比特幣價格調整預示著市場趨勢的轉變

比特幣最近的價格調整使其 RSI 降至 1 月以來的最低點，表明去年開始的牛市可能結束。跌破 65,000 美元引發 RSI 大幅下跌，週六跌至 42 點的低位，這是自價格約 40,000 美元以來的最低水平。這表明過去一個月市場的超買狀況可能已經結束，交易者將密切關注 RSI 以衡量未來幾天的市場情緒。

Bitcoin's Price Correction Signals Shift in Market Trend

比特幣的價格調整標誌著市場趨勢的轉變

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Dips to Lowest Level Since January 25th

相對強弱指數 (RSI) 跌至 1 月 25 日以來的最低水平

In a significant market development, Bitcoin's recent price correction over the weekend pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to levels not witnessed since the cryptocurrency's value stood around $40,000 USD. On Saturday, Bitcoin's daily RSI plummeted to just above 42 points, a level unseen since January 25th.

在一個重大的市場發展中，比特幣最近週末的價格調整將相對強弱指數 (RSI) 推升至自該加密貨幣價值約為 40,000 美元以來從未見過的水平。週六，比特幣每日 RSI 暴跌至略高於 42 點，這是自 1 月 25 日以來的最高水準。

Understanding the Relative Strength Index

了解相對強弱指數

The RSI is a widely utilized index among traders that measures the relative strength of price movements. It assigns values between 0 and 100, signifying overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI exceeds 70, it indicates overbought territory, while values below 30 denote oversold conditions.

RSI 是交易者廣泛使用的指數，用於衡量價格變動的相對強度。它指定 0 到 100 之間的值，表示超買或超賣情況。當RSI超過70時，表示超買區域，而低於30則表示超賣狀況。

Overbought Territory and Bull Run

超買區域和牛市

From February 9, 2024, to March 14, Bitcoin's price remained persistently in overbought territory for over a month. However, since March 15, it has not reached these levels.

從2024年2月9日到3月14日，比特幣價格在一個多月的時間裡持續處於超買區域。然而，自3月15日以來，它還沒有達到這些水準。

On March 14, 2024, Bitcoin recorded its all-time high of approximately $73,800 USD. Since then, the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price has never fallen below 45 points, with only three brief excursions below the 50 mark.

2024 年 3 月 14 日，比特幣創下約 73,800 美元的歷史新高。此後，比特幣價格的每日RSI從未跌破45點，僅有3次短暫跌破50大關。

Rapid Correction and RSI Drop

快速修正和 RSI 下降

However, on Saturday, due to a swift correction triggered by news of Iran's attack on Israel, the RSI plunged to as low as 42.

然而，週六，由於伊朗襲擊以色列的消息引發迅速回調，RSI 暴跌至 42。

Comparison with Previous Months

與前幾個月的比較

The last time the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price fell below 45 points was on January 25th, when the price hovered around $40,000 and the RSI stood at 38. Notably, the last occasion when Bitcoin's price entered oversold territory was in August 2023, before the announcement of Grayscale's legal victory against the SEC, which raised expectations of Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved.

比特幣價格上一次日均RSI 跌破45 點是在1 月25 日，當時價格徘徊在4 萬美元左右，RSI 為38。 8 月，即公告發布之前。

Since then, Bitcoin has not only avoided dipping below 30 but has also consistently remained above 40. It exhibited a brief period of weakness only in late January 2024, when Bitcoin's price fell from $46,000 USD to $38,000 USD. However, during that episode, the RSI remained below 40 for four consecutive days, whereas on Saturday, it swiftly rebounded above 45.

此後，比特幣不僅避免跌破 30，而且一直保持在 40 之上。然而，在那段時間裡，RSI 連續四天保持在 40 以下，而在周六，它迅速反彈至 45 以上。

End of Bull Run?

牛市結束？

These contrasting scenarios suggest that the current situation differs significantly from the previous bull run, where the market experienced only a momentary interruption in its upward trajectory. In contrast, the recent RSI decline suggests a potential conclusion to the bull run that commenced in the second half of last year.

這些對比鮮明的情景表明，當前的情況與之前的牛市有很大不同，當時市場的上行軌跡僅經歷了短暫的中斷。相比之下，最近 RSI 的下降表明去年下半年開始的牛市可能結束。

During that period, Bitcoin resided in overbought territory for an extended 25 consecutive days and briefly re-entered this zone in early December. It dipped below 50 only on January 12, but by the 27th, it had surged above this threshold once again.

在此期間，比特幣連續 25 天處於超買區域，並於 12 月初短暫重新進入該區域。僅在 1 月 12 日跌破 50，但到 27 日，它再次飆升至這一閾值之上。

Rapid Price Drop and Limited Impact

價格快速下跌且影響有限

The drop in Bitcoin's price below $66,000 on Saturday and Sunday was swift yet relatively benign, characterized by an intriguing phenomenon. The sudden decline from $67,000 USD to $61,000 USD occurred on Saturday amid news of Iran's attack on Israel. Despite the panic selling evident in elevated trading volumes for a weekend, the price did not fall below $61,000 USD.

週六和週日，比特幣價格跌破 66,000 美元，跌幅迅速但相對溫和，這是一個有趣的現象。由於伊朗襲擊以色列的消息，週六從 67,000 美元突然下跌至 61,000 美元。儘管週末交易量增加，恐慌性拋售明顯，但價格並未跌破 61,000 美元。

Remarkably, the price recovered to $65,000 USD within three hours. This resilience suggests panic selling was primarily confined to those holding Bitcoin on exchanges, as inflows of Bitcoin onto crypto exchanges remained minimal during that time.

值得注意的是，價格在三小時內恢復至 65,000 美元。這種彈性表明，恐慌性拋售主要局限於那些在交易所持有比特幣的人，因為在此期間，比特幣流入加密貨幣交易所的量仍然很少。

Lack of Active Trading and Market Closure

缺乏活躍交易和市場關閉

The stock exchanges were closed over the weekend, limiting active trading in ETFs. Additionally, crypto markets typically experience lower activity on Saturdays, resulting in the crash occurring at a time when its potential impact was muted.

週末證券交易所休市，限制了 ETF 的活躍交易。此外，加密貨幣市場通常在周六的活動較少，導致崩盤發生在其潛在影響較小的時候。

Return to Normalcy and Optimism

回歸常態和樂觀

On Sunday, news emerged that Iran's attack had ended, leading to a rapid recovery in the RSI. Furthermore, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong reversed all losses accumulated over the weekend, driving Bitcoin back above $66,000 USD.

週日，有消息指出伊朗的攻擊已經結束，導致相對強弱指數迅速回升。此外，比特幣現貨 ETF 在香港的批准扭轉了週末累積的所有損失，推動比特幣回到 66,000 美元上方。

Currently, the daily RSI of Bitcoin's price seems poised to return to around the 50 level, indicating a neutral zone. With the impending halving event scheduled for Saturday, the RSI may even exhibit further growth in the coming days.

目前，比特幣價格的每日 RSI 似乎有望回到 50 左右的水平，表明處於中性區域。隨著週六即將到來的減半事件，RSI 甚至可能在未來幾天表現出進一步的成長。