比特币价格将出现异常波动，会飙升还是崩盘？

市场热切等待定于本月召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。 10x Research 研究总监 Markus Thielen 表示，这次会议应该会引发比特币价格的重大突破。

Anticipation builds as the price of bitcoin appears poised for an exceptional movement, sparking speculations about whether it will soar or collapse. Analysts are preparing for a potential breakout, while investors eagerly await the outcome.

随着比特币价格似乎即将出现异常波动，人们的预期不断增强，引发了人们对其是否会飙升或崩溃的猜测。分析师正在为潜在的突破做准备，而投资者则热切等待结果。

The upcoming January FOMC meeting is being closely watched by the market. According to Markus Thielen, research director at 10x Research, this meeting could trigger a significant price breakout on bitcoin. Chart signals indicate a "contracting triangle," suggesting a strong price move is on the horizon.

即将召开的1月FOMC会议受到市场密切关注。 10x Research 研究总监 Markus Thielen 表示，这次会议可能会引发比特币价格的重大突破。图表信号显示“收缩三角形”，表明价格即将出现强劲走势。

This technical formation points to two possible scenarios. If inflation comes in lower than expected, it could propel bitcoin to new heights, breaking above its current psychological barrier.

这种技术形态指出了两种可能的情况。如果通胀低于预期，可能会将比特币推向新的高度，突破目前的心理障碍。

Investors are largely anticipating a potential easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, which would be favorable to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, the Fed's stance on the matter remains uncertain.

投资者很大程度上预计美联储可能放松货币政策立场，这将有利于加密货币等风险资产。然而，美联储对此事的立场仍不确定。

On the other hand, the Fed has maintained a "belligerent" tone in its recent statements. In its previous announcement, it signaled that there would be fewer rate cuts in 2025 than initially anticipated.

另一方面，美联储在近期的声明中一直保持着“好战”的语气。在之前的公告中，它暗示2025年的降息幅度将比最初预期的要少。

If the meeting confirms this stance, it could lead to profit-taking and a downturn in bitcoin. As a result, all eyes are on the FOMC, which is expected to dictate the short-term trend of bitcoin.

如果会议确认了这一立场，可能会导致获利了结和比特币下跌。因此，所有人的目光都集中在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上，预计它将决定比特币的短期走势。

Some observers are exercising caution as we approach Donald Trump's inauguration, with past experiences indicating that political instability can hinder bitcoin's momentum, even leading to a period of consolidation.

在唐纳德·特朗普就职典礼临近之际，一些观察家保持谨慎态度，过去的经验表明，政治不稳定可能会阻碍比特币的发展势头，甚至导致一段时间的盘整。

Thielen suggests that crypto could stagnate until mid-March, awaiting a more stable economic climate.

Thielen 表示，加密货币可能会停滞到 3 月中旬，等待更稳定的经济环境。

However, others point out that bitcoin has consistently defied predictions, with analyst Lark Davis comparing the current market to the period leading up to the last presidential election.

然而，其他人指出，比特币一直违背预测，分析师 Lark Davis 将当前市场与上次总统选举前的时期进行了比较。

At the time, a dip towards the $30,000 mark was followed by a dramatic surge to $55,000 soon after the inauguration.

当时，价格跌至 30,000 美元大关，就职后不久又急剧飙升至 55,000 美元。

This optimistic scenario is enticing to investors, although history may not always repeat itself precisely. Nevertheless, crypto has a knack for surprising, and a bullish shock is still possible if macroeconomic signals align in the market's favor.

这种乐观的情景对投资者来说很有吸引力，尽管历史可能并不总是准确地重演。尽管如此，加密货币有一种令人惊讶的能力，如果宏观经济信号符合市场的意愿，看涨冲击仍然是可能的。

In the coming weeks, we can expect to see a lot of attention on bitcoin, with its price movements promising to be crucial. Meanwhile, Semler Scientific is making a $23 million investment.

在未来几周内，我们预计比特币将受到大量关注，其价格走势有望至关重要。与此同时，Semler Scientific 正在投资 2300 万美元。

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Evariste has been fascinated by bitcoin since 2017, and his interest in the subject has only grown over the years. Initially drawn to trading, he now actively seeks to understand all aspects of cryptocurrency. As a writer, Evariste endeavors to present high-quality work that reflects the state of the crypto scene at large.

Evariste 自 2017 年以来就对比特币着迷，多年来他对这一主题的兴趣有增无减。他最初对交易感兴趣，现在积极寻求了解加密货币的各个方面。作为一名作家，Evariste 致力于呈现反映整个加密货币场景现状的高质量作品。