儘管價格下降，為什麼比特幣長位置會增加？

儘管由於特朗普的關稅，比特幣價格的短期下跌，但比特幣長位的增加是一個有趣的發展。

When President Trump announced or imposed tariffs on various international goods, particularly those coming from China, the global markets reacted. The tariffs themselves were a form of protectionist policy intended to protect American manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit. While that might seem like a local issue in traditional finance, it had far-reaching effects on global markets, including Bitcoin.

當特朗普總統宣布或徵收各種國際商品，尤其是來自中國的商品時，全球市場做出了反應。關稅本身是旨在保護美國製造業並減少貿易赤字的貿易保護主義政策形式。儘管這似乎是傳統金融中的本地問題，但它對包括比特幣在內的全球市場產生了深遠的影響。

Tariffs often introduce a degree of uncertainty into financial markets. Investors typically dislike uncertainty because it makes it difficult to predict economic growth, inflation, and business conditions. When tariffs are imposed, businesses may face higher costs for imported goods, which can erode profit margins, leading to market volatility.

關稅通常會向金融市場引入一定程度的不確定性。投資者通常不喜歡不確定性，因為它很難預測經濟增長，通貨膨脹和業務狀況。當徵收關稅時，企業可能面臨進口商品的較高成本，這可能會削弱利潤率，從而導致市場波動。

For Bitcoin, which has traditionally been considered a risk-on asset, this uncertainty can lead to price declines. When tariffs are introduced, particularly when there’s a perception of a potential trade war or worsening economic conditions, riskier assets like Bitcoin often experience sell-offs as investors flee to safer havens such as gold or U.S. Treasury bonds. This was evident when Bitcoin’s price saw declines after President Trump’s tariff announcements. The cryptocurrency’s market sentiment during this period leaned more towards caution as global financial markets reacted negatively to the risk of an economic slowdown.

對於傳統上被認為是風險資產的比特幣而言，這種不確定性可能導致價格下降。當徵收關稅時，尤其是當對潛在的貿易戰或經濟狀況惡化的看法時，像比特幣這樣的風險資產經常會出售，因為投資者逃往諸如黃金或美國國庫債券之類的更安全的避風港。當比特幣的價格下降之後，特朗普總統的關稅宣布宣布後，這一點很明顯。在此期間，加密貨幣的市場情緒更加傾向於謹慎，因為全球金融市場對經濟放緩的風險產生負面反應。

Moreover, Bitcoin is still closely tied to broader market conditions. When traditional markets react negatively, even Bitcoin—often considered an uncorrelated asset—may suffer as investors liquidate riskier assets to raise cash or reduce exposure. This was particularly the case when tariffs led to stock market declines and heightened risk aversion across global markets.

此外，比特幣仍然與更廣泛的市場狀況密切相關。當傳統市場做出負面反應時，即使是比特幣（通常被認為是不相關的資產）也可能會遭受投資者的清算資產來籌集現金或減少敞口。當關稅導致股票市場下降並增加了全球市場的風險規避時，情況尤其如此。

Now, let’s explore some of the reasons behind this interesting development, starting with the psychology of trading behavior.

現在，讓我們探討這一有趣發展背後的一些原因，從貿易行為的心理學開始。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value Proposition

比特幣的長期價值主張

Many Bitcoin investors view the cryptocurrency as a long-term store of value rather than a short-term speculative asset. While short-term fluctuations might have an impact on Bitcoin’s price, many institutional and retail investors are still betting on Bitcoin’s long-term growth, especially in the face of rising inflation, global economic uncertainty, and increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies.

許多比特幣投資者將加密貨幣視為長期價值存儲，而不是短期投機資產。儘管短期波動可能會影響比特幣的價格，但許多機構和零售投資者仍在押注比特幣的長期增長，尤其是面對通貨膨脹率上升，全球經濟不確定性以及加密貨幣的提高。

Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold” by many investors—an asset that can act as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. With the imposition of tariffs, there are concerns about the impact on inflation rates and the stability of fiat currencies. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, becomes more attractive as an asset that cannot be manipulated through monetary policies like central banks’ printing of money or through the impacts of trade tariffs.

許多投資者越來越將比特幣視為“數字黃金”，這項資產可以作為對通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的對沖。隨著關稅的徵收，人們擔心對通貨膨脹率和法定貨幣的穩定性的影響。比特幣以固定的2100萬枚硬幣供應，作為一種無法通過貨幣政策來操縱的資產，例如中央銀行印刷貨幣或通過貿易關稅的影響來操縱。

For many traders and investors, this view outweighs the short-term price volatility that may occur in response to tariffs or other geopolitical events. As a result, long positions, which are betting on Bitcoin’s future price increase, have increased as more people view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic instability.

對於許多交易者和投資者而言，這種觀點大於對關稅或其他地緣政治事件可能發生的短期價格波動。結果，隨著越來越多的人將比特幣視為避風港資產，尤其是在經濟不穩定時期，長期押注比特幣的未來價格上漲，這些頭寸已上漲。

Increased Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin

增加比特幣的機構採用

In addition to retail investors, institutional adoption of Bitcoin has been increasing steadily over the past few years. Large corporations, hedge funds, and investment firms have started viewing Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset, but as a legitimate part of diversified investment portfolios. As institutional players continue to pour capital into Bitcoin, long positions are naturally going to increase.

除散戶投資者外，在過去的幾年中，對比特幣的機構採用一直在穩步增長。大型公司，對沖基金和投資公司已經開始將比特幣視為投機資產，而且是多元化投資組合的合法部分。隨著機構參與者繼續將資本投入比特幣，自然而然的頭寸將會增加。

During periods of market turmoil, institutions are less likely to abandon their positions entirely, especially if they have a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin. Rather than fearing short-term price declines, many institutional investors are more focused on Bitcoin’s fundamental value and its potential to outperform traditional financial assets in the long run.

在市場動盪時期，機構完全不太可能完全放棄其立場，尤其是如果他們對比特幣有長期看漲的看法。從長遠來看，許多機構投資者並不擔心短期價格下降，而是更專注於比特幣的基本價值及其在長期以來超過傳統金融資產的潛力。

MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other notable institutional players have taken significant stakes in Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly important asset class. These institutional investors are less likely to be swayed by short-term market fluctuations and more focused on the long-term view that Bitcoin will be a critical part of the global financial system.

MicroStrategy，Tesla和其他著名的機構參與者在比特幣中採取了重要股份，這加強了比特幣正成為越來越重要的資產類別的想法。這些機構投資者不太可能被短期市場波動所揮之不去，而更專注於長期觀點，即比特幣將成為全球金融體系的關鍵部分。

The Role of Leverage in the Market

槓桿在市場上的作用

The increasing number of long positions can also be partially attributed to the growing popularity of leveraged trading. As cryptocurrency exchanges and financial products become more sophisticated, traders have more opportunities to use leverage—borrowing money to increase the size of their trades. This allows them to take larger positions than they could with their own capital, amplifying their potential profits (and losses).

越來越多的長位置也可以部分歸因於槓桿交易的日益普及。隨著加密貨幣交易所和金融產品變得越來越複雜，交易者有更多機會利用槓桿作用 - 借錢以增加其交易規模。這使他們能夠比自己的資本更大的職位，從而擴大了潛在利潤（和損失）。

For many traders, particularly those betting on Bitcoin’s long-term price increase, leverage provides a way to maximize gains when they believe the price will eventually recover. Even if Bitcoin drops in response to negative news like tariffs, these traders may expect that Bitcoin will rebound over time, thus justifying their long positions. The growing access to leverage means that more traders can take on more risk, believing that Bitcoin’s long-term potential will ultimately prevail.

對於許多交易者，尤其是那些押注比特幣長期價格上漲的交易者，槓桿時，當他們認為價格最終會恢復時，槓桿提供了一種最大化收益的方法。即使比特幣響應關稅等負面新聞，這些交易者也可能期望比特幣會隨著時間的流逝而反彈，從而證明其長位是合理的。不斷增長的槓桿率意味著更多的交易者可以承擔更多的風險，因為認為比特幣的長期潛力最終將佔上風。

The Contrarian Nature of the Crypto Market

加密市場的逆勢性質

Cryptocurrency markets often operate with a contrarian mindset. When traditional financial markets react negatively to events like tariffs, the crypto market sometimes moves in the opposite direction. Many Bitcoin investors believe that the traditional financial system is broken, and tariffs or other governmental interventions will only accelerate the need for decentralized currencies

加密貨幣市場通常以逆勢思維方式運作。當傳統金融市場對關稅等事件的反應負面反應時，加密貨幣市場有時會朝相反的方向發展。許多比特幣投資者認為，傳統的金融體系已損壞，關稅或其他政府乾預只會加速對分散貨幣的需求