2025 年比特幣價格預測：川普效應

2024 年對比特幣來說是獨一無二的一年，加密貨幣的長期生存能力和採用率不斷跨越重要里程碑

2024 has been a year like no other for Bitcoin, with major milestones for the cryptocurrency’s long-term viability and adoption being crossed consistently throughout the year.

對比特幣來說，2024 年是與眾不同的一年，而這項加密貨幣的長期生存能力和採用率在這一年中不斷跨越重要里程碑。

January saw SEC approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs finally bringing the world’s most famous digital currency to Wall Street, driving BTC to a fresh all-time high of almost $73,100 in the first quarter.

1 月份，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准現貨比特幣 ETF，最終將世界上最著名的數位貨幣引入華爾街，推動 BTC 在第一季創下近 73,100 美元的歷史新高。

One month later, Bitcoin’s fourth halving event occurred, a pre-programmed process that occurs every four years to actively halve the distribution of BTC to the coin’s miners as part of its proof-of-work (PoW) protocol.

一個月後，比特幣第四次減半事件發生了，這是一個每四年發生一次的預編程過程，作為工作量證明 (PoW) 協議的一部分，主動將 BTC 分配給礦工減半。

Halving events are bullish because they double Bitcoin’s scarcity overnight, slowing down their distribution in the process. Each year following a halving event, BTC has broken new ground in steep price rallies towards all-time highs.

減半事件是看漲的，因為它們在一夜之間使比特幣的稀缺性增加了一倍，並在此過程中減慢了其分配速度。每年減半事件發生後，比特幣都會開闢新的天地，價格急遽上漲，創歷史新高。

The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the coin’s pre-programmed halving event meant that analysts and enthusiasts alike anticipated a major bull market arriving in late 2024 and early 2025, but the resounding US election victory for Donald Trump, a candidate who spoke of Bitcoin at length on the campaign trail, be the catalyst to push the cryptocurrency higher than previously imagined.

現貨比特幣ETF 的批准以及比特幣預先計劃的減半事件意味著分析師和愛好者都預計重大牛市將在2024 年底和2025 年初到來，但唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump) 在美國大選中取得了壓倒性的勝利，他是一位在競選活動的長度，成為將加密貨幣推向比之前想像更高的催化劑。

Is Bitcoin’s Trump bump set to be sustained over the coming months? Let’s take a deeper look at what to expect in 2025 for the answers:

未來幾個月比特幣的川普上漲是否會持續？讓我們更深入地了解 2025 年的答案：

Learning From Stock-to-Flow

從庫存到流量的學習

In a famously volatile and sentiment-driven cryptocurrency landscape that rarely follows patterns, stock-to-flow has remained one of the only consistent metrics for charting future price movements for Bitcoin.

在一個眾所周知的波動性和情緒驅動的加密貨幣環境中，很少遵循模式，庫存流通量仍然是繪製比特幣未來價格走勢的唯一一致指標之一。

In a nutshell, stock-to-flow helps to measure how scarce a commodity is, and is calculated by taking the existing amount of the commodity (the stock) and dividing it by the additional volume of the commodity produced over the year (the flow).

簡而言之，庫存流量比有助於衡量商品的稀缺程度，其計算方法是將商品的現有數量（庫存）除以一年中生產的商品的額外數量（流量） ）。

This model indicates that the higher margins of existing stock compared to the new flow being produced creates a higher stock-to-flow, and helps to underline one of Bitcoin’s core mechanisms.

該模型表明，與正在產生的新流量相比，現有庫存的利潤率較高，從而創造了更高的庫存流量比，並有助於強調比特幣的核心機制之一。

First created by pseudonymous Twitter user PlanB, S2F has loosely followed Bitcoin’s past price rallies with considerable accuracy, and with halving events cutting the flow of new BTC produced by 50% every four years, its stock-to-flow model always factors in a significant bull market which will conclude in 2025.

S2F 最初由匿名Twitter 用戶PlanB 創建，它以相當準確的方式鬆散地追蹤了比特幣過去的價格上漲，並且隨著減半事件每四年將新產生的BTC 流量減少50%，其存量流量模型總是將顯著的影響因素考慮在內。

But how high does this mean Bitcoin will go next year? Different models have drawn wildly different but consistently sky-high conclusions. PlanB suggests that Bitcoin can peak at $500,000 in 2025, while models from the likes of Glassnode, Newhedge, and Bitbo have all charted rallies in excess of $1,000,000 between spring and summer next year.

但這意味著比特幣明年會漲到多高？不同的模型得出了截然不同但始終很高的結論。 PlanB 表示，比特幣可能會在 2025 年達到 50 萬美元的峰值，而 Glassnode、Newhedge 和 Bitbo 等公司的模型都繪製了明年春季和夏季期間超過 1,000,000 美元的漲幅。

More ‘conservative’ estimates from Bitcoin Magazine and Coinglass have BTC peaking at around $410,000 by April as part of their respective S2F models.

《比特幣雜誌》和 Coinglass 的更「保守」的估計是，作為各自 S2F 模型的一部分，BTC 到 4 月將達到 41 萬美元左右的峰值。

Inconsistencies With S2F

與 S2F 的不一致

One key problem with the accuracy of stock-to-flow models is that Bitcoin’s peak prices at the conclusion of a bull run are typically followed by deep pullbacks that result in ‘crypto winter’, a period of consistent slow or negative growth that can see the asset fall dramatically from its all-time high values.

庫存流量模型準確性的一個關鍵問題是，比特幣在牛市結束時的峰值價格通常會出現大幅回調，從而導致“加密貨幣冬天”，這是一段持續緩慢或負增長的時期，可能會導致比特幣價格持續緩慢或負成長。

It’s also important to note that the impact of Bitcoin’s post-halving market rallies has been progressively weaker over time, which is likely down to growing institutional adoption keeping prices better anchored against wild price fluctuations.

同樣重要的是要注意，隨著時間的推移，比特幣減半後市場反彈的影響逐漸減弱，這可能是由於越來越多的機構採用讓價格更好地錨定價格以應對劇烈的價格波動。

With US Spot ETFs managing $58 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing around 4.6% of the coin’s circulating supply as of October 2024, the result will be calmer crypto winters but at the cost of market rallies with a weaker impact than in BTC’s more erratic formative years.

截至2024 年10 月，美國現貨ETF 管理著價值580 億美元的比特幣，約佔比特幣流通供應量的4.6%，結果將是加密貨幣的冬天更加平靜，但代價是市場反彈，其影響力比BTC 更不穩定的形成時期弱。

Finally, Bitcoin’s 2021 market rally coincided with masses of government stimulus packages distributed in response to the pandemic, helping to provide far more investor spending power throughout the cryptocurrency landscape, especially when you consider that crypto is slowly becoming a real currency, being integrated into various payment processors, AP automation tools and payment gateways.

最後，比特幣2021 年的市場反彈恰逢政府為應對疫情而推出的大量刺激計劃，有助於在整個加密貨幣領域提供更多的投資者消費能力，特別是當你考慮到加密貨幣正在慢慢成為一種真正的貨幣，並融入各種支付處理器、AP 自動化工具和支付網關。

With stubborn inflation and higher interest rates hampering retail investors in 2024, could investors be entering Bitcoin’s latest bull run less confident than in 2020 and 2021? Not if Donald Trump decides to make good on his pro-crypto pledges.

由於2024年頑固的通貨膨脹和較高的利率會阻礙散戶投資者，投資者在進入比特幣最新牛市時是否會比2020年和2021年信心不足？如果唐納德·川普決定兌現他支持加密貨幣的承諾，情況就不會如此。

The Trump Effect

川普效應

One of Donald Trump’s most resounding pledges on the election campaign trail was that the President-elect would ensure that the Treasury and Federal Reserve purchase 200,000 BTC each year for five years to accrue one million tokens at 5% of the total global supply of the cryptocurrency.

唐納德·川普在競選過程中最響亮的承諾之一是，當選總統將確保財政部和聯準會在五年內每年購買20 萬個比特幣，以佔全球加密貨幣總供應量5% 的比例累積100萬個代幣。

Whether such an ambitious project makes it off the ground will have major ramifications on

這樣一個雄心勃勃的計畫是否能夠落地將產生重大影響