙升。这种趋势为看涨投资者提供了一个机会，可以在预期潜在反弹的情况下建立多头头寸。此外，QCP Capital 预计，在山寨币和模因币的融资利率为负的推动下，短期内会出现轧空。

Ethereum's Improved Sentiment

以太坊情绪改善

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is showing signs of improved speculative sentiment. Its risk reversals, which measure the market's perception of future volatility, have been rising, indicating increasing optimism.

按市值计算的第二大加密货币以太坊正显示出投机情绪改善的迹象。衡量市场对未来波动性看法的风险逆转一直在上升，表明乐观情绪不断增强。

Mixed Signals for Bitcoin

比特币的混合信号

Technical indicators for Bitcoin present mixed signals regarding price direction. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) suggest buying sentiment, while Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate short-term bearishness. Key support levels for Bitcoin are identified at $62,467, $53,650, and $39,169, which will provide insights into buying interest and potential price movements.

比特币的技术指标呈现出有关价格方向的混合信号。指数移动平均线（EMA）和简单移动平均线（SMA）表明买入情绪，而相对强弱指数（RSI）和移动平均收敛分歧（MACD）则表明短期看跌。比特币的关键支撑位确定为 62,467 美元、53,650 美元和 39,169 美元，这将提供有关购买兴趣和潜在价格变动的见解。

Expert Opinions

专家意见

QCP Capital recommends bullish BTC positions using Extended Range Knockouts (ERKOs) for trading, citing attractive risk-reward ratios for long-term investors. They suggest purchasing BTC at a discount of around $55,000, anticipating a surge post-halving.

QCP Capital 建议使用扩展范围淘汰赛 (ERKO) 进行看涨 BTC 头寸进行交易，理由是对长期投资者具有吸引力的风险回报率。他们建议以 55,000 美元左右的折扣购买 BTC，预计减半后价格将飙升。

However, experts like Markus Thielen of 10x Research advise caution, foreseeing potential market weakness and a deeper correction in the coming months. Despite these bearish predictions, historical patterns post-halving indicate an exponential rise in Bitcoin's price, providing hope for optimistic investors.

然而，10x Research 的马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 等专家建议谨慎行事，他们预计未来几个月市场可能疲软，并出现更深层次的调整。尽管有这些悲观的预测，但减半后的历史模式表明比特币价格呈指数级上涨，为乐观的投资者带来了希望。

Market Outlook

市场展望

The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and Bitcoin's price is subject to significant volatility. While the post-halving period presents opportunities for bullish investors, it is essential to approach trading with caution and to monitor market conditions closely. Traders are advised to conduct thorough research and to consider the opinions of experts before making any investment decisions.

加密货币市场不断发展，比特币的价格波动很大。虽然减半后的时期为看涨投资者提供了机会，但谨慎交易并密切监控市场状况至关重要。建议交易者在做出任何投资决定之前进行彻底的研究并考虑专家的意见。