比特幣價格波動：專家分析市場波動中的潛在天花板

在價格下跌 9% 的情況下，比特幣 (BTC) 徘徊在 65,000 美元左右，引發了對潛在價格頂部的猜測。經驗豐富的交易員 Charles Edwards 提出了監控這一周期的 13 個重要訊號，包括霍德勒成長率放緩、休眠流量增加、超過 95% 的比特幣地址盈利以及美國金融機構流動性下降。這些指標表明市場有可能見頂，但需要進一步監測以確定潛在調整的時間和程度。

Bitcoin's Price Fluctuations: Market Experts Weigh in on Potential Price Ceiling

比特幣的價格波動：市場專家評估潛在的價格上限

In the wake of a nearly 9% decline since the beginning of April, Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to the $65,000 price level, prompting a surge of speculation among cryptocurrency traders and investors. Amidst the ongoing uncertainty, market experts have turned their attention to historical indicators and patterns to discern whether BTC has reached a price ceiling for this market cycle.

自 4 月初以來下跌近 9% 後，比特幣 (BTC) 價格已回落至 65,000 美元水平，引發加密貨幣交易者和投資者的投機行為激增。在持續的不確定性中，市場專家將注意力轉向歷史指標和模式，以判斷比特幣是否已達到本市場週期的價格上限。

Historical Indicators Provide Insights into Price Trends

歷史指標提供對價格趨勢的洞察

Accurately predicting market peaks and troughs remains an elusive endeavor, even for seasoned traders. However, by analyzing historical data and identifying recurring patterns, experienced investors can make informed assessments regarding the likelihood of future market movements.

即使對於經驗豐富的交易者來說，準確預測市場波峰和波谷仍然是一項難以實現的任務。然而，透過分析歷史數據和識別重複出現的模式，經驗豐富的投資者可以對未來市場趨勢的可能性做出明智的評估。

One such expert is Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Edwards has identified 13 key Bitcoin top signals to monitor during this cycle, offering valuable insights into the potential trajectory of the cryptocurrency's price.

Capriole Investments 的創辦人查爾斯‧愛德華茲 (Charles Edwards) 就是這樣一位專家。 Edwards 確定了 13 個在此週期內需要監控的關鍵比特幣主要訊號，為了解加密貨幣價格的潛在軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。

Four Top Signals Indicate Potential for Price Correction

四個主要訊號顯示價格修正的潛力

Of the 13 top signals identified by Edwards, four currently register as high risk, suggesting an elevated probability of a price correction. These signals, retrieved from Edwards' on-chain analysis, provide valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of the Bitcoin market.

在愛德華茲確定的 13 個主要訊號中，有 4 個目前被列為高風險，顯示價格回檔的可能性較高。這些訊號是從愛德華茲的鏈上分析中檢索到的，為了解比特幣市場的潛在動態提供了寶貴的見解。

1. Hodler Growth Rate (HGR) Slowdown: A slowing HGR indicates that fewer individuals are accumulating Bitcoin long-term, a trend that has historically coincided with market tops.
2. Dormancy Flow: When dormant Bitcoin wallets become more active, it suggests that older coins are being sold, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment toward profit-taking.
3. Percentage of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit: When the percentage of Bitcoin addresses in profit exceeds 95%, it increases the likelihood of an extended period of profit realization, potentially leading to a market decline.
4. US Liquidity: Changes in year-over-year liquidity of financial institutions in the United States have a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price history. A downtrend in liquidity, as observed recently, raises concerns about a potential market top.

Cautious Optimism Amidst Top Signals

霍德勒成長率(HGR) 放緩：HGR 放緩表明長期累積比特幣的個人數量減少，這一趨勢在歷史上與市場頂部一致。休眠流： 當休眠的比特幣錢包變得更加活躍時，這表明較舊的比特幣正在被淘汰比特幣地址盈利百分比：當比特幣地址盈利百分比超過 95% 時，就增加了長時間實現利潤的可能性，可能導致市場下跌美國流動性：美國金融機構流動性的同比變化與比特幣的價格歷史有很強的相關性。最近觀察到的流動性下降趨勢引發了人們對潛在市場頂部的擔憂。頂級訊號中的謹慎 樂觀

While these top signals indicate the possibility of a price correction, it is important to note that they are not definitive indicators. Edwards emphasizes the need to monitor these metrics closely and avoid relying solely on arbitrary price targets or unfounded speculation.

雖然這些重要訊號表明價格可能會出現調整，但值得注意的是，它們並不是明確的指標。愛德華茲強調需要密切監控這些指標，避免僅依賴任意的價格目標或毫無根據的投機。

Despite the emergence of these signals, Capriole Investments maintains a cautious optimism regarding the mid-term outlook for the Bitcoin market. However, investors are urged to remain vigilant, evaluating these signals alongside other relevant data to make informed decisions that maximize their long-term profitability.

儘管出現了這些訊號，Capriole Investments 對比特幣市場的中期前景仍保持謹慎樂觀的態度。然而，投資者應保持警惕，將這些訊號與其他相關數據一起評估，以做出明智的決策，從而最大限度地提高長期獲利能力。

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves significant risk, and individuals should always conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文提供的資訊不應被視為投資建議。加密貨幣投資涉及重大風險，個人在做出任何投資決定之前應始終進行徹底的研究並諮詢金融專業人士。