比特币价格预测：美国大选前空头目标为 6 万美元，比特币难以保持在 6.7 万美元以上

比特币价格最近试图突破 73,700 美元附近的历史高点 (ATH)，但涨势遇到强劲阻力，阻止了上涨趋势。

Bitcoin price faced strong resistance at around $73,562 on Oct. 30, 2024, in its latest attempt to break its all-time high. The rally was halted, and the token began a bearish trend, dropping to $68,000 on Nov. 4.

2024 年 10 月 30 日，比特币价格在 73,562 美元附近遭遇强劲阻力，这是其最近一次试图突破历史高点的尝试。涨势停止，代币开始看跌趋势，于 11 月 4 日跌至 68,000 美元。

The upcoming U.S. presidential election is also expected to bring increased volatility to the markets, as uncertainty usually heightens around major political events. While some anticipate a potential rebound, others remain cautious, especially after Bitcoin failed to secure a new all-time high.

即将到来的美国总统大选预计也会给市场带来更大的波动，因为重大政治事件的不确定性通常会加剧。虽然一些人预计可能会反弹，但另一些人则保持谨慎，尤其是在比特币未能创下历史新高之后。

The bearish market outlook adds another layer of risk to the market environment.

悲观的市场前景给市场环境增添了另一层风险。

Independent market analyst Alan Santana highlighted a pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements. He noticed similarities between the 2021 double-top formation and the current setup in 2024.

独立市场分析师艾伦·桑塔纳强调了比特币价格走势的模式。他注意到 2021 年的双顶形态与 2024 年的当前形态有相似之处。

In both cases, Bitcoin reached a high with rising volume, followed by a second peak with declining volume, which might indicate an exhaustion of bullish momentum.

在这两种情况下，比特币都达到了成交量上涨的高点，随后又出现了成交量下降的第二个峰值，这可能表明看涨势头已经耗尽。

Santana observed that the recent peak showed low market participation, with whale dominance and minimal retail involvement, which added a layer of risk since retail participation is usually an indicator of broader market interest.

桑塔纳观察到，最近的峰值显示市场参与度较低，鲸鱼占主导地位，散户参与度极低，这增加了一层风险，因为散户参与度通常是更广泛市场兴趣的指标。

Daan Crypto Trades offered a predictive analysis, projecting potential volatility in response to the U.S. election outcome. According to Daan, Bitcoin’s price could swing by at least 10%, either up or down, depending on the election result.

Daan Crypto Trades 提供了预测分析，预测了美国大选结果带来的潜在波动。 Daan 表示，根据选举结果，比特币的价格可能会上涨或下跌至少 10%。

Other bearish cues include a reversal in the “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” from bullish to neutral, indicating a shift in market sentiment that often precedes a price pullback.

其他看跌信号包括“加密资产情绪指数”从看涨转向中性，表明市场情绪发生转变，而这种转变往往先于价格回调。

Moreover, Bitcoin spot net buying volumes on exchanges have not accelerated, with net selling volumes suggesting that holders are offloading their positions, leading to potential downward pressure on prices, Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, said in a research note.

此外，Bitwise 研究主管 Andre Dragosch 在一份研究报告中表示，交易所的比特币现货净买入量并未加速，净卖出量表明持有者正在抛售头寸，从而导致价格面临潜在下行压力。

Interestingly, Bitcoin whales transferred a significant amount of BTC (29,000 BTC) to exchanges, which is usually a precursor to selling and can increase selling pressure, especially if whales aim to liquidate their holdings.

有趣的是，比特币鲸鱼将大量 BTC（29,000 BTC）转移到交易所，这通常是抛售的前兆，并且可能会增加抛售压力，特别是如果鲸鱼打算清算其持有的资产。

bulls struggling to hold BTC above $67,000

多头努力将比特币维持在 67,000 美元以上

Meanwhile, the BTC USD pair broke through several support levels in its six day long bear run that saw the token drop nearly 8% to reach a daily low around $67,200 on Nov. 4. However, the bulls managed to halt the downtrend and keep BTC price above $67,000.

与此同时，BTC 美元货币对在六天的长期熊市中突破了多个支撑位，该货币对于 11 月 4 日下跌近 8%，触及每日低点 6​​7,200 美元左右。然而，多头成功阻止了下跌趋势，并保住了 BTC价格超过 67,000 美元。

A Harris win could see BTC price giving up more of its gains, potentially leading the token to the 100-day EMA (blue) support near $63,980.

哈里斯获胜可能会导致 BTC 价格回吐更多涨幅，从而可能导致该代币升至 63,980 美元附近的 100 日均线（蓝色）支撑位。

Failure of the EMA support might result in Bitcoin price testing the support near $59,600 before recovering.

EMA 支撑失败可能会导致比特币价格在恢复之前测试 59,600 美元附近的支撑位。

On the other hand, a recovery from here would see BTC price facing resistance near the $71,650 price level. Breaking and consolidating above it might help the token rally to a new all-time high enar near $77,800.

另一方面，如果比特币价格从此处反弹，将面临 71,650 美元价格水平附近的阻力。突破并巩固在其上方可能会帮助代币反弹至接近 77,800 美元的历史新高。

The RSI for BTC remained neutral, with a score of 50.67 on the daily charts.

BTC 的 RSI 保持中性，日线图得分为 50.67。