比特币价格反弹，预示着持续增长的潜力

渣打银行预计，由于现货 BTC ETF 流量预计将流入 50B 至 100B 美元，因此比特币 (BTC) 到 2024 年底将达到 150,000 美元。此外，该银行数字资产研究主管预计，机构投资者可以将其持有的最多 20% 的黄金配置为比特币。

Bitcoin's Price Recovery Signals Potential for Continued Growth in the Midterm

比特币的价格复苏预示着中期持续增长的潜力

Amidst the ongoing price consolidation, Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a steady trajectory above the $66,000 mark, signaling a potential for further growth in the midterm. According to industry experts, a favorable macro environment and the maturation of spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could serve as catalysts for upward price movement.

在持续的价格整合中，比特币 (BTC) 一直保持在 66,000 美元大关上方的稳定轨迹，这表明中期有进一步增长的潜力。业内专家表示，有利的宏观环境和现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的成熟可能成为价格上涨的催化剂。

Positive Macroeconomic Outlook

积极的宏观经济前景

Nico Cordeiro, Chief Investment Officer of digital asset hedge fund Strix Leviathan, believes that the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy, despite inflationary pressures, will create a favorable environment for risk assets, including both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. "It's a good set-up for risks," he stated.

数字资产对冲基金Strix Leviathan首席投资官Nico Cordeiro认为，尽管存在通胀压力，美联储的鸽派货币政策将为包括科技股和加密货币在内的风险资产创造有利的环境。 “这是一个很好的风险设置，”他说。

ETF Maturity as a Catalyst

ETF 成熟度作为催化剂

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, emphasizes the significance of spot BTC ETF flow maturity. He anticipates inflows ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion within the next 18-24 months, based on the historical performance of gold ETFs. "The price of gold multiplied by 4.3 times, that could get us to the $150,000 – $200,000 range," Kendrick noted.

渣打银行数字资产研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 强调了现货 BTC ETF 流量成熟度的重要性。根据黄金 ETF 的历史表现，他预计未来 18-24 个月内资金流入将在 500 亿美元至 1000 亿美元之间。 Kendrick 指出：“黄金价格乘以 4.3 倍，可能达到 15 万至 20 万美元的范围。”

Institutional Adoption and Allocation

机构采用和分配

Kendrick also projects an increased allocation towards Bitcoin by institutional investors, suggesting a potential shift in the traditional gold-to-Bitcoin ratio. "Institutional investors' allocation to gold versus BTC could hit 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin," he stated.

肯德里克还预计机构投资者将增加对比特币的配置，这表明传统的黄金与比特币的比率可能会发生变化。他表示：“机构投资者对黄金与比特币的配置可能会达到 80% 黄金和 20% 比特币。”

Technical Analysis and Long-Term Outlook

技术分析和长期展望

While Bitcoin remains within a price range between $60,000 and $71,000, market analysts anticipate a breakout to signal further bullish momentum. However, market cycle analyst Rekt Capital suggests that extended consolidation could prolong the current bull market into Q3 2025.

虽然比特币价格仍保持在 60,000 美元至 71,000 美元之间，但市场分析师预计比特币的突破将预示进一步的看涨势头。然而，市场周期分析师 Rekt Capital 表示，长期盘整可能会将当前的牛市延续至 2025 年第三季度。

Quantitative Tightening and BTC Price

量化紧缩与BTC价格

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicts that quantitative tightening (QT), expected to commence in May, will alleviate the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. "After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices," he stated.

BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测，预计将于 5 月开始的量化紧缩（QT）将缓解比特币价格的下行压力。 “5月1日之后，QT的步伐放缓，耶伦开始忙着兑现支票以抬高资产价格，”他表示。

Conclusion

结论

The current market conditions and expert insights suggest a potential for Bitcoin to extend its upward trajectory in the midterm. A favorable macro environment, the maturation of spot BTC ETFs, and increased institutional adoption could drive price appreciation. However, the possibility of extended price consolidation highlights the importance of a decisive breakout above the resistance level to confirm further bullish sentiment.

当前的市场状况和专家的见解表明，比特币有可能在中期扩大其上涨轨迹。有利的宏观环境、现货 BTC ETF 的成熟以及机构采用的增加可能会推动价格上涨。然而，价格延续盘整的可能性凸显了决定性突破阻力位以确认进一步看涨情绪的重要性。