比特幣 10 萬美元——推遲並未取消

自 11 月中旬以來，比特幣的交易價格一直在 90,000 美元至 99,000 美元之間，創下歷史新高。但每個 BTC 的神奇標誌是 10 萬美元

Bitcoin has been trading at record levels since mid-November within a price corridor between $90,000 and $99,000. But the magic mark of $100,000 per BTC has so far remained insurmountable. Why is that?

自 11 月中旬以來，比特幣的交易價格一直在 90,000 美元至 99,000 美元之間的區間內創下歷史新高。但迄今為止，每 BTC 10 萬美元的神奇目標仍然難以克服。這是為什麼？

The crypto year 2024 is entering its final stretch and the leading currency (BTC) is starting from a fundamentally excellent position. Until the US election, it was the Bitcoin ETFs in the USA that ensured new all-time highs of over $70,000.

2024 年加密貨幣年即將進入最後階段，領先貨幣（BTC）從根本上處於良好的位置。在美國大選之前，美國的比特幣 ETF 創下了超過 7 萬美元的歷史新高。

With the success of Donald Trump, Bitcoin ignited a second turbo in November and has been trading at a stable level of over $90,000 for two weeks. BTC also temporarily cleared the hurdle of $99,000 on the last weekend in November – but the magic mark of $100,000 just won’t fall.

隨著唐納德·川普的成功，比特幣在 11 月點燃了第二次渦輪增壓，並連續兩週穩定在 9 萬美元以上的水平。 BTC 在 11 月的最後一個週末也暫時突破了 99,000 美元的關口，但 100,000 美元的神奇大關不會跌破。

What could be the reasons why the BTC price curve is having such a hard time breaking into six-digit territory?

比特幣價格曲線難以突破六位數區域的原因可能是什麼？

Analysts such as Valentin Fournier from BRN point out that market participants have placed concentrated sell orders for Bitcoin just below the $100,000 mark. He estimates a good 4,000 Bitcoin with a market value of almost $400 million as a “substantial sell wall” that must first be overcome before new levels can be reached. However, given the ongoing capital inflows for the Bitcoin ETFs, this can hardly be the only reason. Data from SoSo, for example, show $353 million just yesterday, which were freshly invested in the BTC ETFs and automatically require the ETF issuers to buy more Bitcoin.

BRN 的 Valentin Fournier 等分析師指出，市場參與者已在略低於 10 萬美元大關的位置集中下達了比特幣賣單。他估計，市值近 4 億美元的 4,000 個比特幣是“巨大的拋售牆”，在達到新的水平之前必須先克服它。然而，考慮到比特幣 ETF 的持續資本流入，這並不是唯一的原因。例如，SoSo 的數據顯示，就在昨天，有 3.53 億美元新投資於 BTC ETF，並自動要求 ETF 發行人購買更多比特幣。

The macroeconomic situation in the USA and the US dollar is not sending any clear signals. The dollar has regained strength since Trump’s election victory, and threatened punitive tariffs on imports are raising fears of a slowdown in economic growth.

美國的宏觀經濟情勢和美元並沒有發出任何明確的訊號。自川普當選以來，美元重新走強，並威脅對進口產品徵收懲罰性關稅，引發了人們對經濟成長放緩的擔憂。

Bitcoin, with its image as “digital gold” and store of value, is having a hard time pricing in such risks. Investors are also looking ahead to publications on US inflation and the economic climate this week. For Bitcoin, it will also be important whether the US central bank lowers the key interest rate again on December 18, which has usually strengthened BTC in the past.

比特幣被譽為「數位黃金」和價值儲存手段，但在定價此類風險方面卻遇到了困難。投資者也期待本周有關美國通膨和經濟氣候的出版物。對於比特幣來說，美國央行是否會在 12 月 18 日再次降低關鍵利率也很重要，這在過去通常會增強比特幣的價格。

In the short term, the continuation of the Bitcoin rally is apparently being hampered by the overall crypto market. US altcoins such as Solana and Cardano are booming, led by XRP (Ripple) – investors are also restructuring portfolios because they see greater profit opportunities in this segment than in Bitcoin for the moment. This can also be seen in the fact that Bitcoin dominance in the overall crypto market has recently declined, currently at 52 percent.

短期來看，比特幣上漲的持續性顯然受到整個加密貨幣市場的阻礙。在 XRP（瑞波幣）的引領下，Solana 和 Cardano 等美國山寨幣正在蓬勃發展——投資者也在重組投資組合，因為他們認為這一領域目前比比特幣有更大的利潤機會。這也可以從比特幣在整個加密貨幣市場的主導地位最近下降的事實中看出，目前為 52%。

Conclusion: Bitcoin $100,000 — postponed is not cancelled

結論：比特幣10萬美元－延後並沒有取消

The current price levels of Bitcoin mean that virtually every BTC investor is in profit. This should not be forgotten by those who are impatiently waiting for the magic mark of $100,000 per Bitcoin to fall. The next attempt to overcome this hurdle is in the air – as is the possibility that the outgoing US government will sell off almost 20,000 confiscated Bitcoin (market value today: almost $2 billion) in its final stages, thereby creating short-term price pressure.

比特幣目前的價格水準意味著幾乎每個比特幣投資者都在獲利。那些焦急地等待每枚比特幣 10 萬美元跌落的人不應該忘記這一點。克服這一障礙的下一次嘗試正在醞釀中——即將卸任的美國政府有可能在最後階段出售近 20,000 個沒收的比特幣（目前市值：近 20 億美元），從而造成短期價格壓力。

In the medium and long term, analysts such as Matt Hougan of Bitwise or Dan Morehead of Pantera are already setting very different Bitcoin price targets than $100,000. Morehead expects $740,000 per BTC in 2028, Hougan thinks $500,000 for Bitcoin by the end of Trump’s term in office is realistic. Hardly anyone fears an abrupt end to the BTC rally, after all, with Donald Trump in the White House, Bitcoin is even expected to play a role in US monetary policy.

從中長期來看，Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 或 Pantera 的 Dan Morehead 等分析師已經設定了與 10 萬美元不同的比特幣價格目標。 Morehead 預計 2028 年比特幣價格將達到 74 萬美元，Hougan 認為在川普任期結束時比特幣價格達到 50 萬美元是現實的。幾乎沒有人擔心比特幣漲勢會突然結束，畢竟隨著唐納川普入主白宮，比特幣甚至有望在美國貨幣政策中發揮作用。

(Featured image by Oleksandr P via Pexels)

（精選圖片由 Oleksandr P 透過 Pexels 提供）

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