2025 年比特币价格预测：特朗普效应

2024 年对于比特币来说是独一无二的一年，加密货币的长期生存能力和采用率不断跨越重要里程碑

2024 has been a year like no other for Bitcoin, with major milestones for the cryptocurrency’s long-term viability and adoption being crossed consistently throughout the year.

对于比特币来说，2024 年是与众不同的一年，这一加密货币的长期生存能力和采用率在这一年中不断跨越重要里程碑。

January saw SEC approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs finally bringing the world’s most famous digital currency to Wall Street, driving BTC to a fresh all-time high of almost $73,100 in the first quarter.

1 月份，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准现货比特币 ETF，最终将世界上最著名的数字货币带入华尔街，推动 BTC 在第一季度创下近 73,100 美元的历史新高。

One month later, Bitcoin’s fourth halving event occurred, a pre-programmed process that occurs every four years to actively halve the distribution of BTC to the coin’s miners as part of its proof-of-work (PoW) protocol.

一个月后，比特币第四次减半事件发生了，这是一个每四年发生一次的预编程过程，作为其工作量证明 (PoW) 协议的一部分，主动将 BTC 分配给比特币矿工减半。

Halving events are bullish because they double Bitcoin’s scarcity overnight, slowing down their distribution in the process. Each year following a halving event, BTC has broken new ground in steep price rallies towards all-time highs.

减半事件是看涨的，因为它们在一夜之间使比特币的稀缺性增加了一倍，并在此过程中减慢了其分配速度。每年减半事件发生后，比特币都会在价格急剧上涨中开辟新天地，并创下历史新高。

The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the coin’s pre-programmed halving event meant that analysts and enthusiasts alike anticipated a major bull market arriving in late 2024 and early 2025, but the resounding US election victory for Donald Trump, a candidate who spoke of Bitcoin at length on the campaign trail, be the catalyst to push the cryptocurrency higher than previously imagined.

现货比特币 ETF 的批准以及比特币预先计划的减半事件意味着分析师和爱好者都预计重大牛市将在 2024 年底和 2025 年初到来，但唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在美国大选中取得了压倒性的胜利，他是一位在竞选活动的长度，成为将加密货币推向比之前想象更高的催化剂。

Is Bitcoin’s Trump bump set to be sustained over the coming months? Let’s take a deeper look at what to expect in 2025 for the answers:

未来几个月比特币的特朗普上涨是否会持续？让我们更深入地了解一下 2025 年的答案：

Learning From Stock-to-Flow

从库存到流量的学习

In a famously volatile and sentiment-driven cryptocurrency landscape that rarely follows patterns, stock-to-flow has remained one of the only consistent metrics for charting future price movements for Bitcoin.

在一个众所周知的波动性和情绪驱动的加密货币环境中，很少遵循模式，库存流通量仍然是绘制比特币未来价格走势的唯一一致指标之一。

In a nutshell, stock-to-flow helps to measure how scarce a commodity is, and is calculated by taking the existing amount of the commodity (the stock) and dividing it by the additional volume of the commodity produced over the year (the flow).

简而言之，库存流量比有助于衡量商品的稀缺程度，其计算方法是将商品的现有数量（库存）除以一年中生产的商品的额外数量（流量） ）。

This model indicates that the higher margins of existing stock compared to the new flow being produced creates a higher stock-to-flow, and helps to underline one of Bitcoin’s core mechanisms.

该模型表明，与正在产生的新流量相比，现有库存的利润率较高，从而创造了更高的库存流量比，并有助于强调比特币的核心机制之一。

First created by pseudonymous Twitter user PlanB, S2F has loosely followed Bitcoin’s past price rallies with considerable accuracy, and with halving events cutting the flow of new BTC produced by 50% every four years, its stock-to-flow model always factors in a significant bull market which will conclude in 2025.

S2F 最初由匿名 Twitter 用户 PlanB 创建，它以相当准确的方式松散地跟踪了比特币过去的价格上涨，并且随着减半事件每四年将新产生的 BTC 流量减少 50%，其存量流量模型总是将显着的影响因素考虑在内。牛市将于2025年结束。

But how high does this mean Bitcoin will go next year? Different models have drawn wildly different but consistently sky-high conclusions. PlanB suggests that Bitcoin can peak at $500,000 in 2025, while models from the likes of Glassnode, Newhedge, and Bitbo have all charted rallies in excess of $1,000,000 between spring and summer next year.

但这意味着比特币明年会涨到多高？不同的模型得出了截然不同但始终很高的结论。 PlanB 表示，比特币可能会在 2025 年达到 50 万美元的峰值，而 Glassnode、Newhedge 和 Bitbo 等公司的模型都绘制了明年春季和夏季期间超过 1,000,000 美元的涨幅。

More ‘conservative’ estimates from Bitcoin Magazine and Coinglass have BTC peaking at around $410,000 by April as part of their respective S2F models.

《比特币杂志》和 Coinglass 的更为“保守”的估计是，作为各自 S2F 模型的一部分，BTC 到 4 月份将达到 41 万美元左右的峰值。

Inconsistencies With S2F

与 S2F 的不一致

One key problem with the accuracy of stock-to-flow models is that Bitcoin’s peak prices at the conclusion of a bull run are typically followed by deep pullbacks that result in ‘crypto winter’, a period of consistent slow or negative growth that can see the asset fall dramatically from its all-time high values.

库存流量模型准确性的一个关键问题是，比特币在牛市结束时的峰值价格通常会出现大幅回调，从而导致“加密货币冬天”，这是一段持续缓慢或负增长的时期，可能会导致比特币价格持续缓慢或负增长。该资产从其历史高位大幅下跌。

It’s also important to note that the impact of Bitcoin’s post-halving market rallies has been progressively weaker over time, which is likely down to growing institutional adoption keeping prices better anchored against wild price fluctuations.

同样重要的是要注意，随着时间的推移，比特币减半后市场反弹的影响逐渐减弱，这可能是由于越来越多的机构采用让价格更好地锚定价格以应对剧烈的价格波动。

With US Spot ETFs managing $58 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing around 4.6% of the coin’s circulating supply as of October 2024, the result will be calmer crypto winters but at the cost of market rallies with a weaker impact than in BTC’s more erratic formative years.

截至 2024 年 10 月，美国现货 ETF 管理着价值 580 亿美元的比特币，约占比特币流通供应量的 4.6%，其结果将是加密货币的冬天更加平静，但代价是市场反弹，其影响力比 BTC 更不稳定的形成时期要弱。 。

Finally, Bitcoin’s 2021 market rally coincided with masses of government stimulus packages distributed in response to the pandemic, helping to provide far more investor spending power throughout the cryptocurrency landscape, especially when you consider that crypto is slowly becoming a real currency, being integrated into various payment processors, AP automation tools and payment gateways.

最后，比特币 2021 年的市场反弹恰逢政府为应对疫情而推出的大量刺激计划，有助于在整个加密货币领域提供更多的投资者消费能力，特别是当你考虑到加密货币正在慢慢成为一种真正的货币，并融入各种支付处理器、AP 自动化工具和支付网关。

With stubborn inflation and higher interest rates hampering retail investors in 2024, could investors be entering Bitcoin’s latest bull run less confident than in 2020 and 2021? Not if Donald Trump decides to make good on his pro-crypto pledges.

由于2024年顽固的通货膨胀和较高的利率会阻碍散户投资者，投资者在进入比特币最新牛市时是否会比2020年和2021年信心不足？如果唐纳德·特朗普决定兑现他支持加密货币的承诺，情况就不会如此。

The Trump Effect

特朗普效应

One of Donald Trump’s most resounding pledges on the election campaign trail was that the President-elect would ensure that the Treasury and Federal Reserve purchase 200,000 BTC each year for five years to accrue one million tokens at 5% of the total global supply of the cryptocurrency.

唐纳德·特朗普在竞选过程中最响亮的承诺之一是，当选总统将确保财政部和美联储在五年内每年购买 20 万个比特币，以占全球加密货币总供应量的 5% 积累 100 万个代币。

Whether such an ambitious project makes it off the ground will have major ramifications on

这样一个雄心勃勃的项目是否能够落地将产生重大影响