比特币价格波动：专家分析市场波动中的潜在天花板

在价格下跌 9% 的情况下，比特币 (BTC) 徘徊在 65,000 美元左右，引发了对潜在价格顶部的猜测。经验丰富的交易员 Charles Edwards 提出了监控这一周期的 13 个重要信号，包括霍德勒增长率放缓、休眠流量增加、超过 95% 的比特币地址盈利以及美国金融机构流动性下降。这些指标表明市场有可能见顶，但需要进一步监测以确定潜在调整的时间和程度。

Bitcoin's Price Fluctuations: Market Experts Weigh in on Potential Price Ceiling

比特币的价格波动：市场专家评估潜在的价格上限

In the wake of a nearly 9% decline since the beginning of April, Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to the $65,000 price level, prompting a surge of speculation among cryptocurrency traders and investors. Amidst the ongoing uncertainty, market experts have turned their attention to historical indicators and patterns to discern whether BTC has reached a price ceiling for this market cycle.

自 4 月初以来下跌近 9% 后，比特币 (BTC) 价格已回落至 65,000 美元水平，引发加密货币交易者和投资者的投机行为激增。在持续的不确定性中，市场专家将注意力转向历史指标和模式，以判断比特币是否已达到本市场周期的价格上限。

Historical Indicators Provide Insights into Price Trends

历史指标提供对价格趋势的洞察

Accurately predicting market peaks and troughs remains an elusive endeavor, even for seasoned traders. However, by analyzing historical data and identifying recurring patterns, experienced investors can make informed assessments regarding the likelihood of future market movements.

即使对于经验丰富的交易者来说，准确预测市场波峰和波谷仍然是一项难以实现的任务。然而，通过分析历史数据和识别重复出现的模式，经验丰富的投资者可以对未来市场走势的可能性做出明智的评估。

One such expert is Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Edwards has identified 13 key Bitcoin top signals to monitor during this cycle, offering valuable insights into the potential trajectory of the cryptocurrency's price.

Capriole Investments 的创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 就是这样一位专家。 Edwards 确定了在此周期内需要监控的 13 个关键比特币主要信号，为了解加密货币价格的潜在轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。

Four Top Signals Indicate Potential for Price Correction

四个主要信号表明价格修正的潜力

Of the 13 top signals identified by Edwards, four currently register as high risk, suggesting an elevated probability of a price correction. These signals, retrieved from Edwards' on-chain analysis, provide valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of the Bitcoin market.

在爱德华兹确定的 13 个主要信号中，有 4 个目前被列为高风险，表明价格回调的可能性较高。这些信号是从爱德华兹的链上分析中检索到的，为了解比特币市场的潜在动态提供了宝贵的见解。

1. Hodler Growth Rate (HGR) Slowdown: A slowing HGR indicates that fewer individuals are accumulating Bitcoin long-term, a trend that has historically coincided with market tops.
2. Dormancy Flow: When dormant Bitcoin wallets become more active, it suggests that older coins are being sold, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment toward profit-taking.
3. Percentage of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit: When the percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit exceeds 95%, it increases the likelihood of an extended period of profit realization, potentially leading to a market decline.
4. US Liquidity: Changes in year-over-year liquidity of financial institutions in the United States have a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price history. A downtrend in liquidity, as observed recently, raises concerns about a potential market top.

Cautious Optimism Amidst Top Signals

霍德勒增长率 (HGR) 放缓：HGR 放缓表明长期积累比特币的个人数量减少，这一趋势在历史上与市场顶部一致。 休眠流：当休眠的比特币钱包变得更加活跃时，这表明较旧的比特币正在被淘汰比特币地址盈利百分比：当比特币地址盈利百分比超过 95% 时，就增加了长时间实现利润的可能性，可能导致市场下跌美国流动性：美国金融机构流动性的同比变化与比特币的价格历史有很强的相关性。最近观察到的流动性下降趋势引发了人们对潜在市场顶部的担忧。 顶级信号中的谨慎乐观

While these top signals indicate the possibility of a price correction, it is important to note that they are not definitive indicators. Edwards emphasizes the need to monitor these metrics closely and avoid relying solely on arbitrary price targets or unfounded speculation.

虽然这些重要信号表明价格可能会出现调整，但值得注意的是，它们并不是明确的指标。爱德华兹强调需要密切监控这些指标，避免仅仅依赖任意的价格目标或毫无根据的投机。

Despite the emergence of these signals, Capriole Investments maintains a cautious optimism regarding the mid-term outlook for the Bitcoin market. However, investors are urged to remain vigilant, evaluating these signals alongside other relevant data to make informed decisions that maximize their long-term profitability.

尽管出现了这些信号，Capriole Investments 对比特币市场的中期前景仍保持谨慎乐观的态度。然而，投资者应保持警惕，将这些信号与其他相关数据一起评估，以做出明智的决策，从而最大限度地提高长期盈利能力。

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves significant risk, and individuals should always conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文提供的信息不应被视为投资建议。加密货币投资涉及重大风险，个人在做出任何投资决定之前应始终进行彻底的研究并咨询金融专业人士。