比特币 100,000 美元——推迟并未取消

自 11 月中旬以来，比特币的交易价格一直在 90,000 美元至 99,000 美元之间，创下历史新高。但每个 BTC 的神奇标志是 100,000 美元

Bitcoin has been trading at record levels since mid-November within a price corridor between $90,000 and $99,000. But the magic mark of $100,000 per BTC has so far remained insurmountable. Why is that?

自 11 月中旬以来，比特币的交易价格一直在 90,000 美元至 99,000 美元之间的区间内创下历史新高。但迄今为止，每 BTC 10 万美元的神奇目标仍然难以逾越。这是为什么？

The crypto year 2024 is entering its final stretch and the leading currency (BTC) is starting from a fundamentally excellent position. Until the US election, it was the Bitcoin ETFs in the USA that ensured new all-time highs of over $70,000.

2024 年加密货币年即将进入最后阶段，领先货币（BTC）从根本上处于良好的位置。在美国大选之前，美国的比特币 ETF 创下了超过 70,000 美元的历史新高。

With the success of Donald Trump, Bitcoin ignited a second turbo in November and has been trading at a stable level of over $90,000 for two weeks. BTC also temporarily cleared the hurdle of $99,000 on the last weekend in November – but the magic mark of $100,000 just won’t fall.

随着唐纳德·特朗普的成功，比特币在 11 月点燃了第二次涡轮增压，并已连续两周稳定在 9 万美元以上的水平。 BTC 在 11 月的最后一个周末也暂时突破了 99,000 美元的关口，但 100,000 美元的神奇大关不会跌破。

What could be the reasons why the BTC price curve is having such a hard time breaking into six-digit territory?

比特币价格曲线难以突破六位数区域的原因可能是什么？

Analysts such as Valentin Fournier from BRN point out that market participants have placed concentrated sell orders for Bitcoin just below the $100,000 mark. He estimates a good 4,000 Bitcoin with a market value of almost $400 million as a “substantial sell wall” that must first be overcome before new levels can be reached. However, given the ongoing capital inflows for the Bitcoin ETFs, this can hardly be the only reason. Data from SoSo, for example, show $353 million just yesterday, which were freshly invested in the BTC ETFs and automatically require the ETF issuers to buy more Bitcoin.

BRN 的 Valentin Fournier 等分析师指出，市场参与者已在略低于 10 万美元大关的位置集中下达了比特币卖单。他估计，市值近 4 亿美元的 4,000 个比特币是“巨大的抛售墙”，在达到新的水平之前必须首先克服它。然而，考虑到比特币 ETF 的持续资本流入，这并不是唯一的原因。例如，SoSo 的数据显示，就在昨天，有 3.53 亿美元新投资于 BTC ETF，并自动要求 ETF 发行人购买更多比特币。

The macroeconomic situation in the USA and the US dollar is not sending any clear signals. The dollar has regained strength since Trump’s election victory, and threatened punitive tariffs on imports are raising fears of a slowdown in economic growth.

美国的宏观经济形势和美元并没有发出任何明确的信号。自特朗普当选以来，美元重新走强，并威胁对进口产品征收惩罚性关税，引发了人们对经济增长放缓的担忧。

Bitcoin, with its image as “digital gold” and store of value, is having a hard time pricing in such risks. Investors are also looking ahead to publications on US inflation and the economic climate this week. For Bitcoin, it will also be important whether the US central bank lowers the key interest rate again on December 18, which has usually strengthened BTC in the past.

比特币被誉为“数字黄金”和价值储存手段，但在定价此类风险方面却遇到了困难。投资者还期待本周有关美国通胀和经济气候的出版物。对于比特币来说，美国央行是否会在 12 月 18 日再次降低关键利率也很重要，这在过去通常会增强比特币的价格。

In the short term, the continuation of the Bitcoin rally is apparently being hampered by the overall crypto market. US altcoins such as Solana and Cardano are booming, led by XRP (Ripple) – investors are also restructuring portfolios because they see greater profit opportunities in this segment than in Bitcoin for the moment. This can also be seen in the fact that Bitcoin dominance in the overall crypto market has recently declined, currently at 52 percent.

短期来看，比特币上涨的持续显然受到整个加密货币市场的阻碍。在 XRP（瑞波币）的引领下，Solana 和 Cardano 等美国山寨币正在蓬勃发展——投资者也在重组投资组合，因为他们认为这一领域目前比比特币有更大的利润机会。这也可以从比特币在整个加密货币市场的主导地位最近下降的事实中看出，目前为 52%。

Conclusion: Bitcoin $100,000 — postponed is not cancelled

结论：比特币10万美元——推迟并没有取消

The current price levels of Bitcoin mean that virtually every BTC investor is in profit. This should not be forgotten by those who are impatiently waiting for the magic mark of $100,000 per Bitcoin to fall. The next attempt to overcome this hurdle is in the air – as is the possibility that the outgoing US government will sell off almost 20,000 confiscated Bitcoin (market value today: almost $2 billion) in its final stages, thereby creating short-term price pressure.

比特币目前的价格水平意味着几乎每个比特币投资者都在盈利。那些焦急地等待每枚比特币 10 万美元跌落的人不应该忘记这一点。克服这一障碍的下一次尝试正在酝酿之中——即将卸任的美国政府有可能在最后阶段出售近 20,000 个没收的比特币（目前市值：近 20 亿美元），从而造成短期价格压力。

In the medium and long term, analysts such as Matt Hougan of Bitwise or Dan Morehead of Pantera are already setting very different Bitcoin price targets than $100,000. Morehead expects $740,000 per BTC in 2028, Hougan thinks $500,000 for Bitcoin by the end of Trump’s term in office is realistic. Hardly anyone fears an abrupt end to the BTC rally, after all, with Donald Trump in the White House, Bitcoin is even expected to play a role in US monetary policy.

从中长期来看，Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 或 Pantera 的 Dan Morehead 等分析师已经设定了与 10 万美元不同的比特币价格目标。 Morehead 预计 2028 年比特币价格将达到 74 万美元，Hougan 认为在特朗普任期结束时比特币价格达到 50 万美元是现实的。几乎没有人担心比特币涨势会突然结束，毕竟随着唐纳德·特朗普入主白宫，比特币甚至有望在美国货币政策中发挥作用。

(Featured image by Oleksandr P via Pexels)

（精选图片由 Oleksandr P 通过 Pexels 提供）

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