比特币价格预测：BTC 能否突破 180 万美元，还是历史会重演？

比特币爱好者兴奋不已，因为一项新的分析表明，如果加密货币复制之前牛市的爆炸性收益，它可能会达到前所未有的高度。

Bitcoin enthusiasts are optimistic as a new analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could reach new heights if it follows the gains of previous bull runs. According to Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright, Bitcoin could reach $1.8 million if it matches the performance of the 2017 bull market. However, historical data suggests a more modest peak around $180,000 this cycle.

比特币爱好者感到乐观，因为一项新的分析表明，如果加密货币追随之前牛市的涨幅，可能会达到新的高度。 Liam 'Akiba' Wright 表示，如果比特币与 2017 年牛市的表现相匹配，其价格可能会达到 180 万美元。然而，历史数据表明，本周期的峰值较为温和，约为 180,000 美元。

Bitcoin has undergone four-year halving cycles, which have led to large price increases. But each cycle has shown a decrease in the magnitude of these gains.

比特币经历了四年的减半周期，导致价格大幅上涨。但每个周期都显示这些收益的幅度有所下降。

This consistent reduction in the rate of price increases with each halving cycle has led analysts to believe that there is a pattern of diminishing returns. Based on this trend, the anticipated price increase for the current cycle is estimated to be around 26-27% of the previous cycle’s growth.

每个减半周期中价格上涨率的持续下降使分析师相信存在收益递减的模式。根据这一趋势，本周期的预期价格涨幅预计约为上一周期涨幅的 26-27%。

If Bitcoin continues to follow this trend of diminishing returns, an approximate increase of 195% from the halving price could be expected in this cycle. This forecast places Bitcoin’s potential peak price at around $180,000. While this target may appear conservative in comparison to more bullish predictions, it still represents a significant increase from current levels.

如果比特币继续遵循这种收益递减的趋势，预计本周期价格将比减半价格上涨约 195%。该预测将比特币的潜在峰值价格定为 18 万美元左右。尽管与更为乐观的预测相比，这一目标可能显得保守，但它仍然比当前水平显着增加。

The calculation is based on the following logic:

计算基于以下逻辑：

Halving price: $42,000 (approximate price at the time of the last halving in May 2020)

减半价格：42,000美元（2020年5月上次减半时的大致价格）

26-27% of the previous cycle’s growth: 195% (considering the last cycle saw a 720% increase from the halving price)

上一周期增长的26-27%：195%（考虑到上一周期较减半价格增长了720%）

Thus, an increase of approximately 195% from the current halving price could realistically see Bitcoin reach $180,000 in this bull run.

因此，如果比特币在当前的减半价格基础上上涨约 195%，那么在本次牛市中比特币的价格实际上可能会达到 180,000 美元。

While historical patterns provide a framework for price predictions, the cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin were to deviate from the diminishing returns pattern and see a more robust increase, similar to 50% or even 100% of the last cycle’s percentage increase, prices could soar to:

虽然历史模式为价格预测提供了框架，但加密货币市场以其不可预测性而闻名。分析师表示，如果比特币摆脱收益递减模式并出现更强劲的增长，类似于上一个周期百分比增长的 50% 甚至 100%，价格可能会飙升至：

50% of last cycle: 365% increase, leading to a peak price of $365,000.

上一周期的 50%：上涨 365%，价格峰值达到 365,000 美元。

100% of last cycle: 720% increase, resulting in a peak price of $620,000.

上一周期的 100%：上涨 720%，导致峰值价格达到 620,000 美元。

However, the most bullish scenario proposed by Wright is that Bitcoin might replicate the massive gains seen in the 2017 bull market. If this were to happen, the cryptocurrency could reach as high as $1.8 million per coin. This optimistic projection would require an unprecedented surge, breaking the current pattern of diminishing returns and attracting a wave of new institutional investment and retail interest.

然而，赖特提出的最乐观的情景是，比特币可能会复制 2017 年牛市中的巨大涨幅。如果这种情况发生，每枚加密货币的价格可能高达 180 万美元。这种乐观的预测将需要前所未有的激增，打破当前回报递减的模式，并吸引一波新的机构投资和散户兴趣。

Several factors could influence whether Bitcoin will see a price peak closer to the modest $180,000 mark or reach the lofty $1.8 million target. These include the macroeconomic environment, such as inflation and interest rates, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, the adoption and use of Bitcoin by institutions and the general public, and the performance of other cryptocurrencies in the market.

有几个因素可能会影响比特币的价格峰值是否会接近 18 万美元大关，还是达到 180 万美元的崇高目标。其中包括宏观经济环境，例如通货膨胀和利率、加密货币的监管环境、机构和公众对比特币的采用和使用，以及市场上其他加密货币的表现。

As the halving cycle progresses, market participants will closely watch key price levels, whale activity, and macroeconomic indicators to gauge whether Bitcoin can defy historical trends or continue its pattern of diminishing returns.

随着减半周期的进行，市场参与者将密切关注关键价格水平、鲸鱼活动和宏观经济指标，以衡量比特币是否能够挑战历史趋势或继续其收益递减的模式。