比特币价格调整预示着市场趋势的转变

比特币最近的价格调整使其 RSI 降至 1 月份以来的最低点，表明去年开始的牛市可能结束。跌破 65,000 美元引发 RSI 大幅下跌，周六跌至 42 点的低位，这是自价格在 40,000 美元左右以来的最低水平。这表明过去一个月市场的超买状况可能已经结束，交易者将密切关注 RSI 以衡量未来几天的市场情绪。

Bitcoin's Price Correction Signals Shift in Market Trend

比特币的价格调整标志着市场趋势的转变

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Dips to Lowest Level Since January 25th

相对强弱指数 (RSI) 跌至 1 月 25 日以来的最低水平

In a significant market development, Bitcoin's recent price correction over the weekend pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to levels not witnessed since the cryptocurrency's value stood around $40,000 USD. On Saturday, Bitcoin's daily RSI plummeted to just above 42 points, a level unseen since January 25th.

在一个重大的市场发展中，比特币最近周末的价格调整将相对强弱指数 (RSI) 推升至自该加密货币价值约为 40,000 美元以来从未见过的水平。周六，比特币每日 RSI 暴跌至略高于 42 点，这是自 1 月 25 日以来的最高水平。

Understanding the Relative Strength Index

了解相对强弱指数

The RSI is a widely utilized index among traders that measures the relative strength of price movements. It assigns values between 0 and 100, signifying overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI exceeds 70, it indicates overbought territory, while values below 30 denote oversold conditions.

RSI 是交易者广泛使用的指数，用于衡量价格变动的相对强度。它指定 0 到 100 之间的值，表示超买或超卖情况。当RSI超过70时，表示超买区域，而低于30则表示超卖状况。

Overbought Territory and Bull Run

超买区域和牛市

From February 9, 2024, to March 14, Bitcoin's price remained persistently in overbought territory for over a month. However, since March 15, it has not reached these levels.

从2024年2月9日到3月14日，比特币价格在一个多月的时间里持续处于超买区域。然而，自3月15日以来，它还没有达到这些水平。

On March 14, 2024, Bitcoin recorded its all-time high of approximately $73,800 USD. Since then, the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price has never fallen below 45 points, with only three brief excursions below the 50 mark.

2024 年 3 月 14 日，比特币创下约 73,800 美元的历史新高。此后，比特币价格的每日RSI从未跌破45点，仅3次短暂跌破50大关。

Rapid Correction and RSI Drop

快速修正和 RSI 下降

However, on Saturday, due to a swift correction triggered by news of Iran's attack on Israel, the RSI plunged to as low as 42.

然而，周六，由于伊朗袭击以色列的消息引发迅速回调，RSI 暴跌至 42。

Comparison with Previous Months

与前几个月的比较

The last time the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price fell below 45 points was on January 25th, when the price hovered around $40,000 and the RSI stood at 38. Notably, the last occasion when Bitcoin's price entered oversold territory was in August 2023, before the announcement of Grayscale's legal victory against the SEC, which raised expectations of Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved.

比特币价格上一次日均 RSI 跌破 45 点是在 1 月 25 日，当时价格徘徊在 4 万美元左右，RSI 为 38。值得注意的是，比特币价格最后一次进入超卖区域是在 2023 年 8 月，即公告发布之前。 Grayscale 在与 SEC 的法律诉讼中取得胜利，这提高了人们对比特币现货 ETF 获得批准的预期。

Since then, Bitcoin has not only avoided dipping below 30 but has also consistently remained above 40. It exhibited a brief period of weakness only in late January 2024, when Bitcoin's price fell from $46,000 USD to $38,000 USD. However, during that episode, the RSI remained below 40 for four consecutive days, whereas on Saturday, it swiftly rebounded above 45.

此后，比特币不仅避免跌破 30，而且一直保持在 40 之上。仅在 2024 年 1 月下旬，比特币的价格从 46,000 美元跌至 38,000 美元，才表现出短暂的疲软。然而，在那段时间里，RSI 连续四天保持在 40 以下，而在周六，它迅速反弹至 45 以上。

End of Bull Run?

牛市结束？

These contrasting scenarios suggest that the current situation differs significantly from the previous bull run, where the market experienced only a momentary interruption in its upward trajectory. In contrast, the recent RSI decline suggests a potential conclusion to the bull run that commenced in the second half of last year.

这些对比鲜明的情景表明，当前的情况与之前的牛市有很大不同，当时市场的上行轨迹仅经历了短暂的中断。相比之下，最近 RSI 的下降表明去年下半年开始的牛市可能结束。

During that period, Bitcoin resided in overbought territory for an extended 25 consecutive days and briefly re-entered this zone in early December. It dipped below 50 only on January 12, but by the 27th, it had surged above this threshold once again.

在此期间，比特币连续 25 天处于超买区域，并于 12 月初短暂重新进入该区域。仅在 1 月 12 日跌破 50，但到 27 日，它再次飙升至这一阈值之上。

Rapid Price Drop and Limited Impact

价格快速下跌且影响有限

The drop in Bitcoin's price below $66,000 on Saturday and Sunday was swift yet relatively benign, characterized by an intriguing phenomenon. The sudden decline from $67,000 USD to $61,000 USD occurred on Saturday amid news of Iran's attack on Israel. Despite the panic selling evident in elevated trading volumes for a weekend, the price did not fall below $61,000 USD.

周六和周日，比特币价格跌破 66,000 美元，跌幅迅速但相对温和，这是一个有趣的现象。由于伊朗袭击以色列的消息，周六从 67,000 美元突然下跌至 61,000 美元。尽管周末交易量增加，恐慌性抛售明显，但价格并未跌破 61,000 美元。

Remarkably, the price recovered to $65,000 USD within three hours. This resilience suggests panic selling was primarily confined to those holding Bitcoin on exchanges, as inflows of Bitcoin onto crypto exchanges remained minimal during that time.

值得注意的是，价格在三小时内恢复至 65,000 美元。这种弹性表明，恐慌性抛售主要局限于那些在交易所持有比特币的人，因为在此期间，比特币流入加密货币交易所的量仍然很少。

Lack of Active Trading and Market Closure

缺乏活跃交易和市场关闭

The stock exchanges were closed over the weekend, limiting active trading in ETFs. Additionally, crypto markets typically experience lower activity on Saturdays, resulting in the crash occurring at a time when its potential impact was muted.

周末证券交易所休市，限制了 ETF 的活跃交易。此外，加密货币市场通常在周六的活动较少，导致崩盘发生在其潜在影响较小的时候。

Return to Normalcy and Optimism

回归常态和乐观

On Sunday, news emerged that Iran's attack had ended, leading to a rapid recovery in the RSI. Furthermore, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong reversed all losses accumulated over the weekend, driving Bitcoin back above $66,000 USD.

周日，有消息称伊朗的袭击已经结束，导致相对强弱指数迅速回升。此外，比特币现货 ETF 在香港的批准扭转了周末积累的所有损失，推动比特币回到 66,000 美元上方。

Currently, the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price seems poised to return to around the 50 level, indicating a neutral zone. With the impending halving event scheduled for Saturday, the RSI may even exhibit further growth in the coming days.

目前，比特币价格的每日 RSI 似乎有望回到 50 左右的水平，表明处于中性区域。随着周六即将到来的减半事件，RSI 甚至可能在未来几天表现出进一步的增长。