比特币价格预测：为什么BTC在此周期结束后可以降至30,000美元

托尼（Tony）“公牛”塞弗里诺（The Bull）是一位备受关注的加密分析师，最近访问了社交媒体平台X，分享了比特币历史价格行为的详细细分。

Tony "The Bull" Severino, a well-followed crypto analyst, recently took to the social media platform X to share a detailed breakdown of Bitcoin's historical price behavior. The analysis uses a cyclical lens that many in the crypto community (both bulls and bears) agree holds significant relevance.

托尼·“公牛” Severino是一位备受关注的加密分析师，最近访问了社交媒体平台X，分享了比特币历史价格行为的详细细分。该分析使用了一个周期性的镜头，加密社区中许多人（公牛和熊）都同意具有很大的意义。

Notably, Severino focuses on the concept of Bitcoin's four-year cycles and how troughs and crests have consistently marked the periods of greatest opportunity and greatest risks for investing in Bitcoin. This analysis comes in light of Bitcoin's recent price correction below $90,000 in March.

值得注意的是，Severino专注于比特币的四年周期的概念，以及如何始终如一地标志着最大的机会时期和对比特币投资的最大风险。这项分析是根据比特币在三月份的90,000美元低于90,000美元的价格更正来进行的。

Cycles Define Sentiment: From Troughs Of Opportunity To Crests Of Risk

周期定义情绪：从机会槽到风险的冠冕

Severino's analysis starts from a foundational belief shared across the crypto industry. The widely-held belief is that Bitcoin operates in clearly defined cycles, usually lasting around four years, mostly in relation to its halving cycles. His technical outlook is based on Bitcoin's cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart that goes as far back as 2013.

Severino的分析始于整个加密货币行业的基本信念。人们普遍存在的信念是，比特币以明确定义的周期运行，通常持续四年，大部分是关于其减半周期的。他的技术前景基于比特币在每月烛台时间表图表上的周期指标，该图表早在2013年。

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin has gone through four definitive cycles in its history. These cycles, he explains, should be viewed from "trough to trough." The troughs are the darkest moments in the market, but they also represent the point of maximum financial opportunity.

如下图所示，比特币在其历史上经历了四个确定的周期。他解释说，这些周期应从“槽到槽”。槽是市场上最黑暗的时刻，但它们也代表了最大的财务机会。

As these cycles progress, Bitcoin transitions through periods of increasing optimism, eventually arriving at what the analyst calls the "cyclical crest." These crests, highlighted in red in his chart, are the periods where Bitcoin has reached its point of maximum financial risk. This is relayed in the ensuing price actions, with the Bitcoin price topping out right after passing each cyclical crest.

随着这些周期的发展，比特币通过增加乐观的时期过渡，最终达到了分析师所谓的“周期性波峰”。这些波峰在他的图表中以红色突出显示，是比特币达到最大财务风险点的时期。随后的价格动作中传达了这一点，在通过每个周期性波峰之后，比特币的价格立即升至。

Bitcoin passed through its crest in the current market cycle just before reaching its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If past cycles are any indication, the coming months could reveal whether a top is already in.

比特币在当前的市场周期中经过了波峰，直到2025年1月达到其历史最高点108,786美元。如果过去的周期有任何迹象，那么未来几个月可能会揭示顶部是否已经进入。

Right-Translated Peaks: Is BTC Running Out Of Time In This Cycle?

右翻译峰：BTC在这个周期中是否没有时间？

Bitcoin has been on a correction path since February and is currently down by 20% from this $108,786 price high. The Bitcoin price has even gone ahead to correct as low as $78,780 in the second week of March, triggering reactions as to whether the crypto has already reached its peak price this cycle.

比特币自2月以来一直处于纠正措施，目前比这个108,786美元的价格下降了20％。在3月的第二周，比特币价格甚至取得了较低的价格低至78,780美元，这引发了对加密货币是否已经达到这个周期的高峰价格的反应。

However, Bitcoin might not be in the woods yet, as not all crests are followed immediately by market tops. Severino pointed out that past cycles have featured "right-translated" peaks where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the crest. The 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with price action staying strong for some time after the red-zone crest. In contrast, other cycles began reversing not long after reaching this point of maximum risk.

但是，比特币可能还没有在树林中，因为并非所有波峰都会立即被市场上衣。 Severino指出，过去的周期以“右翻译”峰为特色，即使在越过波峰之后，比特币仍继续略微上升。 2017年的公牛奔跑是最右的翻译，在红色区域波峰之后，价格行动保持了一段时间。相比之下，其他周期在达到最大风险点后不久就开始逆转。

Bitcoin appears to have already passed the red crest based on Severino's model, but this does not confirm a top is in just yet. Instead, it means that the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. The longer BTC continues to correct after this point, the more elevated the risk of a bearish phase becomes.

比特币似乎已经根据Severino的模型传递了红色波峰，但这尚未确认顶部尚未确定。相反，这意味着错误的边距正在迅速缩小。在这一点之后，BTC的越来越长，看跌阶段的风险越高。

BTC is attempting to regain bullish momentum at the time of writing, trading at $87,300 after rising 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Many other analysts argue that the Bitcoin price could still chart higher territory this year before a definitive top is confirmed.

BTC试图在写作时重新获得看涨的势头，在过去24小时内上涨3.6％后，交易价格为87,300美元。许多其他分析师认为，在确认最终顶部之前，比特币价格仍然可以绘制出更高的领土。