尽管价格下降，为什么比特币长位置会增加？

尽管由于特朗普的关税，比特币价格的短期下跌，但比特币长位的增加是一个有趣的发展。

When President Trump announced or imposed tariffs on various international goods, particularly those coming from China, the global markets reacted. The tariffs themselves were a form of protectionist policy intended to protect American manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit. While that might seem like a local issue in traditional finance, it had far-reaching effects on global markets, including Bitcoin.

当特朗普总统宣布或征收各种国际商品，尤其是来自中国的商品时，全球市场做出了反应。关税本身是旨在保护美国制造业并减少贸易赤字的贸易保护主义政策形式。尽管这似乎是传统金融中的本地问题，但它对包括比特币在内的全球市场产生了深远的影响。

Tariffs often introduce a degree of uncertainty into financial markets. Investors typically dislike uncertainty because it makes it difficult to predict economic growth, inflation, and business conditions. When tariffs are imposed, businesses may face higher costs for imported goods, which can erode profit margins, leading to market volatility.

关税通常会向金融市场引入一定程度的不确定性。投资者通常不喜欢不确定性，因为它很难预测经济增长，通货膨胀和业务状况。当征收关税时，企业可能面临进口商品的较高成本，这可能会削弱利润率，从而导致市场波动。

For Bitcoin, which has traditionally been considered a risk-on asset, this uncertainty can lead to price declines. When tariffs are introduced, particularly when there’s a perception of a potential trade war or worsening economic conditions, riskier assets like Bitcoin often experience sell-offs as investors flee to safer havens such as gold or U.S. Treasury bonds. This was evident when Bitcoin’s price saw declines after President Trump’s tariff announcements. The cryptocurrency’s market sentiment during this period leaned more towards caution as global financial markets reacted negatively to the risk of an economic slowdown.

对于传统上被认为是风险资产的比特币而言，这种不确定性可能导致价格下降。当征收关税时，尤其是当对潜在的贸易战或经济状况恶化的看法时，像比特币这样的风险资产经常会出售，因为投资者逃往诸如黄金或美国国库债券之类的更安全的避风港。当比特币的价格下降之后，特朗普总统的关税宣布宣布后，这一点很明显。在此期间，加密货币的市场情绪更加倾向于谨慎，因为全球金融市场对经济放缓的风险产生负面反应。

Moreover, Bitcoin is still closely tied to broader market conditions. When traditional markets react negatively, even Bitcoin—often considered an uncorrelated asset—may suffer as investors liquidate riskier assets to raise cash or reduce exposure. This was particularly the case when tariffs led to stock market declines and heightened risk aversion across global markets.

此外，比特币仍然与更广泛的市场状况密切相关。当传统市场做出负面反应时，即使是比特币（通常被认为是不相关的资产）也可能会遭受投资者的清算资产来筹集现金或减少敞口。当关税导致股票市场下降并增加了全球市场的风险规避时，情况尤其如此。

Now, let’s explore some of the reasons behind this interesting development, starting with the psychology of trading behavior.

现在，让我们探讨这一有趣发展背后的一些原因，从贸易行为的心理学开始。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value Proposition

比特币的长期价值主张

Many Bitcoin investors view the cryptocurrency as a long-term store of value rather than a short-term speculative asset. While short-term fluctuations might have an impact on Bitcoin’s price, many institutional and retail investors are still betting on Bitcoin’s long-term growth, especially in the face of rising inflation, global economic uncertainty, and increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies.

许多比特币投资者将加密货币视为长期价值存储，而不是短期投机资产。尽管短期波动可能会影响比特币的价格，但许多机构和零售投资者仍在押注比特币的长期增长，尤其是面对通货膨胀率上升，全球经济不确定性以及加密货币的提高。

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold” by many investors—an asset that can act as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. With the imposition of tariffs, there are concerns about the impact on inflation rates and the stability of fiat currencies. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, becomes more attractive as an asset that cannot be manipulated through monetary policies like central banks’ printing of money or through the impacts of trade tariffs.

许多投资者越来越将比特币视为“数字黄金”，这项资产可以作为对通货膨胀和货币贬值的对冲。随着关税的征收，人们担心对通货膨胀率和法定货币的稳定性的影响。比特币以固定的2100万枚硬币供应，作为一种无法通过货币政策来操纵的资产，例如中央银行印刷货币或通过贸易关税的影响来操纵。

For many traders and investors, this view outweighs the short-term price volatility that may occur in response to tariffs or other geopolitical events. As a result, long positions, which are betting on Bitcoin’s future price increase, have increased as more people view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic instability.

对于许多交易者和投资者而言，这种观点大于对关税或其他地缘政治事件可能发生的短期价格波动。结果，随着越来越多的人将比特币视为避风港资产，尤其是在经济不稳定时期，长期押注比特币的未来价格上涨，这些头寸已上涨。

Increased Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin

增加比特币的机构采用

In addition to retail investors, institutional adoption of Bitcoin has been increasing steadily over the past few years. Large corporations, hedge funds, and investment firms have started viewing Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset, but as a legitimate part of diversified investment portfolios. As institutional players continue to pour capital into Bitcoin, long positions are naturally going to increase.

除散户投资者外，在过去的几年中，对比特币的机构采用一直在稳步增长。大型公司，对冲基金和投资公司已经开始将比特币视为投机资产，而且是多元化投资组合的合法部分。随着机构参与者继续将资本投入比特币，自然而然的头寸将会增加。

During periods of market turmoil, institutions are less likely to abandon their positions entirely, especially if they have a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin. Rather than fearing short-term price declines, many institutional investors are more focused on Bitcoin’s fundamental value and its potential to outperform traditional financial assets in the long run.

在市场动荡时期，机构完全不太可能完全放弃其立场，尤其是如果他们对比特币有长期看涨的看法。从长远来看，许多机构投资者并不担心短期价格下降，而是更专注于比特币的基本价值及其在长期以来超过传统金融资产的潜力。

MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other notable institutional players have taken significant stakes in Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly important asset class. These institutional investors are less likely to be swayed by short-term market fluctuations and more focused on the long-term view that Bitcoin will be a critical part of the global financial system.

MicroStrategy，Tesla和其他著名的机构参与者在比特币中采取了重要股份，这加强了比特币正成为越来越重要的资产类别的想法。这些机构投资者不太可能被短期市场波动所挥之不去，而更专注于长期观点，即比特币将成为全球金融体系的关键部分。

The Role of Leverage in the Market

杠杆在市场上的作用

The increasing number of long positions can also be partially attributed to the growing popularity of leveraged trading. As cryptocurrency exchanges and financial products become more sophisticated, traders have more opportunities to use leverage—borrowing money to increase the size of their trades. This allows them to take larger positions than they could with their own capital, amplifying their potential profits (and losses).

越来越多的长位置也可以部分归因于杠杆交易的日益普及。随着加密货币交易所和金融产品变得越来越复杂，交易者有更多机会利用杠杆作用 - 借钱以增加其交易规模。这使他们能够比自己的资本更大的职位，从而扩大了潜在利润（和损失）。

For many traders, particularly those betting on Bitcoin’s long-term price increase, leverage provides a way to maximize gains when they believe the price will eventually recover. Even if Bitcoin drops in response to negative news like tariffs, these traders may expect that Bitcoin will rebound over time, thus justifying their long positions. The growing access to leverage means that more traders can take on more risk, believing that Bitcoin’s long-term potential will ultimately prevail.

对于许多交易者，尤其是那些押注比特币长期价格上涨的交易者，杠杆时，当他们认为价格最终会恢复时，杠杆提供了一种最大化收益的方法。即使比特币响应关税等负面新闻，这些交易者可能会期望比特币会随着时间的流逝而反弹，从而证明其长位是合理的。不断增长的杠杆率意味着更多的交易者可以承担更多的风险，因为认为比特币的长期潜力最终将占上风。

The Contrarian Nature of the Crypto Market

加密市场的逆势性质

Cryptocurrency markets often operate with a contrarian mindset. When traditional financial markets react negatively to events like tariffs, the crypto market sometimes moves in the opposite direction. Many Bitcoin investors believe that the traditional financial system is broken, and tariffs or other governmental interventions will only accelerate the need for decentralized currencies

加密货币市场通常以逆势思维方式运作。当传统金融市场对关税等事件的反应负面反应时，加密货币市场有时会朝相反的方向发展。许多比特币投资者认为，传统的金融体系已损坏，关税或其他政府干预只会加速对分散货币的需求