比特幣價格反彈，預示著持續成長的潛力

渣打銀行預計，由於現貨 BTC ETF 流量預計將流入 50B 至 100B 美元，因此比特幣 (BTC) 到 2024 年底將達到 15 萬美元。此外，該銀行數位資產研究主管預計，機構投資者可以將其持有的最多 20% 的黃金配置為比特幣。

Bitcoin's Price Recovery Signals Potential for Continued Growth in the Midterm

比特幣的價格復甦預示著中期持續成長的潛力

Amidst the ongoing price consolidation, Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a steady trajectory above the $66,000 mark, signaling a potential for further growth in the midterm. According to industry experts, a favorable macro environment and the maturation of spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could serve as catalysts for upward price movement.

在持續的價格整合中，比特幣 (BTC) 一直保持在 66,000 美元大關上方的穩定軌跡，這表明中期有進一步增長的潛力。業內專家表示，有利的宏觀環境和現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的成熟可能成為價格上漲的催化劑。

Positive Macroeconomic Outlook

積極的宏觀經濟前景

Nico Cordeiro, Chief Investment Officer of digital asset hedge fund Strix Leviathan, believes that the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy, despite inflationary pressures, will create a favorable environment for risk assets, including both technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. "It's a good set-up for risks," he stated.

數位資產對沖基金Strix Leviathan首席投資長Nico Cordeiro認為，儘管存在通膨壓力，聯準會的鴿派貨幣政策將為包括科技股和加密貨幣在內的風險資產創造有利的環境。 “這是一個很好的風險設置，”他說。

ETF Maturity as a Catalyst

ETF 成熟度作為催化劑

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, emphasizes the significance of spot BTC ETF flow maturity. He anticipates inflows ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion within the next 18-24 months, based on the historical performance of gold ETFs. "The price of gold multiplied by 4.3 times, that could get us to the $150,000 – $200,000 range," Kendrick noted.

渣打銀行數位資產研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 強調了現貨 BTC ETF 流量成熟度的重要性。根據黃金 ETF 的歷史表現，他預計未來 18-24 個月內資金流入將在 500 億美元至 1,000 億美元之間。 Kendrick 指出：“黃金價格乘以 4.3 倍，可能達到 15 萬至 20 萬美元的範圍。”

Institutional Adoption and Allocation

機構採用及分配

Kendrick also projects an increased allocation towards Bitcoin by institutional investors, suggesting a potential shift in the traditional gold-to-Bitcoin ratio. "Institutional investors' allocation to gold versus BTC could hit 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin," he stated.

肯德里克也預計機構投資者將增加對比特幣的配置，這表明傳統的黃金與比特幣的比率可能會改變。他表示：“機構投資者對黃金與比特幣的配置可能會達到 80% 黃金和 20% 比特幣。”

Technical Analysis and Long-Term Outlook

技術分析與長期展望

While Bitcoin remains within a price range between $60,000 and $71,000, market analysts anticipate a breakout to signal further bullish momentum. However, market cycle analyst Rekt Capital suggests that extended consolidation could prolong the current bull market into Q3 2025.

雖然比特幣價格仍保持在 60,000 美元至 71,000 美元之間，但市場分析師預計比特幣的突破將預示進一步的看漲勢頭。然而，市場週期分析師 Rekt Capital 表示，長期盤整可能會將目前的多頭市場延續至 2025 年第三季。

Quantitative Tightening and BTC Price

量化緊縮與BTC價格

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicts that quantitative tightening (QT), expected to commence in May, will alleviate the downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. "After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices," he stated.

BitMEX 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 預測，預計 5 月開始的量化緊縮（QT）將緩解比特幣價格的下行壓力。 「5月1日之後，QT的步伐放緩，耶倫開始忙著兌現支票以抬高資產價格，」他說。

Conclusion

結論

The current market conditions and expert insights suggest a potential for Bitcoin to extend its upward trajectory in the midterm. A favorable macro environment, the maturation of spot BTC ETFs, and increased institutional adoption could drive price appreciation. However, the possibility of extended price consolidation highlights the importance of a decisive breakout above the resistance level to confirm further bullish sentiment.

當前的市場狀況和專家的見解表明，比特幣有可能在中期擴大其上漲軌跡。有利的宏觀環境、現貨 BTC ETF 的成熟以及機構採用的增加可能會推動價格上漲。然而，價格延續盤整的可能性凸顯了決定性突破阻力位以確認進一步看漲情緒的重要性。